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NEM vs OGC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Newmont Corporation (NEM) vs. OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale contrast: NEM is the world's largest gold miner with a market capitalization near $125 billion, while OGC is a mid-tier producer valued near $6 billion.
- Momentum gap: NEM has delivered stronger recent relative performance, gaining roughly 20% year-to-date, while OGC has lagged with a single-digit year-to-date return.
- Risk profiles differ: OGC carries a higher beta (a measure of volatility versus the broader market), while NEM's larger, more diversified portfolio trades with lower volatility.
- Both benefit from gold: Record gold prices have supported record cash flow at both companies, with each holding more cash than debt.
- Valuation divide: OGC trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple, reflecting its mid-tier cost profile and smaller scale versus NEM's premium valuation.
Introduction
Gold miners have been a focal point for investors as bullion prices reached historic highs in recent months, driven by safe-haven demand, geopolitical tension, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Within this sector, NEM (Newmont Corporation) and OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) represent two very different ways to gain exposure to precious metals. This stock comparison examines how the world's largest gold producer stacks up against a nimble mid-tier operator across business model, recent momentum, valuation, and risk. Investors weighing stability and diversification against higher-beta growth potential may find this relative performance analysis particularly useful for understanding their market positioning.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
Newmont Corporation (NEM) is the world's largest gold mining company, with operations and assets spanning the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea. It also produces material byproduct volumes of copper, silver, zinc, and lead. In recent weeks, NEM shares have traded in a range reflecting both the tailwinds of elevated gold prices and softer near-term production guidance. The company's 2025 results featured record free cash flow of roughly $7.3 billion, and it has continued returning capital through dividends and an expanded share repurchase program. Sentiment has been supported by strong cash generation and a net cash position, while cost pressures tied to diesel and higher sustaining capital spending have tempered some enthusiasm. Analysts note NEM trades at a premium valuation relative to many gold peers, reflecting its scale and diversified asset base.
OGC Overview and Recent Performance
OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) is a mid-tier gold and copper producer operating four mines: the Haile mine in the United States, the Macraes and Waihi operations in New Zealand, and the 80%-owned Didipio mine in the Philippines. The company recently listed on the New York Stock Exchange, broadening its investor base while maintaining its Toronto listing. OGC has posted record revenue and strong free cash flow in recent quarters, supported by higher realized gold prices, and it holds a net debt-free balance sheet. Its relative performance has been more muted than larger peers, with the stock lagging NEM year-to-date. Investor attention has focused on higher all-in sustaining costs (AISC, a measure of the total cost to produce an ounce of gold), jurisdictional concentration in New Zealand and the Philippines, and progress on growth projects such as the Macraes Phase 4 expansion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply in scale and diversification. NEM's sprawling, multi-continent portfolio provides geographic and commodity diversification, including meaningful copper byproduct exposure, but also brings operational complexity. OGC's four-mine footprint is more concentrated, which can magnify the impact of a single asset's performance or a jurisdictional event.
On momentum and sentiment, NEM has been the stronger performer recently, buoyed by record cash flow, aggressive buybacks, and a net cash balance sheet. OGC has likewise generated strong free cash flow and is effectively debt-free, but its higher cost profile and higher beta have contributed to more subdued relative performance and greater price volatility.
Valuation presents a clear trade-off. OGC trades at a considerably lower earnings multiple, which some investors view as a deeper value opportunity, while NEM commands a premium that reflects its scale, liquidity, and byproduct diversification. Growth catalysts differ too: NEM is streamlining toward higher-quality Tier 1 assets, whereas OGC is investing in mine-life extensions and expansions such as Macraes Phase 4 and Didipio.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NEM in the current environment. The stock's stronger and more consistent uptrend, lower beta, larger liquidity, and sustained record cash generation support a more stable trend profile. NEM's diversified asset base and net cash position provide a more resilient foundation against cost and geopolitical headwinds. While OGC offers a more attractive valuation and meaningful growth catalysts, its higher volatility and concentrated operational footprint introduce greater uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting relative trend consistency, stability, and positioning rather than a forecast of guaranteed future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NEM is a Hold and OGC is a Hold.
NEM in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NEM as a result. In 52 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NEM turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 60 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 60 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
NEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NEM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +3.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 250 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.262) is normal, around the industry mean (1.743). P/E Ratio (13.705) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.676). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.357) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
OGC's Stochastic Oscillator dives into oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for OGC moved into oversold territory on November 02, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +4.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OGC advanced for three days, in 231 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
OGC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on OGC as a result. In 60 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for OGC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 60 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 49 of the 60 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
OGC moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for OGC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for OGC entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OGC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.135) is normal, around the industry mean (1.743). P/E Ratio (6.388) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.676). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.310) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.357) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.638) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
NEM | OGC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 85 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 97 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 40 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 38 | 27 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 19 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NEM's Valuation (93) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as OGC (97) in the null industry. This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to OGC’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as OGC (40) in the null industry. This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to OGC’s over the last 12 months.
OGC's SMR Rating (27) in the null industry is in the same range as NEM (38) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that OGC’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as OGC (61) in the null industry. This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to OGC’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OGC (89) in the null industry. This means that NEM’s stock grew somewhat faster than OGC’s over the last 12 months.
| NEM | OGC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 78% | 7 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 66% | 5 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 81% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NEM’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while OGC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- NEM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- OGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NEM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OGC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NEM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- OGC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
NEM (@Precious Metals) experienced а -1.18% price change this week, while OGC (@Precious Metals) price change was -1.82% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -8.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
NEM is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
OGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-8.25% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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NEM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NEM has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NEM jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.
OGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OGC has been closely correlated with WPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OGC jumps, then WPM could also see price increases.
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