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DHI vs MTH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? D.R. Horton (DHI) vs. Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale versus specialization: D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, while Meritage Homes is a focused, energy-efficient builder concentrated in the Sun Belt and Southeast.
- Relative resilience: DHI posted modest revenue and order declines in its most recent quarter, whereas MTH reported a sharper double-digit revenue contraction and withdrew forward guidance.
- Profitability gap: DHI has maintained double-digit pre-tax margins, while MTH's operating margin compressed to the low single-digit-to-mid range amid heavier incentive use.
- Balance-sheet strength: Both companies hold ample liquidity, but DHI's national footprint, diversified revenue segments, and 13 consecutive years of dividend growth offer greater stability.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: DHI is the favored ticker of the two, reflecting more consistent trend strength and broader diversification relative to MTH.
- For deeper context, explore DHI Major News and DHI Today's Price Move, as well as MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move.
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Introduction
D.R. Horton (DHI) and Meritage Homes (MTH) are two prominent names in U.S. residential construction, yet they occupy very different positions in the market. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders tracking housing demand, mortgage-rate sensitivity, and how builders with different scale and geographic footprints navigate a challenging affordability environment. While both operate in the same cyclical industry, their relative performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles diverge meaningfully. Understanding those contrasts can help readers assess market positioning without speculation, focusing instead on verifiable results and observable momentum.
DHI Overview and Recent Performance
D.R. Horton, known as "America's Builder," is the largest homebuilder in the United States, operating across roughly 126 markets in 36 states and generating tens of billions in annual homebuilding revenue. Its scale is supported by complementary segments including rental operations, majority-owned lot developer Forestar, and a financial services arm offering mortgage and title services.
In recent market activity, DHI has demonstrated relative resilience against a backdrop of elevated mortgage rates and soft consumer sentiment. Its most recent quarterly results showed a modest decline in homebuilding revenue and homes closed, while pre-tax profit margins remained in the double digits. Net sales orders and cancellation rates softened, and the company raised its quarterly dividend for the thirteenth consecutive year, reinforcing its cash-flow discipline. Analysts have issued a mix of Hold and Buy ratings, with price targets reflecting caution around affordability pressures. A 52-week trading range that has pulled back from prior highs captures the near-term pressure on sentiment, even as the company's national diversification and affordable product mix continue to support demand.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes is the fifth-largest public homebuilder in the U.S., specializing in energy-efficient, entry-level and first move-up homes across 12 states, largely in the Sun Belt and Southeast. Its concentrated footprint gives it meaningful share in fast-growing regions but also leaves it more exposed to localized demand swings and incentive competition.
Recent performance for MTH has been more challenged. In its latest quarter, revenue fell by a double-digit percentage year over year and missed analyst estimates, while adjusted earnings also came in below consensus. Operating margin compressed, and management withdrew its forward guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty, volatile interest rates, and softer buyer psychology. The company has pulled back land investment and prioritized balance-sheet preservation, ending the quarter with solid cash and no borrowings under its revolving credit facility. Backlog has trended lower, and analysts have reduced price targets in response, reflecting a more cautious outlook for near-term demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two builders is scale. DHI operates a national, multi-segment platform with an asset-light land strategy and a first-time-buyer focus, which helps smooth regional volatility. MTH runs a more concentrated operation in the Sun Belt, prioritizing energy-efficient entry-level homes and spec inventory for faster delivery, but with narrower geographic diversification.
On growth and momentum, DHI's results show more stability, with orders and closings holding up better relative to MTH's steeper revenue decline and withdrawn guidance. Risk factors also differ: MTH faces sharper margin pressure from higher incentives and a shrinking backlog, while DHI contends with its own cancellation-rate uptick and moderating pre-tax income. Sector exposure is shared, but DHI's ancillary rental, lot-development, and financial-services income provides additional earnings diversification that MTH lacks. Sentiment, as reflected in analyst actions and stock movement, has favored the larger, more diversified operator in recent weeks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, diversification, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI framework would likely favor DHI over MTH in the current environment. DHI's national scale, double-digit margins, multi-segment revenue base, and uninterrupted dividend growth suggest a more durable trajectory, whereas MTH's sharper revenue contraction, compressed margins, and withdrawn guidance introduce greater near-term uncertainty. That said, both stocks remain sensitive to mortgage rates and housing demand, so the edge is best understood as probabilistic rather than absolute. The analysis points to DHI as the more consistent candidate under present market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DHI is a Buy and MTH is a Buy.
DHI in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
The 10-day moving average for DHI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DHI as a result. In 57 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DHI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where DHI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
DHI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +8.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DHI advanced for three days, in 192 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DHI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
DHI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DHI entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DHI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.788) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.475) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.171) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.205) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
MTH in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 59 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 71%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.877) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.089) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
DHI | MTH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 63 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DHI (78). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Profit vs Risk Rating (46) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (63). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's SMR Rating (62) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (46). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (27). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
| DHI | MTH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 64% | 18 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DHI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MTH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DHI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DHI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DHI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DHI (@Homebuilding) experienced а +4.30% price change this week, while MTH (@Homebuilding) price change was +5.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +1.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.16%.
Reported Earning Dates
DHI is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+1.67% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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DHI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DHI has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DHI jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.