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GRBK vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both GRBK and TOL operate in the homebuilding sector, with GRBK emphasizing value-oriented homes in select Sun Belt markets and TOL focusing on luxury properties nationwide.
- In recent market activity, GRBK reported second-quarter 2026 results with revenue and EPS beating analyst estimates amid margin leadership, while TOL prepares for fiscal third-quarter earnings expected on August 18, 2026.
- GRBK stock has traded near $70.46 recently, reflecting modest fluctuations, whereas TOL closed around $148.27 with year-to-date returns near 10%.
- Key contrasts include GRBK’s industry-leading gross margins versus TOL’s scale and brand positioning in the luxury segment.
- Market sentiment for both remains tied to housing demand, mortgage rates, and economic conditions, with limited sector-specific catalysts noted in the past several weeks.
- Relative performance shows TOL with stronger longer-term returns historically, while GRBK demonstrates operational efficiency advantages.
Introduction
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) and Toll Brothers (TOL) represent two distinct players in the U.S. homebuilding industry. This comparison examines their business models, recent stock behavior, and market positioning to assist traders and investors evaluating exposure to residential construction. The analysis is relevant for those monitoring sector dynamics influenced by interest rates, consumer demand, and regional housing trends. Participants in the equities market seeking objective data on relative performance and risk factors within the homebuilder space may find the review useful for portfolio considerations.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners, Inc. develops and builds homes primarily in Texas and other Sun Belt markets through its subsidiaries. The company focuses on entry-level and move-up segments with an emphasis on operational efficiency. In recent weeks, GRBK released second-quarter 2026 results showing revenue of $493.8 million, exceeding estimates, and diluted EPS of $1.70, also ahead of consensus. Net income attributable to the company declined year-over-year. The stock has traded in a range around $70 amid broader market activity, supported by its reported gross margins that rank among the highest in the sector. Sentiment has reflected steady execution despite housing market headwinds such as elevated financing costs.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. specializes in luxury single-family homes and communities across multiple U.S. regions. The company maintains a diversified geographic footprint and premium positioning. During recent market activity, TOL reported prior-quarter results that beat estimates on both earnings and revenue. The stock closed near $148.27 as of mid-August 2026, with year-to-date performance around 10%. Attention has centered on the upcoming fiscal third-quarter earnings release scheduled for August 18, 2026. Broader sentiment incorporates factors including luxury buyer resilience and ongoing community openings, set against industry-wide pressures from mortgage rates and inventory levels.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) and Toll Brothers (TOL) differ in scale and target segments, with GRBK operating as a smaller, regionally concentrated builder and TOL functioning as a larger luxury-focused enterprise. Growth drivers for GRBK center on margin expansion and market-share gains in value segments, while TOL benefits from brand strength and premium pricing power. Recent momentum shows GRBK with earnings beats tied to cost discipline, contrasted with TOL’s steadier profile ahead of its earnings date. Risk factors include shared exposure to interest-rate sensitivity and housing affordability challenges, though GRBK carries higher concentration risk due to its geographic focus. Sector exposure remains identical within homebuilding, yet market sentiment appears balanced, with neither stock displaying pronounced outperformance in the latest period relative to broader indices.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in recent earnings delivery, margin stability, and relative positioning within the sector, Tickeron’s AI models currently indicate a probabilistic preference toward GRBK for its demonstrated operational efficiency. This assessment weighs GRBK’s recent results and margin profile against TOL’s larger scale and upcoming earnings event without implying certainty or forward guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a Hold and TOL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +2.07% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -0.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.14%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.63% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| GRBK | TOL | GRBK / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 3.09B | 13.7B | 23% |
| EBITDA | 376M | 1.7B | 22% |
| Gain YTD | 14.778 | 9.374 | 158% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.83 | 11.85 | 91% |
| Revenue | 2.03B | 11B | 18% |
| Total Cash | 132M | 1.11B | 12% |
| Total Debt | 292M | 2.92B | 10% |
GRBK | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 27 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (64). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (41). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (54). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (53). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (27). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 76% | 19 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 63% | 6 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 63% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| AVMC | 81.22 | 0.50 | +0.62% |
| Avantis U.S. Mid Cap Equity ETF | |||
| IBDR | 24.23 | 0.01 | +0.06% |
| iShares iBonds Dec 2026 Term Corp ETF | |||
| KIQQ | 24.86 | 0.01 | +0.03% |
| KraneSharesInspereXNasdaqDynBfrdHInIdETF | |||
| NEMD | 52.62 | 0.01 | +0.01% |
| Neuberger Em Mkts Debt Hard Ccy ETF | |||
| NOVZ | 47.89 | N/A | N/A |
| TrueShares Structured Outcome Nov ETF | |||
GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | +1.48% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | +1.04% | ||
| TMHC - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | +0.89% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | +1.36% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | +1.67% | ||
More | ||||
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.