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BJ or COST or WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) vs. Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Walmart (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Three distinct plays on American retail: BJ is a regional warehouse-club growth story, COST is a premium-multiple membership leader, and WMT is the diversified, dividend-paying scale incumbent.
- Valuation diverges sharply: BJ trades near 21 times earnings, WMT near 43 times, and COST near 48 times trailing earnings.
- Scale gap is enormous: market capitalizations range from roughly $12 billion (BJ) to about $441 billion (COST) and approximately $942 billion (WMT).
- Growth and profitability: COST and WMT offer steadier, larger revenue bases, while BJ carries the fastest unit-expansion narrative relative to its size.
- Income profile differs: WMT and COST pay dividends, while BJ reinvests capital into new clubs rather than returning cash to shareholders.
Introduction
Warehouse clubs and big-box retailers occupy a defensive corner of the consumer staples sector, appealing to traders and investors seeking relative stability through economic uncertainty. This stock comparison examines three names that sit at different points on that spectrum: BJ, a fast-growing regional membership club; COST, the premium-priced membership model leader; and WMT, the world's largest retailer by revenue. Comparing them clarifies how relative performance, market positioning, and valuation sensitivity differ across scale and growth profiles, helping readers weigh trade-offs between expansion momentum, margin quality, and balance-sheet durability.
BJ Overview and Recent Performance
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings operates roughly 260 membership warehouse clubs concentrated in the eastern United States, with an expanding footprint that now includes newer markets such as Texas. In recent weeks, the stock has drawn attention for its unit-growth story: management has outlined plans to open 12 new clubs in the current fiscal year and flagged a potential acceleration toward 25 to 30 openings in 2027 and 2028. Recent market activity has been constructive, with shares trading near 52-week highs and analysts maintaining a consensus Buy rating and an average price target around $105.
Sentiment has been shaped by a mix of positive membership economics and caution. Renewal momentum and digital gains support the narrative, while softer comparable sales, holiday margin sensitivity, and one-time benefits such as tariff refunds and fuel profits have tempered the outlook. Relative performance has been solid year-to-date, though the stock's premium-to-peers valuation leaves a thinner margin for error.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
COST Wholesale is a global membership warehouse operator with 939 locations across North America, Asia, and Europe. Its fiscal 2026 revenue reached approximately $303 billion, up about 10% year over year, supported by strong membership renewal rates above 90% in the U.S. and Canada. Recent weeks have brought accelerating momentum: September net sales rose 13% and adjusted comparable sales accelerated to 7.6%, the fastest pace in several months.
The stock has recovered toward its prior highs after a mid-year drawdown and remains up double digits on a year-to-date basis. Investors weigh robust traffic, digital growth exceeding 20%, and record executive-member penetration against a stretched valuation near 48 times trailing earnings. Analysts hold a consensus Buy rating, though some firms have trimmed targets, citing a high multiple and decelerating paid-member growth, while others have raised targets on accelerating sales.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
WMT is the world's largest retailer by revenue, operating through Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club segments, with trailing twelve-month sales of roughly $736 billion. Its diversified model spans supercenters, membership clubs, and a fast-growing e-commerce business. In recent market activity, the stock has posted a modest year-to-date gain, lagging some peers, while delivering resilient quarterly results with consistent earnings beats and double-digit growth in e-commerce and higher-margin businesses such as advertising and memberships.
Sentiment has been influenced by consumer value-seeking behavior and inflation, which generally support Walmart's low-price positioning, offset by pressure from elevated fuel costs and a competitive grocery landscape. The company recently introduced a bundled Walmart+ and Sam's Club membership and has signaled record capital spending ahead. With a dividend yield near 0.8% and a consensus Buy rating, it offers an income component absent at BJ.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The three companies differ most in business model breadth and geography. WMT is a diversified global operator spanning grocery, general merchandise, and a large international division; COST is a focused, high-membership-loyalty warehouse model with meaningful international exposure; BJ is a concentrated, domestic, East-Coast-heavy growth operator.
Growth drivers also contrast. BJ's thesis rests on new-club expansion and membership economics; COST relies on comparable-sales momentum, digital scale, and ancillary businesses such as gas and pharmacy; WMT leans on e-commerce, advertising, and membership income. In risk terms, BJ carries execution and concentration risk, COST faces valuation-sensitivity and slowing member growth, and WMT contends with thin retail margins and fuel-cost pressures. On market sentiment, COST enjoys the strongest sales momentum, BJ the most visible unit-growth catalyst, and WMT the deepest diversification and defensive income profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor COST as the most balanced candidate among the three. Its recent acceleration in comparable sales, best-in-class membership renewal rates, and recovering technical trend offer a combination of momentum and durability that BJ (stronger growth but higher concentration and execution risk) and WMT (greater scale but slower recent momentum) do not fully match. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: valuation sensitivity remains a meaningful consideration for COST, and any reversal in sales momentum or membership trends could shift the relative ranking. This analysis reflects current conditions and is not presented as investment advice.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
BJ's RSI Oscillator is remaining in overbought zone for 1 day
Watch for a price pull-back in the near future.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BJ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
BJ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BJ as a result. In 58 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BJ just turned positive on September 25, 2026. Looking at past instances where BJ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
BJ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BJ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The 50-day moving average for BJ moved above the 200-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +4.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BJ advanced for three days, in 176 of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 158 of 224 cases where BJ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BJ’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.084) is normal, around the industry mean (5.628). P/E Ratio (23.009) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.925). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.251) is also within normal values, averaging (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. BJ's P/S Ratio (0.530) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.008).
COST in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026
The 10-day moving average for COST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 25, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on COST as a result. In 50 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for COST just turned positive on September 25, 2026. Looking at past instances where COST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
COST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COST advanced for three days, in 214 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 173 of 336 cases where COST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
COST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. COST’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: COST's P/B Ratio (13.272) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.628). COST has a moderately high P/E Ratio (50.393) as compared to the industry average of (23.925). COST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.478) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.353) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
WMT's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WMT turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where WMT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WMT as a result. In 45 of 74 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
WMT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WMT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +2.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WMT advanced for three days, in 210 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 183 of 359 cases where WMT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 37%.
WMT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WMT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: WMT's P/B Ratio (9.682) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.628). WMT has a moderately high P/E Ratio (43.282) as compared to the industry average of (23.925). WMT's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.175) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.169) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
BJ | COST | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 12 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 34 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 44 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 43 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BJ's Valuation (90) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (100) and is in the same range as WMT (100). This means that BJ's stock grew similarly to COST’s and similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (14) and is in the same range as BJ (35). This means that COST's stock grew similarly to WMT’s and similarly to BJ’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (34) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as BJ (35) and is in the same range as WMT (42). This means that COST's stock grew similarly to BJ’s and similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
BJ's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (44) and is in the same range as WMT (45). This means that BJ's stock grew similarly to COST’s and similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
BJ's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (31) and is in the same range as COST (43). This means that BJ's stock grew similarly to WMT’s and similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
| BJ | COST | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 41% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 61% | 10 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 49% | N/A | 5 days ago 37% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 35% | 3 days ago 38% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 51% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BJ’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while COST’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- BJ’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- COST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BJ’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while COST’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BJ’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- COST’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BJ (@Discount Stores) experienced а +2.81% price change this week, while COST (@Discount Stores) price change was +1.44% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +0.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
BJ is expected to report earnings on Nov 20, 2026.
COST is expected to report earnings on Dec 10, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on Nov 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+0.01% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
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BJ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BJ has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BJ jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
WMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMT has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WMT jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100% | -1.02% | ||
| COST - WMT | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.46% | ||
| DG - WMT | 34% Loosely correlated | -4.62% | ||
| PSMT - WMT | 34% Loosely correlated | -0.37% | ||
| TGT - WMT | 28% Poorly correlated | -3.38% | ||
| DLTR - WMT | 27% Poorly correlated | -4.37% | ||
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