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CMCO vs PCAR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) vs. PACCAR (PCAR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different market cap profiles: PCAR is a large-cap truck manufacturer (roughly $64 billion market cap), while CMCO is a small-cap material-handling specialist with a market cap near $420 million.
- Diverging earnings trends: CMCO has reported recent net losses tied to a major acquisition, while PCAR remains solidly profitable despite a cyclical earnings decline.
- Contrasting balance sheets: CMCO carries elevated leverage (net leverage near 5.1x) after its Kito Crosby acquisition, whereas PCAR maintains a more conservative capital structure.
- Sentiment and momentum differ: CMCO trades near the lower end of its 52-week range with weak relative strength, while PCAR has recovered toward recent highs on improving truck-market expectations.
- Distinct risk profiles: CMCO's story is integration and deleveraging risk; PCAR's is cyclical freight and truck-demand exposure.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two manufacturers in very different corners of the industrial economy. CMCO (Columbus McKinnon) supplies hoists, cranes, actuators, and motion-control equipment used across factory floors and material-handling operations. PCAR (PACCAR) designs and builds heavy-duty commercial trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands. While both names are sensitive to industrial demand, their scale, growth drivers, and risk profiles diverge sharply. This comparison is most relevant to traders and investors weighing relative performance and market positioning between a transformative small-cap turnaround story and a mature, dividend-paying cyclical leader.
CMCO Overview and Recent Performance
Columbus McKinnon is a global provider of intelligent motion-control and material-handling solutions, serving industries from manufacturing and construction to energy and logistics. The company's recent activity has been dominated by its transformational, roughly $2.7 billion acquisition of Kito Crosby, which roughly doubled its sales base but also lifted total debt above $2.3 billion and pushed its credit-agreement net leverage ratio to approximately 5.1x. In its fiscal 2026, the company reported order growth of 20% and net sales growth of 24%, reflecting the acquisition plus underlying organic demand.
Profitability, however, has been pressured. Goodwill impairment charges and acquisition-related costs drove reported net losses in recent periods, and management withdrew standalone guidance before the deal closed. For fiscal 2027, the company has issued guidance for revenue of roughly $2.05 billion to $2.12 billion and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $390 million to $410 million. Market sentiment has reflected these headwinds: the stock trades well below its 52-week high, with its relative strength index (RSI, a momentum gauge) near 33, indicating weak near-term momentum. A beta of about 1.43 also signals above-average volatility.
PCAR Overview and Recent Performance
PACCAR is a premier global commercial-truck manufacturer, competing through its Kenworth and Peterbilt brands in North America and DAF in Europe and other regions, complemented by a sizable parts business and PACCAR Financial Services. Unlike CMCO, PCAR operates at a much larger scale, generating annual revenue near $28.4 billion in 2025. That figure represented a 15.5% year-over-year decline, and net income fell roughly 43%, reflecting softer freight markets, tariffs, and emissions-policy uncertainty across the truck industry.
Even so, PCAR's results remained profitable — marking an 87th consecutive year of earnings — and were the fourth-highest profit year in company history on an adjusted basis. Parts and Financial Services both posted record revenue, providing a structural cushion against cyclical truck volumes. Management has pointed to improving freight fundamentals, tariff clarity, and a 2026 North American Class 8 market forecast of roughly 230,000 to 270,000 units as supportive factors. The stock has recovered toward the upper portion of its trading range in recent weeks, and the company's long dividend history (including a yield near 3%) reflects a more mature, cash-generative model.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is business model and scale. PCAR is a cyclical, large-cap original equipment manufacturer (OEM, a producer of finished vehicles sold under its own brands) with diversified revenue across trucks, parts, and financing. CMCO is a smaller, acquisition-driven industrial-technology platform now integrating a deal that more than doubled its size.
Growth drivers also differ. CMCO's near-term thesis centers on integration, cost synergies, and deleveraging, with guidance pointing to meaningful EBITDA expansion in fiscal 2027. PCAR's drivers are external and cyclical — freight rates, fleet replacement cycles, and regulatory milestones — plus the steady contribution of its parts and finance arms.
On risk, CMCO's elevated debt load and integration execution represent the primary concerns, alongside goodwill-related accounting charges. PCAR's risks are more tied to the freight cycle and potential margin pressure from manufacturing transitions. From a sentiment standpoint, PCAR's recent relative strength and stable dividend contrast with CMCO's weaker momentum and higher volatility, though CMCO's depressed valuation could reflect a higher degree of discounted risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward PCAR in the current environment. Its trend consistency, demonstrated profitability, more conservative leverage, and improving cyclical backdrop offer the kind of stability and momentum signals that quantitative models tend to reward. CMCO carries a higher degree of uncertainty tied to integration and balance-sheet repair, and its weaker relative strength suggests the market has not yet confirmed a durable trend reversal. That said, the comparison is probabilistic rather than definitive: a successful deleveraging and integration story at CMCO could change its risk-reward profile materially. AI-driven rankings are dynamic, and relative positioning between these two names could shift as new earnings and technical signals emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMCO is a Hold and PCAR is a Buy.
CMCO sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
CMCO saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 14, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMCO as a result. In 57 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The 10-day moving average for CMCO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMCO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMCO entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for CMCO's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.70% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMCO advanced for three days, in 196 of 282 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
CMCO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 32 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.705) is normal, around the industry mean (2.561). P/E Ratio (-1.467) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.311) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CMCO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CMCO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
PCAR's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for PCAR moved out of oversold territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 19 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 13 of the 19 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PCAR just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where PCAR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +1.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PCAR advanced for three days, in 199 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 59 cases where PCAR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PCAR as a result. In 56 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The 50-day moving average for PCAR moved below the 200-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PCAR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
The Aroon Indicator for PCAR entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.839) is normal, around the industry mean (2.561). P/E Ratio (23.023) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.828) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.241) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PCAR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CMCO | PCAR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 32 Undervalued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMCO's Valuation (32) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as PCAR (60). This means that CMCO’s stock grew similarly to PCAR’s over the last 12 months.
PCAR's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for CMCO (100). This means that PCAR’s stock grew significantly faster than CMCO’s over the last 12 months.
PCAR's SMR Rating (62) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMCO (97). This means that PCAR’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMCO’s over the last 12 months.
PCAR's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CMCO (69). This means that PCAR’s stock grew similarly to CMCO’s over the last 12 months.
PCAR's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for CMCO (97). This means that PCAR’s stock grew significantly faster than CMCO’s over the last 12 months.
| CMCO | PCAR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 16 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMCO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PCAR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CMCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PCAR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMCO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PCAR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMCO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PCAR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CMCO (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -8.33% price change this week, while PCAR (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was +1.53% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -3.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMCO is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PCAR is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-3.15% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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PCAR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PCAR has been loosely correlated with OSK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PCAR jumps, then OSK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PCAR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 100% | -0.57% | ||
| OSK - PCAR | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.91% | ||
| TWI - PCAR | 56% Loosely correlated | +0.29% | ||
| CNH - PCAR | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.52% | ||
| TEX - PCAR | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.81% | ||
| ACA - PCAR | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
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