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KEY vs MTB
KeyCorp (KEY) vs M&T Bank (MTB) Earnings Preview: Q1 Results Signal Regional Banking Momentum
Key Takeaways
- M&T Bank (MTB) reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 15, with analysts expecting $4.01 EPS and $2.43 billion revenue, reflecting 18.6% EPS growth year-over-year.
- KeyCorp (KEY) follows on April 16, projected at $0.41 EPS and $1.93 billion revenue, up 24.2% in EPS from prior year.
- Both banks enter earnings with strong CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1, a key measure of core capital strength) ratios: MTB at 10.84%, KEY at 11.7% as of Q4 2025.
- Q4 2025 results showed NII (net interest income, profit from loans minus deposit costs) growth: KEY up 15% YoY to $1.22 billion (NIM 2.82%), MTB steady at $1.78 billion (NIM 3.69%).
- Expect focus on deposit stability, loan growth in C&I (commercial and industrial), and CRE (commercial real estate) moderation amid rate cuts.
- Share repurchases active: MTB $507 million in Q4, KEY $200 million, supporting ROTCE (return on tangible common equity, profitability on tangible capital).
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Regional banks like KEY and MTB operate in overlapping Midwest and Northeast markets, competing for commercial loans, deposits, and fee income from trust and mortgage services. Earnings previews highlight resilience in a shifting rate environment, with deposit betas (sensitivity to rate changes) and NIM expansion key to profitability. MTB's larger scale ($213 billion assets, $166 billion deposits) contrasts KEY's ($184 billion assets, $151 billion average deposits), but both benefit from C&I loan growth and controlled NCOs (net charge-offs, loan losses). Investors watch for guidance on 2026 NII amid Fed cuts, CRE exposure, and capital returns via buybacks and dividends.
M&T Bank Focus
M&T Bank (MTB) releases Q1 2026 results on April 15 before market open, with a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET. Analysts forecast $4.01 diluted EPS, up 18.6% YoY, and $2.43 billion revenue, a 5.3% increase. Building on Q4 2025's $4.72 operating EPS (beat estimates by 6%) and $2.47 billion revenue, focus areas include NIM stability around 3.70%, average loans near $138 billion (C&I and consumer growth offsetting CRE decline), and deposits at $163-164 billion. Provision for credit losses expected stable, with NCO ratio 40-50 bps. CET1 at 10.84% supports $507 million Q4 repurchases. Management eyes 2026 NII of $7.2-7.35 billion, emphasizing relationship deposits and operational efficiency.
KeyCorp Context
KeyCorp (KEY) reports Q1 2026 on April 16 before open, call at 10:00 a.m. ET. Consensus: $0.41 EPS (+24.2% YoY), $1.93 billion revenue (+8.6%). Q4 2025 delivered $0.41 adjusted EPS (beat by 8%), $2.01 billion revenue, NII $1.22 billion (+15% YoY, NIM 2.82%). Average loans $106 billion, deposits $151 billion. Credit improved: NCOs 39 bps, NPAs down 6%. CET1 11.7% enabled $200 million buybacks. 2026 outlook: revenue +7%, NII +8-10%, expenses +3-4%, loans +1-2% (commercial-led), ROTCE path to 15%+ by 2027.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
MTB edges in scale (market cap ~$33 billion vs KEY ~$23 billion; assets $213B vs $184B; loans $138B vs $106B) and NIM (3.69% vs 2.82%), yielding superior EPS. KEY counters with faster EPS growth projection, higher CET1 (11.7% vs 10.84%), and investment banking fees (up 32% Q4). Both show deposit growth (MTB +1% QoQ, KEY client-driven), controlled CRE (MTB moderating decline, KEY stable), and low NCOs (~40 bps). Risks: rate cuts pressure NII, CRE stress elevates provisions. Sentiment favors MTB for stability, KEY for momentum—both repurchased aggressively, signaling confidence amid peer M&A interest.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors MTB (60% probability) for superior scale, NIM stability, and ROTCE trajectory, though KEY's capital strength and growth outlook make it a close contender (40%) if Q1 beats and guidance shines.
Disclaimer
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To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a StrongBuy and MTB is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMTB’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTB’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а +5.27% price change this week, while MTB (@Regional Banks) price change was +4.63% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +4.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.48%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.24%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
MTB is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+4.63% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| KEY | MTB | KEY / MTB | |
| Capitalization | 23.7B | 32.8B | 72% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 8.612 | 12.698 | 68% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.48 | 12.57 | 107% |
| Revenue | 7.47B | 9.73B | 77% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.9B | - |
| Total Debt | 17B | 19B | 89% |
KEY | MTB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 39 Fair valued | 52 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 27 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 49 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 44 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (39) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MTB (52) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to MTB’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (78) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's SMR Rating (100) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (100) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (26) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MTB (27) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to MTB’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's P/E Growth Rating (49) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (87) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | MTB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 70% | 14 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 50% |
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MTB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTB has been closely correlated with RF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTB jumps, then RF could also see price increases.