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ASML or LRCX or NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) vs. Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) vs. Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML, LRCX, and NVMI are all semiconductor equipment providers benefiting from AI-driven demand for advanced chip manufacturing.
- Recent market activity shows price pressure across the group, with LRCX and NVMI experiencing sharper single-day declines than ASML amid broader sector rotation.
- Year-to-date returns highlight LRCX leading with approximately 79% gains, followed by ASML near 64% and NVMI around 33%.
- Business models differ in scope: ASML dominates extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, LRCX focuses on etch and deposition, while NVMI specializes in process control and metrology solutions.
- Upcoming earnings, particularly LRCX’s fiscal Q4 report, and ongoing capital expenditure trends from major chipmakers remain key near-term catalysts for all three.
- Valuation sensitivity to semiconductor cycle fluctuations and geopolitical risks in supply chains affects relative positioning and investor sentiment.
Introduction
Semiconductor equipment stocks play a critical role in the global technology supply chain, particularly as artificial intelligence accelerates demand for advanced chips. ASML, LRCX, and NVMI represent distinct segments of this ecosystem, offering investors exposure to lithography, etch/deposition, and metrology technologies. This comparison is relevant for traders and investors seeking to evaluate relative performance, business model differences, and positioning within the semiconductor capital equipment sector amid evolving market conditions.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. is a leading provider of lithography systems essential for producing advanced semiconductors, including its dominant position in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology. In recent weeks, the stock has experienced volatility consistent with broader semiconductor equipment sector movements. Performance has been influenced by ongoing strength in AI-related chip demand alongside periodic adjustments in growth expectations from major customers. Market sentiment has reflected both the company’s long-term technological leadership and short-term sensitivity to order timing and macroeconomic factors affecting capital spending.
LRCX Overview and Recent Performance
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) specializes in semiconductor manufacturing equipment focused on etch and deposition processes critical for chip fabrication. Recent market activity has shown notable price fluctuations, with the stock demonstrating resilience in year-to-date gains relative to peers. Factors influencing performance include robust demand from AI chip producers and anticipated earnings results. Sentiment has been shaped by the company’s exposure to memory and logic segments, as well as broader industry capital expenditure trends from leading foundries and integrated device manufacturers.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) provides metrology and inspection solutions that enable precise process control in semiconductor manufacturing. In recent weeks, the stock has participated in sector-wide movements, with performance reflecting its specialized role in quality assurance for advanced nodes. Key influences on recent behavior include sustained investment in process technologies supporting AI and high-performance computing chips. Investor sentiment has remained tied to the company’s growth in high-value applications and its position within the overall semiconductor equipment value chain.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML maintains a technological moat in lithography that differentiates it from LRCX’s etch and deposition focus and NVMI’s metrology specialization, creating distinct exposure profiles within the same end-market. Recent momentum has favored LRCX on a year-to-date basis, while ASML and NVMI show more moderate gains amid shared sector pressures. Risk factors include cyclical capital spending patterns and supply-chain dependencies, with ASML carrying additional geopolitical considerations due to its Dutch base and export regulations. Valuation sensitivity varies, as larger-cap names like ASML and LRCX may exhibit different multiples compared to the smaller NVMI. Market sentiment across the group remains closely linked to AI infrastructure buildout and customer capex announcements.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings visibility, and relative positioning within the AI-driven semiconductor equipment cycle, Tickeron’s AI currently assigns a probabilistic preference toward LRCX for its stronger year-to-date momentum and upcoming earnings catalyst, while recognizing ASML’s foundational role and NVMI’s specialized growth niche. This assessment reflects data-driven pattern recognition rather than guarantees of future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileLRCX’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and NVMI’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- LRCX’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LRCX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and NVMI’s TA Score reflects 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LRCX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -4.82% price change this week, while LRCX (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -4.94% , and NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price fluctuated -0.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -17.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -25.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.72%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Oct 14, 2026.
LRCX is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-17.47% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| ASML | LRCX | NVMI | |
| Capitalization | 683B | 365B | 13.6B |
| EBITDA | 11.9B | 8.07B | 284M |
| Gain YTD | 55.467 | 70.677 | 30.601 |
| P/E Ratio | 57.27 | 55.12 | 53.82 |
| Revenue | 33.7B | 21.7B | 903M |
| Total Cash | 8.38B | 1.68B | 1.1B |
| Total Debt | 2.71B | 3.73B | 800M |
ASML | LRCX | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 61 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 28 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 17 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 37 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 11 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (66) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (84) and is in the same range as LRCX (87). This means that NVMI's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (26) and is in the same range as LRCX (28). This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to NVMI’s and similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's SMR Rating (17) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (19) and is in the same range as NVMI (42). This means that LRCX's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (37) and is in the same range as NVMI (59). This means that LRCX's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as LRCX (11) and is in the same range as NVMI (24). This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to LRCX’s and similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | LRCX | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 5 days ago 75% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 73% | 20 days ago 83% | 6 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 88% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 69% |
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | -5.80% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 84% Closely correlated | -4.46% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | -3.61% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | -3.40% | ||
| NVMI - ASML | 76% Closely correlated | -2.08% | ||
| ONTO - ASML | 70% Closely correlated | -3.77% | ||
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LRCX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LRCX has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LRCX jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LRCX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 100% | -4.46% | ||
| AMAT - LRCX | 89% Closely correlated | -3.61% | ||
| KLAC - LRCX | 88% Closely correlated | -3.40% | ||
| NVMI - LRCX | 84% Closely correlated | -2.08% | ||
| ASML - LRCX | 84% Closely correlated | -5.80% | ||
| RMBS - LRCX | 80% Closely correlated | +0.43% | ||
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NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | -2.08% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 84% Closely correlated | -4.46% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 80% Closely correlated | -3.61% | ||
| KLAC - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -3.40% | ||
| ASML - NVMI | 77% Closely correlated | -5.80% | ||
| CAMT - NVMI | 76% Closely correlated | +2.48% | ||
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