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GRBK vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two homebuilders, two segments: GRBK (Green Brick Partners) targets entry-level and first-time move-up buyers, while TOL (Toll Brothers) focuses on the luxury market.
- Margin profile differs sharply: Green Brick reports an industry-leading homebuilding gross margin near 30%, while Toll Brothers operates in the mid-20% range.
- Growth levers diverge: Green Brick is scaling orders and its mortgage arm, whereas Toll Brothers is expanding community count and returning more cash via buybacks and dividends.
- Both face affordability and mortgage-rate headwinds, but Toll's more affluent customer base has shown relative resilience.
- Balance sheets are strong at both companies, with Green Brick carrying notably lower net debt-to-capital than Toll Brothers.
Introduction
Green Brick Partners and Toll Brothers sit in the same sector but occupy almost opposite ends of the U.S. housing market. Comparing them offers a useful lens on how investors weigh growth, margin quality, and cyclical risk within homebuilding. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors who want to understand relative performance and market positioning between a fast-growing, Texas-centric builder and a diversified national luxury brand. The two companies report on different fiscal calendars, so figures below reference each company's most recent disclosed quarter rather than an identical period.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
GRBK, or Green Brick Partners, is a Plano, Texas-based homebuilder and land developer concentrated in the Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, and Florida markets. Its strategy centers on self-developed master-planned communities and infill locations, with brands such as Trophy Signature Homes serving more affordable price points.
In its most recent quarter, Green Brick grew net new home orders 19% year over year to 1,079 units and reported a homebuilding gross margin of 29.8%, among the highest of public peers. That margin quality is supported by a disciplined land strategy, a low 6.1% net homebuilding debt-to-total-capital ratio, and roughly $462 million in total liquidity. Net income declined year over year, however, as a higher mix of lower-priced Trophy homes reduced average selling prices. Book value per share rose about 16% year over year. In recent weeks the stock has traded in the high-$60s, below its 52-week high, as broader affordability concerns and elevated mortgage rates weigh on sentiment across the sector.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL, or Toll Brothers, is a national luxury homebuilder headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, with communities across more than 20 states. Its average delivered home sells for roughly $1 million, and its luxury move-up segment, where homes average about $1.35 million, drives the largest share of revenue.
In its most recent quarters, Toll Brothers delivered steady order growth and reaffirmed full-year guidance of roughly $10.5 billion in home sales revenue, supported by expanding community count and a resilient, wealthier buyer base. Adjusted gross margin has held in the mid-20% range, and management has prioritized price and margin over aggressive volume. The company continues to return capital aggressively, repurchasing shares and raising its quarterly dividend, while maintaining ample liquidity and an investment-grade balance sheet. Recent market activity has left the stock below its 52-week high even as its year-over-year return remains positive, reflecting a market still cautious about luxury housing demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is customer mix and margin. Green Brick earns a premium gross margin by controlling land and selling more affordable homes at scale, while Toll Brothers trades some margin for brand positioning and a higher-priced, less rate-sensitive clientele. Growth drivers also differ: Green Brick is expanding order volume and its in-house mortgage business, whereas Toll Brothers is growing its community count and leaning on share repurchases to support earnings per share (EPS, or profit attributable to each share).
Risk profiles diverge accordingly. Green Brick's geographic concentration in Texas, Georgia, and Florida leaves it more exposed to regional demand swings, while its low leverage provides a cushion. Toll Brothers' national diversification reduces single-market risk, but its luxury positioning ties performance more closely to affluent-buyer sentiment and financial-market wealth effects. On sector exposure, both contend with the same mortgage-rate and affordability backdrop, yet recent order trends show Toll's customer base holding up while Green Brick leans more heavily on incentives to sustain sales pace.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor GRBK at the margin in the current environment. Green Brick's combination of industry-leading gross margins, rapid order growth, minimal net leverage, and expanding financial-services earnings offers a steadier, higher-quality earnings profile. Toll Brothers remains a strong, well-capitalized operator with a resilient luxury franchise, but its reliance on buybacks to support EPS growth and its softer margin trajectory make its near-term setup comparatively less compelling from a purely probabilistic, trend-based perspective.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a Buy and TOL is a StrongBuy.
GRBK sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On October 22, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for GRBK moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 61 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 48 of the 61 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRBK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GRBK as a result. In 59 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +0.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GRBK advanced for three days, in 227 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
GRBK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.354) is normal, around the industry mean (1.669). P/E Ratio (9.111) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.830). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 64 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.459) is normal, around the industry mean (1.669). P/E Ratio (10.804) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.830). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TOL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
GRBK | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 69 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (69). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (42). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (58). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (69) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (73). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (35). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 74% | 21 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 2 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.93% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +3.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +4.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+4.20% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | +7.02% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | +7.27% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | +5.84% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | +4.47% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | +6.25% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 81% Closely correlated | +7.39% | ||
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TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.