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DK vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DK and VLO are both downstream refiners that have benefited from elevated refining margins, or "crack spreads" (the price difference between crude oil and refined products), tied to recent global supply disruptions.
- VLO is the larger, more diversified operator, with a broad refining network plus renewable diesel and ethanol segments and a markedly stronger balance sheet.
- DK is smaller and more leveraged, but it has posted sharp operational improvement, including rising margin capture and significant analyst earnings estimate upgrades.
- Both stocks have delivered strong multi-month gains, though their risk profiles differ meaningfully given divergent scale, diversification, and financial leverage.
- The comparison is especially relevant for investors weighing concentrated upside potential against balance-sheet resilience and business diversification.
Introduction
Delek US Holdings and Valero Energy operate in the same cyclical industry yet represent very different points on the downstream energy spectrum. Both convert crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and both have ridden a powerful wave of elevated refining margins in recent quarters. However, VLO is a diversified, large-cap refiner with a fortress-like balance sheet, while DK is a smaller, higher-leverage operator pursuing margin-capture improvements and cost optimization. This stock comparison will interest investors seeking to understand how scale, diversification, financial strength, and recent momentum shape relative performance and market positioning across two refiners facing the same macro backdrop.
DK Overview and Recent Performance
Delek US Holdings, Inc. is a Brentwood, Tennessee-based refining and logistics company operating four refineries with a notably high diesel and jet fuel yield relative to its peers. It also owns a majority interest in Delek Logistics Partners, LP, a master limited partnership (a publicly traded structure that passes most income to unitholders) that handles gathering, pipelines, and other midstream assets.
In recent quarters, DK has benefited from sharply higher refining margins and stronger throughput, particularly after completing a turnaround at its Big Spring refinery. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit per share) that far exceeded expectations, driven by a substantial rise in benchmark crack spreads. Management has also highlighted its Enterprise Optimization Plan, which targets at least $220 million of annual free cash flow improvement, and its improving "margin capture" rate, which measures how much available market economics the company retains. These operational gains have supported notable analyst earnings estimate revisions. At the same time, DK carries comparatively high leverage, which can amplify both gains and losses through the refining cycle.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy Corporation is one of the largest independent refiners in the United States, operating roughly 14 refineries concentrated on the Gulf Coast and Mid-Continent with approximately 3 million barrels per day of throughput capacity. Beyond refining, VLO maintains meaningful positions in renewable diesel through its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture and in ethanol through 12 production plants, creating three distinct earnings engines.
Recent market activity has been favorable for Valero, with strong gasoline and distillate economics lifting refining margins, while its renewable diesel and ethanol segments both swung to sharply higher profits. The company has returned substantial cash to shareholders and raised its quarterly dividend. Crucially, VLO maintains a low net debt-to-capitalization ratio, ample cash, and significant liquidity, giving it flexibility to invest and return capital even amid commodity-driven volatility. Its diversified portfolio and Gulf Coast feedstock advantages underpin a comparatively resilient market positioning relative to smaller peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two refiners is scale and diversification. VLO operates a much larger refining footprint and pairs it with renewable diesel and ethanol businesses, which can partially offset weakness in any single fuel market. DK is more focused on conventional refining and midstream logistics, with a configuration that favors diesel and jet fuel and gives it comparatively higher sensitivity to distillate economics.
Balance-sheet strength is another key differentiator. Valero's low leverage and large cash position provide a cushion against downturns and support sustained shareholder returns. Delek's higher debt load means its equity is more sensitive to shifts in profitability, though it also leaves more room for outsized upside when refining margins remain robust. On valuation and momentum, both names have advanced significantly in recent months; DK has traded at a somewhat lower forward price-to-earnings multiple, while VLO commands a premium reflecting its scale, diversification, and financial quality. Sector exposure remains the shared risk: both are highly cyclical and sensitive to crack spreads, fuel demand, and regulatory developments affecting refined product exports.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VLO on a stability and positioning basis, given its diversified earnings streams, stronger balance sheet, and more consistent trend profile. However, DK presents a more aggressive, momentum-oriented profile, supported by improving margin capture and rising earnings estimates that could appeal in a sustained favorable margin environment. The probable AI preference therefore depends on the objective: a trend and stability model may lean toward Valero's resilience, while a momentum-focused model could tilt toward Delek's higher-beta upside. Neither outcome is definitive, and relative positioning may shift as refining margins and market sentiment evolve.
Disclaimer
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To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DK is a Buy and VLO is a Hold.
DK | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 94 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DK's Valuation (71) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (73). This means that DK’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (7). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's SMR Rating (10) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (34). This means that DK’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (36). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for VLO (99). This means that DK’s stock grew significantly faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| DK | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 5 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DK’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DK’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DK’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DK (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +11.10% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +6.69% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +2.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +32.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
DK is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+2.03% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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DK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DK has been closely correlated with PARR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DK jumps, then PARR could also see price increases.
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.