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TSCO vs ULTA
Tractor Supply (TSCO) vs Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Earnings Recap: Recent Results Signal Divergent Retail Paths
Key Takeaways
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) reported Q4 FY2025 EPS of $8.01, beating estimates of $7.93, with net sales up 11.8% to $3.90 billion.
- TSCO posted Q4 FY2025 EPS of $0.43, missing estimates of $0.46, as net sales rose 3.3% to $3.90 billion amid soft discretionary demand.
- Ulta's full-year FY2025 comp sales grew 5.4%, guiding FY2026 EPS to $28.05-$28.55 (9.4%-11.4% growth); TSCO FY2025 comps up 1.2%, FY2026 EPS outlook $2.13-$2.23.
- Both firms operate ~2,400 stores but target distinct niches: rural lifestyle for TSCO, beauty/wellness for ULTA.
- Ulta's operating margin held at 12.4% FY2025; TSCO's dipped to 9.45% on higher SG&A.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Recent quarterly earnings from Tractor Supply (TSCO) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) highlight contrasting dynamics in specialty retail. Both released Q4 FY2025 results in early 2026—TSCO on January 29 and ULTA on March 12—offering insights into consumer spending across rural essentials and beauty categories. As comparable-store operators with similar store counts and market caps around $26-29 billion, they provide a lens on resilience amid economic shifts, with ULTA showing stronger momentum.
Ulta Beauty Focus
Ulta Beauty recapped its fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, with Q4 net sales of $3.90 billion, up 11.8%, driven by 5.8% comparable sales growth. Diluted EPS reached $8.01, surpassing consensus estimates of $7.93, while operating income hit $477 million (12.2% margin). Full-year net sales climbed 9.7% to $12.39 billion, with 5.4% comps, gross margin at 39.1%, and EPS of $25.64. CEO Kecia Steelman credited "bold merchandising and marketing strategies" for market share gains. For FY2026, Ulta guides net sales growth of 6%-7%, comps of 2.5%-3.5%, operating income up 6%-9%, and EPS of $28.05-$28.55.
Tractor Supply Context
Tractor Supply, with a December fiscal year-end, reported Q4 FY2025 net sales of $3.90 billion, a 3.3% increase, but comparable sales rose only 0.3% as discretionary items softened. Diluted EPS fell to $0.43 from $0.44 year-over-year, missing expectations, with net income down 3.8% to $227 million and operating margin contracting to 7.64% on elevated SG&A (27.5% of sales). Full-year sales grew 4.3% to $15.52 billion, comps up 1.2%, and EPS at $2.06. CEO Hal Lawton noted resilience in essentials but moderated demand. FY2026 outlook includes 4%-6% sales growth, 1%-3% comps, and EPS of $2.13-$2.23.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Ulta outperformed on growth, with Q4 sales acceleration and comps nearly 20x TSCO's, reflecting robust beauty demand versus TSCO's essential-heavy mix. Both hit $3.90 billion Q4 revenue, but Ulta's EPS ($8.01) dwarfs TSCO's ($0.43), yielding higher margins (Ulta 12.2% vs. TSCO 7.64% Q4). P/E ratios hover near 24, with market caps ~$26-29 billion. Ulta faces prestige competition; TSCO risks rural economic exposure. Guidance signals steady expansion for both, though Ulta's higher EPS growth edges stability.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors ULTA with 65% probability over the next quarter, citing superior earnings quality, comp sales momentum, and EPS growth trajectory amid stable beauty trends, versus TSCO's softer discretionary exposure.
Disclaimer
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To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TSCO is a Hold and ULTA is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
TSCO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileULTA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- TSCO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
TSCO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ULTA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- TSCO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
TSCO (@Specialty Stores) experienced а -3.26% price change this week, while ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price change was -4.26% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was -1.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
TSCO is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Specialty Stores (-1.25% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
| TSCO | ULTA | TSCO / ULTA | |
| Capitalization | 15.9B | 19.6B | 81% |
| EBITDA | 1.95B | 1.91B | 102% |
| Gain YTD | -38.768 | -24.608 | 158% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.90 | 17.10 | 87% |
| Revenue | 15.6B | 12.7B | 123% |
| Total Cash | 224M | 221M | 101% |
| Total Debt | 6.41B | 2.3B | 278% |
TSCO | ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 17 Undervalued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 90 | 67 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSCO's Valuation (17) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for ULTA (89). This means that TSCO’s stock grew significantly faster than ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Profit vs Risk Rating (67) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as TSCO (90). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to TSCO’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's SMR Rating (21) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as TSCO (22). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to TSCO’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Price Growth Rating (63) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as TSCO (65). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to TSCO’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's P/E Growth Rating (61) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as TSCO (90). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to TSCO’s over the last 12 months.
| TSCO | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 41% | 5 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 55% | 5 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 5 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 58% | 5 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 61% | 28 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 55% | 6 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 54% | 5 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 5 days ago 61% |
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TSCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSCO has been loosely correlated with CPRT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TSCO jumps, then CPRT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSCO | 100% | +1.65% | ||
| CPRT - TSCO | 56% Loosely correlated | +2.41% | ||
| HD - TSCO | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.08% | ||
| LOW - TSCO | 43% Loosely correlated | +2.27% | ||
| AZO - TSCO | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.16% | ||
| HNST - TSCO | 39% Loosely correlated | +5.90% | ||
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ULTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ULTA has been loosely correlated with HNST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ULTA jumps, then HNST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ULTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 100% | +1.19% | ||
| HNST - ULTA | 49% Loosely correlated | +5.90% | ||
| AN - ULTA | 46% Loosely correlated | +1.28% | ||
| CPRT - ULTA | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.41% | ||
| LOW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.27% | ||
| ABG - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +3.64% | ||
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