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IYC vs ONLN
Which ETF would AI Choose? iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF (IYC) vs. ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN)
Key Takeaways
- IYC offers broad, diversified exposure to the U.S. consumer discretionary sector through roughly 170 holdings, while ONLN is a concentrated thematic fund holding about 21–24 online-retail companies.
- IYC charges a net expense ratio of approximately 0.37%, roughly 21 basis points cheaper than ONLN's 0.58%, giving it a structural cost advantage over time.
- ONLN is non-diversified and heavily weighted to e-commerce names, with meaningful emerging-market and mid/small-cap exposure, creating a higher volatility and single-stock risk profile.
- Both funds are anchored by AMZN, but ONLN carries roughly a 24% weight to the stock versus about 15% for IYC, amplifying idiosyncratic risk.
- IYC is larger and more liquid, with a passive, capitalization-weighted, capped-index structure, while ONLN is smaller and theme-driven with modified market-cap weighting.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: IYC — the AI favors the more diversified, lower-cost, more liquid fund with broader sector representation and a more balanced risk profile.
Introduction
Investors weighing the consumer discretionary space often encounter two very different instruments: the IYC (iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF), a broad sector fund, and ONLN (ProShares Online Retail ETF), a narrow e-commerce thematic product. The two do not compete head-to-head; rather, they represent alternative expressions of consumer spending exposure. IYC spans autos, restaurants, retail, media, and travel, while ONLN concentrates on companies that sell primarily through digital channels. This ETF comparison is timely because shifts in discretionary spending, interest rates, and e-commerce growth are reshaping relative positioning across both strategies.
iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF (IYC) Overview
IYC is a passively managed fund that seeks to track the Russell 1000 Consumer Discretionary 40 Act 15/22.5 Daily Capped Index, which measures the consumer discretionary sector of the U.S. equity market as defined by FTSE Russell. The fund uses a representative sampling strategy and holds roughly 170 securities spanning large- and mid-capitalization companies.
Top holdings include AMZN, TSLA, WMT, COST, HD, NFLX, MCD, DIS, TJX, and UBER. Sector exposure is dominated by consumer cyclical stocks (roughly two-thirds of assets), with meaningful representation from communication services and consumer staples. The underlying index caps any single issuer near 15% and limits the aggregate weight of larger names, helping temper concentration. The net expense ratio is approximately 0.37%.
ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) Overview
ONLN is a non-diversified, passively managed fund that tracks the ProShares Online Retail Index, a global benchmark of U.S.-listed companies deemed to be online retailers. Launched in 2018, the fund holds roughly 21–24 stocks and applies a modified market-capitalization weighting.
The portfolio is heavily concentrated in AMZN at around 24%, followed by BABA, EBAY, CVNA, PDD, MELI, CPNG, W, and ETSY. Nearly all assets sit in the consumer cyclical sector, with a small technology slice. Unlike IYC, ONLN carries meaningful non-U.S. exposure — including emerging Asia and Latin America — and a larger allocation to mid- and small-cap names. Its expense ratio is 0.58%, and its smaller asset base and lower trading volume make it structurally less liquid.
Industry and Thematic Backdrop
Both funds live or die by the health of the consumer. Discretionary spending remains sensitive to interest rate expectations, wage growth, and household balance sheets, while e-commerce continues to gain share of retail sales. ONLN concentrates this theme purely in digital commerce, exposing it to competition from giants, logistics costs, and China-related regulatory and tariff dynamics through names such as BABA and PDD. IYC, by contrast, blends cyclical retailers with autos, media, restaurants, and travel, diversifying across multiple spending sub-themes. In recent market cycles, mixed consumer confidence and elevated financing costs have pressured discretionary equities, while idiosyncratic swings in individual e-commerce names have amplified volatility for narrow thematic funds like ONLN.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
Over recent weeks and the trailing year, the two funds have exhibited notably different behavior. IYC's broader sector exposure and capping mechanism have helped smooth company-specific shocks, producing comparatively more stable relative positioning. ONLN's concentration in a handful of e-commerce names — led by an outsized AMZN weight — has made its fund performance more volatile, with sharper drawdowns during periods of risk aversion and elevated sensitivity to individual earnings reports and emerging-market sentiment.
The divergence also reflects structural factors rather than short-term price moves. IYC's higher liquidity and deeper diversification generally translate to lower tracking risk and narrower bid-ask spreads. ONLN's thinner trading volume and concentrated book can magnify both upside and downside. Investors focused on diversified consumer exposure tend to favor IYC, while ONLN appeals to those seeking pure-play, higher-beta digital-commerce exposure and are comfortable with its concentration and emerging-market tilt.
AI Screener
Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities far more efficiently than manual screening. For investors evaluating consumer and retail exposure, the AI Screener offers a data-driven way to surface relative strength and positioning before committing capital.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing structural strength, cost efficiency, diversification, liquidity, and risk exposure, Tickeron's AI would currently favor IYC over ONLN. IYC's lower expense ratio, larger and more liquid asset base, capping methodology, and exposure across multiple consumer sub-industries offer a more balanced risk-return profile. ONLN's non-diversified structure, heavier single-stock concentration, higher fees, and emerging-market sensitivity introduce additional volatility that is not consistently compensated. While ONLN may outperform during sharp e-commerce rallies, the AI's probabilistic assessment favors the broader, more resilient structure of IYC for most investors seeking consumer discretionary exposure.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IYC is a Buy and ONLN is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for IYC turns positive, indicating new upward trend
IYC saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 88 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 80 of the 88 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for IYC just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where IYC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
IYC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for IYC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +0.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IYC advanced for three days, in 255 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 244 of 293 cases where IYC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for IYC moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 47 of 64 cases where IYC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IYC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
IYC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
ONLN's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ONLN turned positive on November 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where ONLN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 48 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 52 of 60 cases where ONLN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ONLN as a result. In 60 of 74 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
ONLN moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ONLN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Following a +1.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONLN advanced for three days, in 264 of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 184 of 223 cases where ONLN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ONLN moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 83%.
The 50-day moving average for ONLN moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONLN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
ONLN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
| IYC | ONLN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 90% | 4 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 86% | 4 days ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 82% | 4 days ago 86% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 85% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 82% | 12 days ago 86% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | 4 days ago 84% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 83% |
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IYC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IYC has been closely correlated with HD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IYC jumps, then HD could also see price increases.
ONLN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONLN has been loosely correlated with JMIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ONLN jumps, then JMIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONLN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONLN | 100% | -0.69% | ||
| JMIA - ONLN | 60% Loosely correlated | +7.44% | ||
| DASH - ONLN | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.14% | ||
| BZUN - ONLN | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.58% | ||
| FVRR - ONLN | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.31% | ||
| VIPS - ONLN | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.79% | ||
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