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DOW vs SCL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dow Inc. (DOW) vs. Stepan Company (SCL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DOW is a diversified materials science giant with roughly $40 billion in 2025 sales, while SCL is a far smaller specialty and intermediate chemicals producer.
- DOW has sharply outperformed SCL over the past year, driven largely by polyethylene supply disruptions tied to Middle East conflict.
- DOW posted a reported loss in its most recent quarter amid weak pricing, whereas SCL's latest quarterly net income more than doubled year over year.
- Both companies are running cost-cutting programs: DOW's "Transform to Outperform" and SCL's "Project Catalyst."
- The two names carry very different risk profiles, with DOW exposed to commodity pricing cycles and SCL positioned as a specialty-focused, dividend-growth compounder.
Introduction
Dow Inc. (DOW) and Stepan Company (SCL) both operate in the chemicals industry, yet they represent opposite ends of that market's spectrum. DOW is a global, large-cap materials science leader whose earnings swing with commodity chemical prices, while SCL is a smaller specialty chemical manufacturer with a long track record of dividend growth. Comparing them helps investors weigh a high-beta cyclical recovery story against a steadier, more diversified specialty franchise. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for traders assessing relative performance and momentum, as well as longer-term investors evaluating market positioning across size, sector exposure, and dividend characteristics.
DOW Overview and Recent Performance
Dow Inc. is one of the world's largest materials science companies, serving packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer end markets from manufacturing sites across 29 countries and roughly 34,600 employees. Its portfolio spans polyethylene and specialty plastics, industrial intermediates, and performance materials and coatings, which makes its results sensitive to global industrial demand and commodity chemical pricing.
Recent market activity has been shaped by a mixed earnings picture. In its most recent quarter, DOW reported a net loss on a reported basis, pressured by lower prices and a modest decline in volumes, though it beat consensus revenue expectations. Crucially, the disruption of a meaningful share of global polyethylene supply stemming from conflict in the Middle East has tightened that market and supported polyethylene pricing, a key catalyst behind the stock's strong relative performance in recent weeks. Analysts remain divided, with several firms trimming price targets even as others upgraded the name on the improved polyethylene outlook. The company's "Transform to Outperform" initiative continues to target structural cost savings.
SCL Overview and Recent Performance
Stepan Company (SCL) produces specialty and intermediate chemicals used in applications ranging from surfactants and polymers to specialty products, with operations across North America, Europe, and Asia. It is notably smaller than DOW and is widely recognized for its unusually long streak of consecutive annual dividend increases.
SCL's recent results have been strong on an operational basis. In its latest quarter, net sales rose 15% year over year and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) climbed 45%, with reported net income roughly doubling. Volume growth, margin recovery, and early savings from its "Project Catalyst" restructuring program drove the improvement. Management cautioned, however, that part of the strength reflected customer pre-buying tied to geopolitical and raw-material uncertainty. The company has also announced a reduction of roughly 100 salaried roles as part of its cost transformation, and it continues to target meaningful pre-tax savings while planning for some second-half moderation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between these two stocks is scale and cyclicality. DOW is a commodity-levered, large-cap franchise whose earnings and share price are heavily influenced by global polyethylene and olefin pricing. SCL, by comparison, is a specialty-focused manufacturer with more diversified end markets and a defensive dividend-growth profile, though its smaller size leaves it more exposed to single-segment or regional softness.
On momentum, DOW has been the clear leader over the trailing year, aided by the polyethylene supply shock, while SCL's advance has been more measured. On fundamentals, SCL delivered profit growth in its latest quarter, while DOW remained in a reported loss despite a strong share-price recovery. Risk factors differ as well: DOW's beta (a measure of volatility relative to the market) is notably low, but its earnings are deeply tied to the chemical cycle; SCL's restructuring and geographic concentration in certain polymer markets introduce operational risk. Market sentiment has turned cautiously optimistic on DOW as pricing firmed, while SCL's outlook hinges on executing Project Catalyst and sustaining volume gains.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor DOW in the current environment, primarily on trend consistency and relative momentum. The stock's sharp uptrend, supported by a tangible pricing catalyst in polyethylene and improving analyst sentiment, gives it a stronger near-term technical and fundamental tailwind. SCL's steadier, dividend-oriented profile offers stability and profit growth, but its more gradual price action and second-half caution make it comparatively less compelling on a momentum basis. This assessment is probabilistic and grounded in current trends, catalysts, and market positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and it should be evaluated alongside individual objectives and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DOW is a Hold and SCL is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for DOW turns positive, indicating new upward trend
DOW saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 59 of the 90 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DOW just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where DOW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
DOW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for DOW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +2.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DOW advanced for three days, in 174 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DOW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
DOW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DOW entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DOW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.384) is normal, around the industry mean (1.145). P/E Ratio (-16.601) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.185). DOW's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (38.891) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.769). Dividend Yield (0.046) settles around the average of (0.139) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.524) is also within normal values, averaging (0.578).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DOW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for SCL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
SCL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 53 of the 87 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SCL just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where SCL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
SCL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SCL advanced for three days, in 166 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for SCL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SCL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
SCL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SCL entered a downward trend on September 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.198) is normal, around the industry mean (2.359). SCL's P/E Ratio (-532.500) is considerably lower than the industry average of (-17.286). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.580) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.581) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SCL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SCL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
DOW | SCL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 5 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 93 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 1 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SCL's Valuation (5) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is significantly better than the same rating for DOW (94). This means that SCL’s stock grew significantly faster than DOW’s over the last 12 months.
SCL's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (100). This means that SCL’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
SCL's SMR Rating (90) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (93). This means that SCL’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
SCL's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (45). This means that SCL’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
DOW's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SCL (100). This means that DOW’s stock grew somewhat faster than SCL’s over the last 12 months.
| DOW | SCL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 66% | 11 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DOW’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SCL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DOW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SCL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DOW’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SCL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DOW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SCL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DOW (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) experienced а +4.08% price change this week, while SCL (@Chemicals: Specialty) price change was +2.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Major Diversified industry was -2.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was -26.61%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was +0.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
DOW is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
SCL is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Major Diversified (-2.10% weekly)The major diversified chemicals industry includes companies that produce a wide range of chemicals and industrial gases. The products are often used as raw materials in the manufacturing of various types of goods, including plastics, paints, carpets, and fixtures to name a few. Major companies making diversified chemicals include DuPont de Nemours Inc., Celanese Corporation, Celanese Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
@Chemicals: Specialty (+0.09% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
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SCL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SCL has been closely correlated with OLN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SCL jumps, then OLN could also see price increases.