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DK vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- VLO outperforms DK year-to-date (YTD, year-to-date) with a 47% gain compared to 37%, reflecting stronger momentum in recent market activity.
- DK has delivered a remarkable 222% one-year return, far exceeding VLO's 115%, driven by operational turnarounds.
- Valero's larger market capitalization of $71 billion provides greater scale and stability versus Delek's $2.4 billion.
- Both face refining margin pressures, but VLO benefits from diversification into renewable diesel.
- Upcoming Q1 earnings could shift sentiment, with analysts projecting robust growth for VLO.
- Tickeron's AI leans toward VLO for its relative stability and catalysts.
Introduction
Delek US Holdings (DK) and Valero Energy (VLO) are key players in the oil refining and marketing sector, operating amid fluctuating crude prices and refining margins. This comparison analyzes their business models, recent stock performance, and market positioning, offering insights for energy sector investors and traders navigating volatility. With both companies reporting Q1 earnings imminently, understanding relative strengths in momentum, fundamentals, and risk profiles is crucial for assessing opportunities in downstream energy stocks.
DK Overview and Recent Performance
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) is an integrated downstream energy company focused on petroleum refining and logistics. It operates refineries in Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana, processing crude into gasoline, diesel, and other products, while its logistics arm handles transportation and storage. In recent market activity, DK shares have shown volatility, with a year-to-date gain of 37% but a pullback of about 11% over the past month. The stock's 222% one-year surge reflects a Q4 2025 profitability turnaround, where adjusted EPS beat estimates at $0.44, aided by optimization efforts. Sentiment has been tempered recently by refinery downtime, rising costs, and revenue pressures ahead of Q1 earnings, contributing to heightened risk perception.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a leading independent refiner, producing fuels and petrochemicals across U.S., Canada, and international markets. It operates through refining, renewable diesel, and ethanol segments, with a focus on branded retail distribution. Recent performance has been robust, with shares up 47% year-to-date and trading near the upper end of a $112–$258 52-week range. Over the past year, VLO gained 115%, supported by strong refining throughput and renewable expansions. In recent weeks, mixed sessions amid broader market moves have occurred, but positive EPS revisions—up 40% in the last 30 days—signal optimism for Q1 results, potentially boosting sentiment further.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both DK and VLO center on refining crude into fuels, but VLO's scale—15x larger market cap—and renewable diesel exposure offer diversification absent in DK's pure-play refining and logistics model. Growth drivers favor VLO, with positive EPS momentum and lower debt-to-equity (44% vs. 649%), reducing leverage risks. Recent momentum shows VLO steadier YTD, while DK excels in one-year gains but faces higher volatility from operational hiccups. Risk factors include sector-wide margin squeezes for both, though DK's negative profit margin (-0.21%) contrasts VLO's 2%. Market sentiment tilts toward VLO pre-earnings, balancing DK's upside potential in recoveries.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors VLO over DK, citing superior trend consistency, profitability, lower financial leverage, and stronger Q1 catalysts amid refining sector dynamics. While DK offers higher short-term rebound potential, VLO's scale and positioning suggest greater probability of sustained outperformance in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DK is a Hold and VLO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DK (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -4.14% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -1.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -0.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
DK is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-0.12% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| DK | VLO | DK / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 2.63B | 72.4B | 4% |
| EBITDA | 730M | 9.51B | 8% |
| Gain YTD | 46.347 | 51.383 | 90% |
| P/E Ratio | 93.07 | 17.81 | 523% |
| Revenue | 10.7B | 125B | 9% |
| Total Cash | 624M | 5.73B | 11% |
| Total Debt | 3.25B | 11.5B | 28% |
DK | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 92 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 55 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (82) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (92). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (38). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (50) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DK (99). This means that VLO’s stock grew somewhat faster than DK’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (45). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for VLO (97). This means that DK’s stock grew significantly faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| DK | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 80% | 21 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 82% | 6 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 70% |
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DK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DK has been closely correlated with PARR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DK jumps, then PARR could also see price increases.