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KEY vs MTB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KeyCorp (KEY) and M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) are both regional banks with exposure to commercial lending and deposit-taking activities.
- Recent market activity shows divergent performance, with KEY demonstrating stronger price gains in certain periods compared to MTB.
- MTB maintains a larger market capitalization and has shown more consistent longer-term returns in recent comparisons.
- Both stocks are influenced by interest rate environments, credit quality metrics such as net charge-offs (NCO), and regulatory capital ratios like Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1).
- Sector sentiment remains tied to broader banking trends, including net interest income (NII) margins and merger and acquisition (M&A) activity.
- AI-driven analysis highlights relative positioning based on trend stability and risk-adjusted metrics.
Introduction
KeyCorp (KEY) and M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) represent two established players in the U.S. regional banking sector. This comparison examines their business models, recent stock behavior, and market positioning to assist investors and traders evaluating financial sector exposure. Professionals seeking relative performance insights, as well as those new to bank stocks, may find value in understanding how these tickers respond to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and economic growth. The analysis draws on observable data to highlight contrasts without favoring either name.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp (KEY) operates as a diversified financial services company focused on commercial banking, wealth management, and consumer services primarily in the Midwest and Northeast. In recent weeks, KEY shares have reflected positive momentum amid broader market activity, with gains noted in market capitalization metrics. Factors influencing sentiment include quarterly earnings reports and adjustments in net interest income (NII) expectations. Recent market activity has been shaped by investor focus on credit quality and capital strength, contributing to price appreciation in the period.
MTB Overview and Recent Performance
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) provides commercial and retail banking services across multiple states, with a strong emphasis on middle-market lending and wealth management. In recent market activity, MTB has exhibited more measured performance relative to peers, supported by its established franchise and deposit base. Sentiment has been influenced by stable earnings trends and capital management strategies. Broader time references show MTB maintaining competitive positioning through consistent operational execution amid varying economic conditions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, both KeyCorp (KEY) and M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) emphasize commercial lending, yet MTB operates with a larger asset base and broader geographic footprint. Growth drivers differ as KEY has shown stronger recent price momentum in select metrics, while MTB benefits from established scale and potentially steadier deposit franchise. Recent momentum favors KEY in shorter-term gains, though MTB has delivered superior returns over twelve-month periods in available comparisons. Risk factors include exposure to commercial real estate for both, with MTB potentially offering more diversified revenue streams. Sector exposure centers on banking, where interest rate sensitivity and regulatory capital requirements like CET1 ratios play key roles. Market sentiment reflects ongoing evaluation of net charge-offs (NCO) and net interest income (NII) trends, creating trade-offs between growth potential and stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a probabilistic edge to M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) due to its scale, longer-term return profile, and stability indicators. KEY shows competitive recent momentum that could support outperformance in certain scenarios. The assessment remains data-driven and subject to evolving market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Hold and MTB is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMTB’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MTB’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTB’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MTB’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а -3.82% price change this week, while MTB (@Regional Banks) price change was +0.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
MTB is expected to report earnings on Oct 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.57% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| KEY | MTB | KEY / MTB | |
| Capitalization | 24.3B | 36.2B | 67% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 11.923 | 25.618 | 47% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.25 | 13.21 | 100% |
| Revenue | 7.47B | 9.73B | 77% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.9B | - |
| Total Debt | 17B | 19B | 89% |
KEY | MTB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 90 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 33 Fair valued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 8 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 18 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (33) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MTB (60) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to MTB’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (74) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's SMR Rating (8) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (10) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's Price Growth Rating (18) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (47) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (87) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | MTB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 64% | 10 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 18 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 53% |
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MTB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTB has been closely correlated with RF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTB jumps, then RF could also see price increases.