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FIZZ vs KDP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FIZZ (National Beverage Corp.) and KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.) operate in the consumer staples beverage sector but differ significantly in scale, with KDP substantially larger following its recent acquisition.
- Recent market activity shows FIZZ delivering a special cash dividend alongside fiscal 2026 results, while KDP reported solid Q1 2026 results and reaffirmed full-year guidance ahead of its Q2 earnings release.
- Year-to-date performance through late July 2026 favored KDP with stronger gains compared to FIZZ, though both stocks have faced longer-term volatility relative to broader market indices.
- KDP benefits from diversified exposure across coffee, soft drinks, and refreshment beverages, whereas FIZZ maintains a more concentrated focus on sparkling water and carbonated soft drinks.
- Valuation metrics and growth drivers present trade-offs: FIZZ trades at lower multiples amid muted expansion prospects, while KDP offers visibility from integration activities and steady demand in core categories.
- Market sentiment reflects sector resilience in beverages, with both companies navigating input costs and consumer preferences through recent quarters.
Introduction
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) and Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) represent two distinct players in the U.S. beverage industry, offering investors a contrast between a specialized sparkling water and soda producer and a diversified refreshment and coffee company. This comparison examines their business models, recent performance trends, and market positioning to assist traders and investors evaluating relative opportunities within consumer staples. Portfolio managers focused on sector allocation, income-oriented investors monitoring dividend policies, and those assessing growth catalysts in packaged beverages may find the analysis particularly relevant amid evolving consumer tastes and economic conditions.
FIZZ Overview and Recent Performance
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) primarily manufactures and distributes sparkling waters, carbonated soft drinks, and other beverages under brands including LaCroix and Shasta. The company operates with a leaner structure compared to larger industry peers. In recent market activity, FIZZ announced a special cash dividend alongside its fiscal 2026 results in early July 2026, providing a direct return to shareholders. Stock behavior through late July reflected modest year-to-date gains amid broader sector stability, though the shares have experienced notable longer-term pressure. Sentiment has been influenced by limited organic growth visibility and valuation compression relative to historical levels, with analysts noting the company’s focus on maintaining margins in a competitive environment.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) produces a wide portfolio of beverages, including coffee through its Keurig system, soft drinks, and other refreshment products. The company completed the acquisition of a majority stake in JDE Peet’s in April 2026, expanding its global coffee presence. Recent performance includes better-than-expected Q1 2026 results with revenue growth and reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance for net sales and adjusted earnings per share. As of late July 2026, the stock traded near $31 with year-to-date appreciation ahead of the broader market, supported by momentum in U.S. refreshment beverages. Upcoming Q2 earnings scheduled for early August 2026 represent a near-term catalyst, with investor attention centered on integration progress and demand trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In terms of business model, KDP offers greater diversification across coffee, carbonated soft drinks, and other categories, providing broader exposure to consumer spending patterns, while FIZZ remains more specialized in sparkling and flavored beverages. Growth drivers contrast sharply: KDP benefits from acquisition-related synergies and steady category momentum, whereas FIZZ relies primarily on organic brand performance with fewer near-term expansion levers. Recent momentum has tilted toward KDP on the basis of earnings delivery and guidance stability. Risk factors include integration execution for KDP and volume sensitivity for FIZZ in a price-conscious environment. Sector exposure places both within consumer staples, though KDP’s larger scale may afford greater resilience to input cost fluctuations. Market sentiment appears measured for both, with KDP attracting attention around earnings and FIZZ around capital return initiatives.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings delivery, and relative positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a higher probability of favorable near-term characteristics to KDP. The combination of reaffirmed guidance, acquisition integration potential, and stronger year-to-date performance provides a more constructive backdrop compared to FIZZ’s more limited catalysts. This assessment remains probabilistic and contingent on evolving data rather than a definitive ranking.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FIZZ is a Buy and KDP is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FIZZ’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKDP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FIZZ’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FIZZ’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KDP’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FIZZ’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FIZZ (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) experienced а -1.97% price change this week, while KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was +2.47% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +7.93%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
FIZZ is expected to report earnings on Sep 03, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+7.93% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| FIZZ | KDP | FIZZ / KDP | |
| Capitalization | 2.93B | 42.4B | 7% |
| EBITDA | 253M | 4.05B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 8.689 | 13.817 | 63% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.99 | 31.46 | 51% |
| Revenue | 1.18B | 16.9B | 7% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 62.7M | 25.7B | 0% |
FIZZ | KDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 69 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 24 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 84 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (24) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FIZZ (73). This means that KDP’s stock grew somewhat faster than FIZZ’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as FIZZ (100). This means that KDP’s stock grew similarly to FIZZ’s over the last 12 months.
FIZZ's SMR Rating (30) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (80). This means that FIZZ’s stock grew somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as FIZZ (70). This means that KDP’s stock grew similarly to FIZZ’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FIZZ (84). This means that KDP’s stock grew somewhat faster than FIZZ’s over the last 12 months.
| FIZZ | KDP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 36% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| GARP | 85.16 | 1.17 | +1.39% |
| iShares MSCI USA Quality GARP ETF | |||
| MFDX | 42.85 | 0.12 | +0.29% |
| PIMCO RAFI Dyn Multi-Factor Intl Eq ETF | |||
| MCN | 5.67 | N/A | N/A |
| Madison Covered Call & Equity Strategy Fund | |||
| PBNV | 31.55 | N/A | N/A |
| PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - Nov | |||
| CRMU | 2.15 | -0.01 | -0.46% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long CRML Daily ETF | |||
KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 43% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | +5.28% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 43% Loosely correlated | +1.38% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 41% Loosely correlated | +1.23% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 32% Poorly correlated | +1.52% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 30% Poorly correlated | +0.37% | ||
| COKE - KDP | 29% Poorly correlated | +0.74% | ||
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