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KEY vs MTB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both KEY and MTB are U.S. regional banks, but they diverge sharply in scale, profitability profile, and recent price momentum.
- KEY is in an earlier-stage earnings recovery, with net interest income (NII) rising double digits year over year as its net interest margin (NIM) rebuilds toward roughly 3%.
- MTB is a more mature, higher-margin franchise (NIM near 3.65%) that delivered a solid third quarter, yet its shares have pulled back on efficiency and funding-cost concerns.
- Relative performance has favored KEY on improving momentum, while MTB has trailed the broader market in recent weeks despite steady fundamentals.
- Credit quality remains a shared watchpoint for both names, alongside the direction of deposit costs and interest rates.
Introduction
Regional banks sit at the intersection of interest-rate policy, commercial lending, and consumer deposits, making them a useful lens for gauging the health of the broader U.S. economy. This stock comparison examines two prominent names in that space: KEY (KeyCorp) and MTB (M&T Bank Corporation). Although both operate in the same sector, they differ meaningfully in size, business mix, and stage of the earnings cycle. For traders and investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning, understanding these contrasts can clarify where each stock stands in the current environment and how their risk profiles differ.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KEY is KeyCorp, a Cleveland-based regional bank with a commercial and wealth-focused franchise serving clients across the United States. Following a difficult 2024, the bank has been rebuilding profitability, and recent market activity reflects growing confidence in that turnaround. In its most recent quarterly results, KEY reported earnings per share (EPS) up more than 30% year over year, supported by double-digit growth in net interest income (NII, the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits).
Management raised its full-year NII growth guidance and now targets an exit net interest margin (NIM) of roughly 3.05%, up from about 2.87%. Commercial loan growth, record investment-banking fees, and momentum in wealth and payments businesses have reinforced sentiment. KEY has also accelerated share repurchases, signaling confidence in its capital position, with its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio — a key measure of a bank's core capital strength — reported near 11.4%. Rising credit costs and a comparatively lower margin remain the primary counterweights to the bullish narrative.
MTB Overview and Recent Performance
MTB is M&T Bank Corporation, a Buffalo, New York-based regional bank with roughly $220 billion in assets and a strong footprint in the Mid-Atlantic and New England. It operates a community-banking model alongside wealth management through Wilmington Trust and a corporate trust business. In its latest quarter, MTB posted adjusted EPS that beat consensus estimates, driven by loan growth across commercial real estate, consumer, and residential portfolios, and by stable deposit gathering.
Despite the earnings beat, the shares have lagged in recent weeks as investors focused on a slight compression in the bank's NIM (to about 3.65%) and a higher efficiency ratio driven by ongoing technology spending. MTB also ranked first nationally in SBA (Small Business Administration) 7(a) lending by loan count for the fiscal year, a notable competitive milestone. Its CET1 ratio of about 10.2% and roughly $323 million in quarterly buybacks underscore solid capital management, while expense growth and deposit-cost pressure remain the key areas of scrutiny.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two names is profitability and maturity. MTB runs a structurally higher NIM (around 3.65%) and a larger, more established franchise, giving it steadier earnings but less room for dramatic margin expansion. KEY, by contrast, is in an earlier phase of its recovery, with a lower current NIM (near 2.87%) but faster percentage growth in NII as it reprices assets and manages deposit costs.
Growth drivers also differ. KEY is leaning on investment banking, wealth, and commercial payments to diversify revenue, while MTB emphasizes cross-selling fee income, mortgage servicing, and capital markets. On risk, both face similar sector-wide pressures — deposit repricing, credit normalization, and regulatory capital requirements — but MTB's higher efficiency ratio and technology spend, versus KEY's lower profitability baseline, frame the trade-off between stability and turnaround potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative positioning, and near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward KEY in the current environment. The stock's improving NII trajectory, expanding NIM, accelerating loan growth, and rising capital returns present a clearer, more consistent momentum signal than MTB's steadier but recently pressured profile. That said, MTB's higher margins and proven stability make it a more defensive alternative. This reflects a probabilistic assessment of relative positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and either name's outlook can shift quickly with changes in rates, credit, and deposit costs.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Hold and MTB is a Hold.
KEY sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On October 05, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for KEY moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 44 of the 59 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KEY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +1.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEY advanced for three days, in 177 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
KEY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KEY as a result. In 55 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The 50-day moving average for KEY moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KEY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator for KEY entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.233) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (11.555) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.332) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.996) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. KEY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Momentum Indicator for MTB turns negative, indicating new downward trend
MTB saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 76 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 55 of the 76 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for MTB entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MTB's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 57 cases where MTB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTB just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
MTB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MTB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.219) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (11.325) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.307) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.488) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
KEY | MTB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 6 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 36 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (54) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MTB (63) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to MTB’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (78) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's SMR Rating (6) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (7) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (57) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's P/E Growth Rating (36) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (87) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | MTB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MTB’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.10% price change this week, while MTB (@Regional Banks) price change was -1.02% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
MTB is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.78% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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MTB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTB has been closely correlated with RF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTB jumps, then RF could also see price increases.