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DK vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
1. Key Takeaways
- DK is a smaller, regionally focused downstream energy company, while VLO is a large multinational refiner with a diversified renewable fuels platform.
- Both stocks have benefited from a sharp expansion in refining margins (crack spreads) over recent quarters, but VLO has delivered much stronger share-price momentum in 2026.
- DK carries a substantially higher leverage profile, with a debt-to-capital ratio above 85%, versus roughly 18% net of cash for VLO.
- VLO offers a larger dividend and a more diversified earnings base across refining, renewable diesel, and ethanol.
- Relative positioning favors the larger, more stable operator, though DK retains a leaner cost structure and turnaround-driven upside.
2. Introduction
Investors evaluating the energy sector frequently weigh the trade-off between scale and specialization. This stock comparison examines Delek US Holdings (DK), a mid-cap downstream operator concentrated in select U.S. refining regions, against Valero Energy (VLO), one of the largest independent refiners in the world. Both companies are leveraged to the same fundamental driver — refining margins — yet they differ sharply in size, diversification, balance-sheet strength, and recent market positioning. For traders seeking momentum and for longer-horizon investors assessing stability and capital returns, understanding how these two names compare can help clarify where risk and reward currently sit within the refining complex.
3. DK Overview and Recent Performance
Delek US Holdings (DK) is an integrated downstream energy company that operates a refining system spanning several facilities, including Tyler, El Dorado, Big Spring, and Krotz Springs, alongside a majority stake in the midstream master limited partnership Delek Logistics Partners (DKL). Its footprint is concentrated in the southern and southwestern United States, which makes its results sensitive to regional supply-and-demand conditions.
Recent market activity has been notably constructive for DK. The company swung from prior-period adjusted losses to a substantial adjusted profit in its second quarter, reporting adjusted earnings of $5.48 per share, well ahead of consensus expectations. The improvement was driven by a sharp rise in benchmark crack spreads (the difference between refined product prices and crude oil input costs), which management reported increased by a triple-digit percentage year over year. Production margin per throughput barrel also climbed meaningfully, supported by strong utilization at the Big Spring refinery following a first-quarter turnaround. The logistics segment, meanwhile, posted record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
Offsetting these strengths, DK maintains a notably high debt-to-capital ratio, which has exceeded 85% in recent quarters. While management has refinanced and extended maturities to improve liquidity, this leverage remains a central risk factor that can amplify volatility in a cyclical margin environment.
4. VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy (VLO) is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products, operating 14 refineries across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom with combined throughput capacity of roughly 3.0 million barrels per day. Beyond refining, it holds a stake in the Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, which produces renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and operates 12 ethanol plants — giving it a more diversified earnings base than many pure-play refiners.
VLO has experienced exceptional relative performance in recent market activity. The stock has posted triple-digit gains in 2026, reaching record levels, as tighter global refining capacity and geopolitical disruptions to fuel supply lifted product margins. Adjusted earnings reached $12.54 per share in the second quarter, with refining, renewable diesel, and ethanol segments all contributing stronger profits than the prior-year period. The company has also raised its quarterly dividend and continued returning a large share of operating cash flow to shareholders.
From a stability standpoint, VLO maintains a conservative balance sheet, ending recent quarters with a debt-to-capitalization ratio net of cash of approximately 18%. This financial flexibility is a key differentiator in a capital-intensive, cyclical industry.
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6. Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two names is scale and diversification. VLO operates a global refining network with meaningful exposure to renewable diesel and ethanol, while DK is a regional operator whose earnings are more concentrated in a handful of refineries and its logistics segment. This concentration can magnify DK's upside when regional margins widen, but it also increases sensitivity to single-asset disruptions and local supply dynamics.
Balance-sheet strength is another defining difference. VLO's net debt-to-capitalization of about 18% contrasts sharply with DK's leverage above 85%, giving the larger company greater capacity to sustain dividends and capital spending through margin downturns. On growth drivers, VLO benefits from structurally tighter global refining capacity and its lower-carbon fuel platform, while DK leans on its enterprise optimization program and cost-reduction initiatives to lift free cash flow.
In terms of recent momentum and market sentiment, VLO has attracted considerably stronger investor attention, with rising analyst price targets and elevated retail engagement. DK, by contrast, has gained from policy-related and regional margin tailwinds but remains a higher-beta, less-liquid expression of the same theme. Both carry cyclical risk from a potential cooling of refining margins, though their sensitivity profiles differ materially.
7. Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, diversified catalysts, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI framework would likely express a preference for VLO in the current environment. The stock's sustained upward trend, broader earnings base, conservative leverage, and strong capital-return profile present a more consistent risk-adjusted profile than DK's higher-leverage, regionally concentrated model. That said, DK's leaner cost structure and recent margin-driven earnings inflection give it meaningful upside potential, and AI-driven signals could favor it during periods when regional crack spreads are expanding most rapidly. The probabilistic conclusion leans toward VLO for stability, while acknowledging DK as a higher-beta alternative for traders comfortable with elevated cyclical risk.
8. Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DK is a Buy and VLO is a Hold.
DK in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
DK moved above its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 36 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +4.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DK advanced for three days, in 248 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
DK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 202 of 252 cases where DK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DK moved out of overbought territory on September 18, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 77%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 53 of 65 cases where DK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DK as a result. In 59 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DK turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 59 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (25.681) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (21.430) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.140) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.397) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
VLO's Stochastic Oscillator stoops into oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for VLO moved into oversold territory on October 22, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +0.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 287 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 260 of 338 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VLO moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 35 of the 51 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VLO as a result. In 52 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VLO turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
VLO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.030) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (18.206) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
DK | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (88) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (94). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (7). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's SMR Rating (10) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (34). This means that DK’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DK (35). This means that VLO’s stock grew somewhat faster than DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for VLO (95). This means that DK’s stock grew significantly faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| DK | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 23 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DK’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DK’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DK (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -0.95% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -5.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -3.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was +38.17%.
Reported Earning Dates
DK is expected to report earnings on Nov 06, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-3.23% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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DK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DK has been closely correlated with PARR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DK jumps, then PARR could also see price increases.
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | -2.40% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 87% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 84% Closely correlated | -1.88% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 80% Closely correlated | -2.59% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 79% Closely correlated | -2.81% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | -5.34% | ||
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