Automatic Data Processing, Manhattan Associates, and Paycom Software all sell enterprise software, yet they serve meaningfully different markets and face different competitive dynamics. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders weighing stability against growth, because the three names span the full spectrum from mature payroll leader to fast-growing cloud specialist. Understanding their relative performance, business models, and catalysts helps clarify which type of portfolio each may suit. The following sections examine recent financial results, market positioning, and the signals that may shape sentiment in the months ahead.
ADP (Automatic Data Processing) is one of the world's largest providers of human capital management (HCM) and payroll services, processing roughly one in six U.S. paychecks. Its scale and client-retention model give it a defensive quality rarely found among software peers. In recent quarters, revenue has grown at a mid-single-digit pace, supported by new business bookings and demand for platforms such as Workforce Now and Lyric HCM. Management has guided to roughly 5% to 6% revenue growth and 8% to 10% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth for the current fiscal year.
Recent market activity has been relatively subdued, with shares lagging the broader S&P 500 in recent weeks despite generally in-line or slightly better-than-expected results. Sentiment has been shaped by stable margins, ongoing interest income on client funds, and modestly softer employer-services retention tied to small-business dynamics. ADP also reached a notable milestone as a "Dividend King," having increased its dividend for 50 consecutive years, reinforcing its appeal to income-oriented and lower-volatility investors.
MANH (Manhattan Associates) develops supply chain and omnichannel commerce software used across retail, grocery, life sciences, and other verticals. The company's strategic focus is a transition toward cloud-based subscriptions and AI-powered capabilities. Recent results show the payoff of that pivot: cloud subscription revenue has climbed roughly 20% year over year, and remaining performance obligations (RPO) — a measure of contracted future revenue — expanded around 25%. The company carries no debt and ended its most recent period with a healthy cash position.
Performance has been characterized by accelerating cloud momentum and a rebound in services, offset by ongoing attrition in legacy license and maintenance revenue. Management's outlook anticipates double-digit total revenue growth excluding that attrition, alongside the commercial rollout of AI agents. Shares have modestly outperformed the market in recent weeks, though analyst estimate revisions have been mixed, reflecting some caution about near-term margin investment and a turbulent macroeconomic environment for global trade.
PAYC (Paycom Software) provides cloud-based HCM software known for its "Beti" employee-driven payroll technology and "IWant" AI assistant. The company operates a single-database architecture and emphasizes full-solution automation. In recent quarters, revenue has grown at a low-double-digit pace — the fastest among the three — and adjusted EBITDA margins have remained strong, near 43%. Revenue retention improved to about 91%, and the company reported a record number of clients returning to its platform.
Despite solid execution, recent market activity has been negative. Forward revenue guidance came in below consensus, and shares sold off sharply in response as investors weighed a more measured growth trajectory against continued investment in sales capacity. Operating margin also declined slightly year over year. This creates a contrast between Paycom's attractive product economics and the market's concern that its growth rate is normalizing faster than anticipated.
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These three stocks differ most sharply in business model, growth profile, and risk. ADP is a scale-driven, margin-stable incumbent whose earnings are cushioned by interest income on client funds and a massive recurring client base — a profile that tends to hold up well in downturns but offers limited upside. MANH sits in the middle: smaller and more volatile than ADP, yet benefiting from a clear cloud-migration catalyst and a debt-free balance sheet, while still exposed to retail and logistics spending cycles. PAYC offers the highest growth and strongest automation narrative, but carries the greatest valuation sensitivity and near-term execution risk, as evidenced by its guidance-driven sell-off.
From a momentum perspective, MANH's cloud acceleration and PAYC's revenue growth stand out, while ADP has been the laggard in relative performance. On stability and trend consistency, the order reverses: ADP's defensive earnings stream is the most predictable, followed by MANH, with PAYC most exposed to sentiment swings. Sector exposure also differs — ADP and PAYC compete directly in HCM, while MANH operates in supply chain execution, making MANH a diversification play within any software comparison.
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ADP among the three in the current environment. Its combination of predictable revenue, resilient margins, and a 50-year dividend-growth record suggests a steadier, more consistent trend profile that quantitative models tend to reward during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. That said, MANH presents a compelling secondary case given its accelerating cloud subscriptions and expanding RPO, while PAYC offers higher potential return but with a less stable near-term trend. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive, and any AI-driven assessment should be treated as one input among many.
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The 10-day moving average for ADP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADP as a result. In 43 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADP just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
ADP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADP advanced for three days, in 159 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
ADP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADP entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ADP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (19.983) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.853). P/E Ratio (27.727) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.446) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.075) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.020) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MANH turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where MANH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MANH as a result. In 62 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
MANH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MANH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +4.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MANH advanced for three days, in 234 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MANH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
MANH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MANH entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MANH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MANH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (88.172) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.853). P/E Ratio (67.668) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.566) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.075) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.338) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAYC turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where PAYC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PAYC as a result. In 52 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +5.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAYC advanced for three days, in 207 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAYC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
PAYC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PAYC entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PAYC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (21.656) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.853). P/E Ratio (28.965) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.167) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.075) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.549) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PAYC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ADP | MANH | PAYC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 96 Overvalued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 73 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 14 | 25 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 36 | 1 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 19 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 37 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAYC's Valuation (86) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (87) in the Data Processing Services industry, and is in the same range as MANH (96) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that PAYC's stock grew similarly to ADP’s and similarly to MANH’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as MANH (73) in the Packaged Software industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PAYC (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP's stock grew similarly to MANH’s and somewhat faster than PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
MANH's SMR Rating (14) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (17) in the Data Processing Services industry, and is in the same range as PAYC (25) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that MANH's stock grew similarly to ADP’s and similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
PAYC's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (7) in the Data Processing Services industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MANH (36) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that PAYC's stock grew similarly to ADP’s and somewhat faster than MANH’s over the last 12 months.
MANH's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as PAYC (31) in the Packaged Software industry, and is in the same range as ADP (42) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that MANH's stock grew similarly to PAYC’s and similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | MANH | PAYC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 38% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 19 days ago 68% | 26 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 73% |
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MANH’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and PAYC’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MANH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and PAYC’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а +5.28% price change this week, while MANH (@Packaged Software) price change was +7.21% , and PAYC (@Packaged Software) price fluctuated +9.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was +2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.53%.
ADP is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
MANH is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
PAYC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADP has been closely correlated with PAYX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADP jumps, then PAYX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADP | 100% | -1.23% | ||
| PAYX - ADP | 86% Closely correlated | -0.65% | ||
| PCTY - ADP | 78% Closely correlated | -0.27% | ||
| PAYC - ADP | 67% Closely correlated | +0.73% | ||
| MANH - ADP | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.64% | ||
| SSNC - ADP | 64% Loosely correlated | -7.35% | ||
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MANH has been closely correlated with BLKB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MANH jumps, then BLKB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MANH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANH | 100% | -1.64% | ||
| BLKB - MANH | 67% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| WDAY - MANH | 67% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| PCTY - MANH | 67% Closely correlated | -0.27% | ||
| FRSH - MANH | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.11% | ||
| DOCU - MANH | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.02% | ||
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAYC has been closely correlated with PAYX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAYC jumps, then PAYX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAYC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYC | 100% | +0.73% | ||
| PAYX - PAYC | 68% Closely correlated | -0.65% | ||
| GEN - PAYC | 67% Closely correlated | -0.04% | ||
| ADP - PAYC | 67% Closely correlated | -1.23% | ||
| WDAY - PAYC | 63% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| CLSK - PAYC | 62% Loosely correlated | -3.31% | ||
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