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GRBK vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Green Brick Partners (GRBK) is a Texas-centric homebuilder with industry-leading gross margins, while Toll Brothers (TOL) is a national luxury homebuilder serving an affluent buyer base.
- Relative performance has diverged: TOL has delivered a roughly 14% one-year return with a lower beta (a measure of volatility), while GRBK has pulled back modestly over the same stretch.
- Both builders face affordability pressure and elevated sales incentives, but TOL's growing net orders and resilient backlog signal steadier demand.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, order growth, and relative positioning, the AI currently favors TOL over GRBK.
- For more detail, explore GRBK Major News and GRBK Today's Price Move, as well as TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- Curious how automated systems trade names like these? Explore Trending AI Robots to see the strategies currently favored by Tickeron's platform.
Introduction
Homebuilders occupy a unique corner of the market: they are deeply cyclical, highly sensitive to mortgage rates, yet positioned against a persistent structural shortage of housing supply. Comparing GRBK and TOL offers a useful lens on two very different business models within the same sector. Green Brick Partners is a regional, land-focused builder concentrated in high-growth Sun Belt markets, while Toll Brothers is a scaled, national operator aimed at luxury and move-up buyers. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders weighing regional concentration against national diversification, and margin quality against demand stability in today's rate-sensitive housing environment.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
GRBK, or Green Brick Partners, is a diversified homebuilding and land development company operating primarily in Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Its strategy centers on owning and self-developing land in desirable infill and infill-adjacent submarkets, which historically supports above-average gross margins. In recent weeks, the company reported third-quarter results showing net new home orders up 3% year over year and a homebuilding gross margin of 28.0%, still among the strongest of its public peers. However, earnings have been contracting, with net income down versus the prior-year quarter, and management has noted elevated incentives and a "deteriorating" market backdrop. The stock has pulled back over the past year, and its higher beta reflects greater sensitivity to market swings. A strong balance sheet, low leverage, and active share repurchases remain supportive factors.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL, or Toll Brothers, is a national luxury homebuilder with a footprint spanning dozens of markets and an average delivered home price near or above $1 million. Recent quarters have shown a mixed but constructive picture: net signed contracts have grown year over year, the backlog has remained substantial at more than $6 billion, and management raised full-year delivery and margin guidance. Profitability has nonetheless been pressured by lower gross margins, higher selling expenses, and inventory impairments. The company continues to return capital through a dividend and large share repurchases, and its lower beta indicates comparatively steadier price behavior. Over the past year, TOL has outperformed GRBK, reflecting the relative resilience of its affluent customer base.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page is a curated showcase of the platform's most relevant automated trading strategies. While Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, only a select group earns a place in this featured section. Each bot carries its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and set of tickers, so the section helps users quickly identify the approaches best suited to current market conditions. The featured robots display measurable statistics, giving visitors a factual basis for evaluating different automated approaches to names such as GRBK and TOL. If you are interested in how AI-driven systems are positioned today, the Trending AI Robots page is a natural next step.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is one of scale and focus. GRBK is a mid-cap, regionally concentrated builder whose self-developed land strategy produces superior gross margins but leaves earnings more exposed to conditions in Texas and the Southeast. TOL is a large-cap national operator with broader geographic diversification, a luxury-leaning product mix, and a dividend that GRBK does not offer. On valuation, GRBK trades at a notably lower price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, while TOL commands a premium that partly reflects its stability and scale. In terms of momentum, TOL has shown stronger recent relative performance, whereas GRBK has experienced a pullback. Risk factors also differ: GRBK carries higher price volatility, while TOL faces margin compression and impairment charges tied to the luxury segment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing the observable factors, Tickeron's AI framework would currently lean toward TOL. The preference is grounded less in any single metric than in a combination of steadier price behavior, resilient order growth, a sizable backlog, and consistent shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. GRBK retains a structurally strong balance sheet and best-in-class margins, but its contracting earnings and higher volatility reduce its relative trend consistency in the current environment. As with any probabilistic signal, the outcome reflects positioning rather than certainty, and the balance could shift with changes in mortgage rates, affordability, or regional housing demand.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a Hold and TOL is a Buy.
GRBK in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
GRBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 32 of the 40 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 65 cases where GRBK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GRBK as a result. In 58 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
GRBK moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRBK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 17 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.446) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (9.733) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
TOL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 59 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 66 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.648) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.205) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
GRBK | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 47 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (70). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (35). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (58). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (50). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (23). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 10 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 6 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +3.49% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | -4.01% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -4.39% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -3.89% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | -2.65% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -2.96% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -3.80% | ||
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