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OSK vs PCAR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) vs. PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Oshkosh (OSK) is diversifying through its Access, Vocational, and Transport segments, but margin pressure and a slower fire truck production ramp are weighing on near-term earnings.
- PACCAR (PCAR) is seeing a "positive inflection" in North American truck demand, supported by record parts revenues and a robust balance sheet.
- Both companies are cyclical industrials, but OSK carries more exposure to construction and defense, while PCAR is tied to the freight and heavy-duty truck cycle.
- OSK recently trimmed its 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share guidance, whereas PCAR has sustained a steadier earnings trajectory.
- Analyst sentiment leans constructive on both, though PCAR's broader consensus targets and recent upgrades signal comparatively stronger conviction.
Introduction
Investors comparing OSK and PCAR are essentially weighing two different corners of the commercial vehicle and industrial equipment economy. Oshkosh Corporation builds purpose-built vehicles spanning access equipment, fire apparatus, defense vehicles, and postal delivery trucks, while PACCAR Inc manufactures premium heavy-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates alongside a sizable parts and financial services business. This stock comparison is relevant for investors seeking exposure to industrial capital goods, cyclical recovery themes, and companies with strong backlogs and shareholder returns. Understanding the relative performance and market positioning of these two names can help traders and long-term investors assess where momentum, stability, and catalysts currently align.
OSK Overview and Recent Performance
OSK, or Oshkosh Corporation, operates three reportable segments: Access (aerial work platforms and telehandlers under JLG), Vocational (fire trucks, refuse vehicles, and airport products), and Transport (defense vehicles and the Next Generation Delivery Vehicle, or NGDV, built for the United States Postal Service). In recent quarters, the company has posted solid revenue growth while grappling with profitability pressures. Second-quarter sales rose 6.7% year over year to about $2.92 billion, but adjusted earnings per share declined, reflecting unfavorable sales mix and higher manufacturing overhead.
Sentiment has been shaped by a mix of positives and headwinds. Access orders strengthened on data center and infrastructure demand, and the NGDV program continues to ramp, but fire truck production improvements have come slower than expected, prompting management to trim full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. The refuse business remains soft as industrial customers stay cautious on capital spending. Despite these challenges, free cash flow has improved sharply, and the company maintains a multi-billion-dollar backlog that provides revenue visibility.
PCAR Overview and Recent Performance
PCAR, or PACCAR Inc, designs and manufactures light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands, while also generating earnings from parts distribution and financial services. Recent market activity has been defined by an improving freight environment. Management has cited a "positive inflection" in the U.S. and Canada truck market as reduced trucking capacity supports higher freight rates and fleet replacement demand.
Financial results have been relatively steady, with record quarterly parts revenues and solid financial services profits offsetting softer truck unit volumes. In its most recent quarter, PACCAR reported earnings growth despite a modest decline in global truck deliveries, as higher truck profitability and aftermarket strength drove results. The company benefits from an A+/A1 credit rating, a strong cash position, and disciplined capital allocation that includes dividend payments and buybacks. Analyst sentiment has firmed, with at least one major firm upgrading the stock in recent weeks, reflecting growing conviction in the North American truck cycle recovery.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks lies in their end markets and growth drivers. OSK offers diversification across construction, municipal, defense, and logistics applications, giving it multiple revenue streams but also exposing it to execution risks across several distinct production ramps. PCAR is more concentrated in the heavy-duty truck cycle, yet it softens cyclical swings through a highly profitable parts business and a captive financial services arm.
On momentum, PCAR has shown relatively steadier earnings and recently attracted analyst upgrades tied to the truck cycle, while OSK has faced guidance cuts driven by operational bottlenecks. On stability, PCAR's fortress balance sheet and credit ratings stand out, whereas OSK carries more near-term margin volatility. Risk factors also differ: OSK is sensitive to construction cycles, tariffs, and government contracting, while PCAR depends on freight rates, diesel prices, and fleet replacement timing. Both stocks maintain meaningful backlogs and shareholder-friendly capital return policies, making the trade-off one of diversification versus cyclical steadiness.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward PCAR in the current environment. The stock's steadier earnings trajectory, record parts performance, recent analyst upgrades, and improving North American truck demand present a more consistent trend profile than OSK's ongoing production and margin challenges. That said, OSK's improving free cash flow, strong Access order book, and NGDV ramp could favor it if execution improves. The AI verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting that relative momentum and stability currently appear more favorable for PACCAR, while Oshkosh remains a higher-uncertainty, catalyst-dependent story.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is OSK is a Buy and PCAR is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for OSK turns positive, indicating new upward trend
OSK saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 57 of the 82 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OSK just turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where OSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
OSK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OSK advanced for three days, in 212 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for OSK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OSK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
OSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for OSK entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.985) is normal, around the industry mean (2.407). P/E Ratio (16.556) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.377). OSK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.298) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (1.169).
PCAR in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 26, 2026
PCAR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 38 cases where PCAR's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PCAR advanced for three days, in 199 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PCAR as a result. In 52 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PCAR turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PCAR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator for PCAR entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.661) is normal, around the industry mean (2.407). P/E Ratio (21.584) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.377). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.828) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.241) is also within normal values, averaging (1.169).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PCAR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
OSK | PCAR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 52 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PCAR's Valuation (59) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as OSK (86). This means that PCAR’s stock grew similarly to OSK’s over the last 12 months.
PCAR's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as OSK (52). This means that PCAR’s stock grew similarly to OSK’s over the last 12 months.
PCAR's SMR Rating (62) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as OSK (63). This means that PCAR’s stock grew similarly to OSK’s over the last 12 months.
OSK's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as PCAR (62). This means that OSK’s stock grew similarly to PCAR’s over the last 12 months.
OSK's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as PCAR (28). This means that OSK’s stock grew similarly to PCAR’s over the last 12 months.
| OSK | PCAR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 14 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
OSK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PCAR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- OSK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PCAR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
OSK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PCAR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- OSK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PCAR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
OSK (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а +9.14% price change this week, while PCAR (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -1.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -2.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.48%.
Reported Earning Dates
OSK is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
PCAR is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-2.21% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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OSK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OSK has been loosely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if OSK jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.
PCAR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PCAR has been loosely correlated with TWI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PCAR jumps, then TWI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PCAR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 100% | +0.81% | ||
| TWI - PCAR | 56% Loosely correlated | +6.88% | ||
| OSK - PCAR | 55% Loosely correlated | +3.99% | ||
| CNH - PCAR | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.43% | ||
| TEX - PCAR | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.72% | ||
| ACA - PCAR | 44% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
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