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MATV vs OLN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Mativ Holdings (MATV) vs. Olin Corporation (OLN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business profiles: MATV is a specialty-materials manufacturer, while OLN spans chemicals and ammunition (Winchester).
- Earnings divergence: Mativ expanded margins and posted record free cash flow, while Olin swung to a full-year net loss despite slightly higher sales.
- Momentum gap: Olin has shown stronger recent price rebounds from a much weaker base, whereas Mativ's gains have been steadier but more modest.
- Leverage is comparable: Both companies carry elevated debt relative to earnings, near or above a 4x net-leverage ratio.
- Risk profiles differ: Mativ faces soft end-market demand, while Olin contends with chemical-industry oversupply and pricing pressure.
Introduction
Investors screening the materials and chemicals sector often weigh specialized manufacturers against diversified commodity-chemical producers, and the comparison between Mativ Holdings and Olin Corporation illustrates that choice clearly. These two names operate in adjacent but distinct markets, giving traders a useful lens on how relative performance and market positioning can diverge even within the same broad industry. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors evaluating turnaround stories, cash-flow quality, and cyclical exposure. Understanding how each company has navigated recent market activity helps clarify which profile may align with a given risk appetite and time horizon.
MATV Overview and Recent Performance
Mativ Holdings (MATV) is a specialty-materials company headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia, operating through two segments: Filtration & Advanced Materials (FAM) and Sustainable & Adhesive Solutions (SAS). Its engineered films, filtration media, tapes, labels, and release liners serve diversified industrial and consumer end markets across more than 100 countries.
In recent quarters, Mativ's performance has been defined by margin discipline rather than top-line growth. Net sales have been essentially flat, with modest organic growth of roughly 2.5% for full-year 2025, while adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose and margins expanded by about 180 basis points in the latest quarter. A standout has been free cash flow, which reached a company record of approximately $94 million, more than double the prior year. Management has also reduced net debt by over $60 million. Investor sentiment has been cautiously optimistic but tempered by persistently soft demand in categories such as labels, automotive tapes, and release liners, particularly in Europe, and by expected raw-material cost inflation in resins and polymers.
OLN Overview and Recent Performance
Olin Corporation (OLN) is a vertically integrated chemical manufacturer and a leading U.S. ammunition producer through its Winchester segment. Its chemical portfolio includes chlorine and caustic soda (chlor-alkali products), vinyls, and epoxies, exposing the company to global pricing cycles and industrial demand.
Recent market activity has been mixed for Olin. Full-year 2025 sales rose slightly to about $6.8 billion, but the company swung to a net loss of roughly $42.8 million from a profit a year earlier, reflecting weak chemical pricing, customer destocking, and higher raw-material costs. The chlor-alkali and vinyls segment posted a fourth-quarter loss, and Winchester earnings fell sharply on lower commercial ammunition pricing, partially offset by higher military sales. Despite these headwinds, Olin's share price has rebounded notably over the trailing 30- and 90-day periods from a depressed longer-term base, while management has continued a multi-year buyback program and pursued cost-reduction initiatives alongside new supply agreements intended to stabilize its chemical chain.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The central contrast between these two stocks is business model. MATV operates in specialty, value-added materials with pricing power and a focus on cash generation and deleveraging, but its growth is constrained by sluggish industrial demand. OLN is a larger, more cyclical producer whose earnings swing with commodity-chemical prices and ammunition demand, offering greater upside leverage in a recovery but also sharper downside in downturns.
On recent momentum, Olin has delivered the stronger short-term percentage rebound, though it is recovering from a multi-year decline and a swing into losses. Mativ's relative performance has been steadier, supported by record free cash flow and improving margins. Risk factors also differ: Mativ faces input-cost inflation and European volume weakness, while Olin contends with global chemical overcapacity, pricing pressure, and elevated net debt of roughly $2.7 billion. From a sentiment standpoint, Olin currently carries a more cautious analyst posture, whereas Mativ's turnaround narrative is anchored in operational execution rather than cyclical recovery.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, cash-flow quality, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward MATV in the current environment. The company's improving margins, record free cash flow, and progress on deleveraging offer a steadier technical and fundamental profile, even amid soft demand. OLN presents a higher-beta (more volatile) recovery opportunity with recent price momentum, but its swing into losses and dependence on chemical pricing cycles introduce greater uncertainty. As with any probabilistic model, this assessment reflects current conditions and could shift as pricing trends and demand signals evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MATV is a StrongBuy and OLN is a StrongBuy.
MATV sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On October 21, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for MATV moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 63 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 49 of the 63 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MATV as a result. In 60 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MATV just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where MATV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
MATV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MATV advanced for three days, in 197 of 283 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
MATV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 81 of 123 cases where MATV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for MATV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MATV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MATV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.377) is normal, around the industry mean (2.359). P/E Ratio (7.159) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.286). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.767) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.332) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MATV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
OLN's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for OLN moved out of oversold territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 28 of the 37 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 55 cases where OLN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OLN just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where OLN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +4.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OLN advanced for three days, in 183 of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
OLN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OLN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator for OLN entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.994) is normal, around the industry mean (1.145). P/E Ratio (-8.630) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.185). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.050) is also within normal values, averaging (3.769). Dividend Yield (0.054) settles around the average of (0.139) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.289) is also within normal values, averaging (0.578).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. OLN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. OLN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
MATV | OLN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 94 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 82 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OLN's Valuation (39) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MATV (78) in the Pulp And Paper industry. This means that OLN’s stock grew somewhat faster than MATV’s over the last 12 months.
OLN's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as MATV (100) in the Pulp And Paper industry. This means that OLN’s stock grew similarly to MATV’s over the last 12 months.
MATV's SMR Rating (46) in the Pulp And Paper industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OLN (94) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that MATV’s stock grew somewhat faster than OLN’s over the last 12 months.
MATV's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Pulp And Paper industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OLN (82) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that MATV’s stock grew somewhat faster than OLN’s over the last 12 months.
MATV's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Pulp And Paper industry is significantly better than the same rating for OLN (97) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that MATV’s stock grew significantly faster than OLN’s over the last 12 months.
| MATV | OLN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 7 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MATV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while OLN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MATV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- OLN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MATV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OLN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MATV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- OLN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
MATV (@Chemicals: Specialty) experienced а +1.29% price change this week, while OLN (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) price change was -0.67% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was +0.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.75%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Major Diversified industry was -2.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was -26.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
MATV is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
OLN is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Specialty (+0.09% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
@Chemicals: Major Diversified (-2.10% weekly)The major diversified chemicals industry includes companies that produce a wide range of chemicals and industrial gases. The products are often used as raw materials in the manufacturing of various types of goods, including plastics, paints, carpets, and fixtures to name a few. Major companies making diversified chemicals include DuPont de Nemours Inc., Celanese Corporation, Celanese Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
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MATV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MATV has been loosely correlated with OLN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MATV jumps, then OLN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MATV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MATV | 100% | +4.34% | ||
| OLN - MATV | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.09% | ||
| AVNT - MATV | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.27% | ||
| HUN - MATV | 50% Loosely correlated | +5.95% | ||
| ASIX - MATV | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.55% | ||
| KRO - MATV | 48% Loosely correlated | +2.14% | ||
More | ||||
OLN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OLN has been closely correlated with DOW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OLN jumps, then DOW could also see price increases.