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AVAV or KTOS or MRCY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) vs. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) vs. Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) has delivered strong revenue growth through defense contracts, including a recent $465 million U.S. Army award, though shares have declined notably from 52-week highs amid broader market volatility in the aerospace and defense sector.
- Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) reported second-quarter revenue of $458.8 million (up 31% year-over-year) and secured additional contracts such as a $20 million Asia-Pacific SATCOM order, with shares trading well below recent peaks.
- Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) posted full-year fiscal 2026 revenue of $983.6 million (up 7.9% year-over-year) despite a net loss, with shares experiencing sharper recent pullbacks compared to longer-term gains.
- All three companies operate in the aerospace and defense industry with exposure to unmanned systems and related technologies, facing similar sector headwinds including valuation compression and execution risks on growth initiatives.
- Relative performance over recent weeks shows varying degrees of downside pressure, with differences in contract momentum and earnings trends providing points of contrast for investors evaluating positioning.
- Market sentiment across the group reflects sensitivity to defense spending cycles, supply-chain factors, and macroeconomic influences on valuations.
Introduction
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), and Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) represent publicly traded companies in the aerospace and defense sector, each with varying degrees of involvement in unmanned aerial systems, electronics, and related technologies. This comparison examines their recent business developments, stock price behavior, and relative positioning to assist traders and investors seeking to understand performance differences within a specialized industry segment. The analysis draws on verifiable market data and company disclosures to highlight contrasts in operational scale, contract activity, and recent market activity without forward-looking assumptions.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) develops unmanned aircraft systems and related technologies primarily for defense applications. In recent market activity, the stock has traded around the $144–$147 range following significant declines from 52-week highs near $418. Year-to-date performance has been negative amid sector-wide pressures, though the company reported substantial revenue expansion in fiscal 2026 driven by higher deliveries. A notable development includes a $464.8 million production contract award from the U.S. Army for laser weapon systems under the Enduring-High Energy Laser program. Earnings showed revenue growth exceeding analyst expectations alongside an EPS shortfall, with upcoming quarterly results anticipated in the near term. Sentiment has been influenced by contract wins alongside broader valuation adjustments in high-growth defense names.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) provides unmanned aerial systems, target drones, and related defense technologies. Shares have recently traded near $47–$48, down substantially from 52-week highs above $130 and reflecting a year-to-date decline. Second-quarter results showed revenue of $458.8 million, representing 31% year-over-year growth, with EPS and net income both improving. Recent contract activity includes a multi-million-dollar award for mobile satellite communication gateways in the Asia-Pacific region. Performance over recent weeks has featured volatility consistent with peer movements, supported by backlog contributions and segment-specific organic growth. Market positioning reflects exposure to lower-cost unmanned platforms amid ongoing defense procurement trends.
MRCY Overview and Recent Performance
Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) supplies embedded computing and electronic systems for aerospace and defense applications. The stock has recently traded in the low $80s following declines from 52-week highs near $128, though year-to-date returns remain positive. Full-year fiscal 2026 results indicated revenue of $983.6 million, up 7.9% from the prior year, with the net loss narrowing. Quarterly revenue in the most recent period exceeded analyst estimates despite an EPS miss. Recent weeks have shown continued price pressure aligned with sector rotation, with market capitalization around $5 billion. Operational focus on secure processing solutions positions the company within established defense electronics supply chains.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models differ in emphasis: AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) centers on tactical unmanned systems and loitering munitions with recent diversification into directed energy; Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) focuses on high-performance jet-powered unmanned platforms and target systems; Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) specializes in embedded electronics and secure computing solutions serving broader platform integrators. Growth drivers include contract awards tied to defense modernization, though each faces distinct execution variables such as integration of acquisitions or margin pressures. Recent momentum shows all three experiencing downside moves over the past month, with differences in the magnitude of drawdowns from peaks. Risk factors encompass sector cyclicality, supply-chain dependencies, and sensitivity to government budget timelines. Valuation multiples reflect varying profitability profiles, with growth-oriented names displaying higher sensitivity to earnings variability. Market sentiment remains tied to observable order flow and macroeconomic influences on defense equities.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including contract momentum, revenue trajectory consistency, and relative stability in positioning within the unmanned systems segment, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) among the three. This assessment considers recent earnings beats, backlog visibility, and sector-specific demand alignment, while acknowledging that all names operate in a volatile environment subject to external catalysts. Such evaluations remain probabilistic and do not constitute investment recommendations.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
| AVAV | KTOS | MRCY | |
| Capitalization | 8.13B | 8.91B | 5.19B |
| EBITDA | -10.79M | 116M | 73.4M |
| Gain YTD | -33.875 | -37.479 | 16.806 |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 279.18 | 714.29 |
| Revenue | 2B | 1.52B | 984M |
| Total Cash | 580M | 1.44B | 214M |
| Total Debt | 851M | 194M | 488M |
AVAV | KTOS | MRCY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | 98 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 80 | 55 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 89 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 74 | 84 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 97 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AVAV's Valuation (80) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (88) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as MRCY (98) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that AVAV's stock grew similarly to KTOS’s and similarly to MRCY’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as KTOS (80) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as AVAV (83) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY's stock grew similarly to KTOS’s and similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's SMR Rating (89) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as MRCY (91) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry, and is in the same range as AVAV (92) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that KTOS's stock grew similarly to MRCY’s and similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's Price Growth Rating (62) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as AVAV (74) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as KTOS (84) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY's stock grew similarly to AVAV’s and similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as AVAV (9) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KTOS (97) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY's stock grew similarly to AVAV’s and significantly faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | KTOS | MRCY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 81% | 6 days ago 80% | 5 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 72% | 19 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while KTOS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and MRCY’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KTOS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MRCY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KTOS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and MRCY’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- KTOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MRCY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +9.02% price change this week, while KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +1.65% , and MRCY (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +5.79% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -1.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Dec 08, 2026.
KTOS is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
MRCY is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-1.22% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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AVAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been closely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | -2.10% | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 70% Closely correlated | -0.42% | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.04% | ||
| RCAT - AVAV | 53% Loosely correlated | -4.86% | ||
| KRMN - AVAV | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| VOYG - AVAV | 50% Loosely correlated | -1.99% | ||
More | ||||
KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been closely correlated with AVAV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then AVAV could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | -0.42% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 70% Closely correlated | -2.10% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.04% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 61% Loosely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| RCAT - KTOS | 61% Loosely correlated | -4.86% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.35% | ||
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MRCY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRCY has been loosely correlated with BWXT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MRCY jumps, then BWXT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRCY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 100% | -1.04% | ||
| BWXT - MRCY | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.80% | ||
| KTOS - MRCY | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.42% | ||
| CW - MRCY | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.14% | ||
| DRS - MRCY | 60% Loosely correlated | +0.35% | ||
| AVAV - MRCY | 55% Loosely correlated | -2.10% | ||
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