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ASX or ONTO or TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASE Technology (ASX) vs. Onto Innovation (ONTO) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- All three stocks—ASX, ONTO, and TSM—operate in the semiconductor sector, riding the wave of artificial intelligence (AI) demand and advanced chip packaging needs.
- ASX leads year-to-date (YTD) gains at over 97%, fueled by robust first-quarter 2026 earnings that beat expectations.
- ONTO shows strong recent momentum with a 13% weekly rise and YTD gains near 86%, ahead of its upcoming Q1 earnings expected to beat estimates.
- TSM delivers steady performance with YTD up 33%, bolstered by record Q1 profits up 58% from surging AI chip demand.
- Valuations vary: TSM trades at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34, more reasonable than ONTO's 105, while ASX stands at 49.
- Analysts rate all three as Strong Buys, with significant upside potential across price targets.
Introduction
In the booming semiconductor landscape driven by AI and advanced computing, ASX, ONTO, and TSM represent key players in packaging, metrology, and foundry services. This comparison analyzes their recent market performance, growth drivers, and positioning amid heightened demand for chip technologies. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing long-term AI exposure will find value in understanding their relative strengths, risks, and sentiment shifts in recent market activity. With sector tailwinds from AI infrastructure buildout, these stocks offer insights into diverse opportunities within semiconductors.
ASX Overview and Recent Performance
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) is a leading provider of semiconductor manufacturing services, specializing in packaging, testing, and electronic manufacturing services (EMS) across computing, communications, and automotive sectors. In recent weeks, ASX shares have surged, jumping 8% following strong first-quarter 2026 results with revenue up 17% year-over-year (YoY) and earnings per share (EPS) beating estimates. YTD gains exceed 97%, reflecting robust advanced packaging demand amid AI growth. Sentiment has shifted positively due to improved gross margins and expectations for continued strength in heterogeneous integration, though shares remain sensitive to supply chain dynamics.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) designs and manufactures process control tools for macro-defect inspection and metrology, serving semiconductor and advanced packaging fabricators. Recent market activity has seen ONTO gain over 13% in a week, with YTD performance at 86%, driven by anticipation for Q1 2026 earnings on May 5, where consensus expects an EPS beat and preliminary revenue above guidance. Key influences include traction in products like Dragonfly G5 for yield management and rising demand for advanced packaging lithography. Investor sentiment remains bullish, supported by upward guidance revisions, though high valuations pose risks in volatile markets.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, produces advanced chips for high-performance computing, smartphones, and AI applications. In recent weeks, TSM has maintained steady upward momentum, with YTD gains of 33% following record Q1 2026 profits up 58% YoY on 35% revenue growth, fueled by insatiable AI demand. Performance reflects strong margins over 50% and U.S. manufacturing investments, boosting sentiment despite geopolitical risks. Catalysts like high-NA EUV adoption continue to drive relative outperformance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASX excels in packaging and testing, contrasting TSM’s pure-play foundry model and ONTO’s metrology focus, all benefiting from AI chip complexity. Growth drivers differ: ASX leverages advanced integration, ONTO yield optimization, and TSM leading-edge nodes. Recent momentum favors ASX and ONTO, but TSM offers superior stability with massive scale. Risks include TSM’s geopolitics, ONTO’s elevated P/E sensitivity, and ASX’s cyclical exposure. Sector ties amplify AI upside, yet valuations show TSM most attractive, with sentiment strongest for all amid semis rally.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM due to its trend consistency, unmatched scale in AI wafer fabrication, and recent catalysts like record margins and U.S. expansion. While ASX and ONTO exhibit higher short-term momentum, TSM’s relative positioning offers probabilistic edge in sustained AI growth.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileONTO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TSM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASX’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and TSM’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASX’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASX (@Semiconductors) experienced а +5.02% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was +18.41% , and TSM (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +5.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +5.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.69%, and the average quarterly price growth was +93.67%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +13.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +17.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +140.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASX is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+5.97% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Production Equipment (+13.68% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| ASX | ONTO | TSM | |
| Capitalization | 82.8B | 15.9B | 1.96T |
| EBITDA | 137B | 199M | 2.99T |
| Gain YTD | 132.547 | 102.027 | 43.337 |
| P/E Ratio | 57.96 | 148.33 | 37.05 |
| Revenue | 671B | 1.03B | 4.1T |
| Total Cash | 114B | 654M | N/A |
| Total Debt | 256B | 17.5M | N/A |
ASX | ONTO | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 13 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 76 Overvalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 28 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 85 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 35 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 2 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 39 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASX's Valuation (52) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (63) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as ONTO (76) in the null industry. This means that ASX's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ASX's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (5) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as ONTO (28) in the null industry. This means that ASX's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASX (61) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (85) in the null industry. This means that TSM's stock grew somewhat faster than ASX’s and somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ASX's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ONTO (35) in the null industry, and is in the same range as TSM (38) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASX's stock grew similarly to ONTO’s and similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the null industry is in the same range as ASX (5) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as TSM (23) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ONTO's stock grew similarly to ASX’s and similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| ASX | ONTO | TSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 59% | 13 days ago 74% | about 1 month ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 72% |
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ASX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASX has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASX jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASX | 100% | +1.63% | ||
| LRCX - ASX | 75% Closely correlated | +1.38% | ||
| AMKR - ASX | 74% Closely correlated | -0.14% | ||
| KLAC - ASX | 74% Closely correlated | +0.59% | ||
| AMAT - ASX | 73% Closely correlated | +4.35% | ||
| KLIC - ASX | 73% Closely correlated | -0.74% | ||
More | ||||
TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | +1.48% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +3.54% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.38% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.59% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +4.35% | ||
| CAMT - TSM | 66% Closely correlated | -2.32% | ||
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