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CTVA or MOS or NTR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) vs. The Mosaic Company (MOS) vs. Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CTVA leads year-to-date performance with approximately 21% gains, supported by strong Q1 2026 results showing 11% net sales growth and reaffirmed full-year guidance.
- MOS lags peers, down about 8% YTD amid elevated input costs like sulfur and weak U.S. demand, with shares near 52-week lows around $22.
- NTR shows solid momentum with 11-21% YTD returns (varying by exchange), driven by record Q1 potash volumes and higher nitrogen prices.
- Valuation contrasts: CTVA trades at a premium P/E over 40x, while MOS and NTR hover around 13x, reflecting fertilizer cyclicality versus seed stability.
- All three benefit from rising fertilizer prices due to global supply tensions, but CTVA's planned corporate separation adds a unique catalyst.
- Market caps differ sharply: CTVA at $54B, NTR at $33B, MOS at $7B.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines CTVA, MOS, and NTR, key players in the agriculture sector spanning seeds, crop protection, and fertilizers. These companies are interconnected through the crop nutrient and input supply chain, making them relevant for investors tracking agribusiness amid volatile commodity prices and global food demand. Traders focused on relative performance may find value in their differing exposures to weather, geopolitics, and input costs, while long-term investors assess growth from innovation and efficiency gains. Recent market activity highlights contrasts in momentum and sentiment within this essential industry.
CTVA Overview and Recent Performance
Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) is a pure-play agriculture company specializing in seeds and crop protection products, operating through Seed and Crop Protection segments. Headquartered in Indianapolis, it provides advanced germplasm, traits, herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides to farmers worldwide. In recent market activity, shares have traded around $81, up over 20% year-to-date and 30% over the past year, reflecting resilience within a 52-week range of $60 to $86. Strong Q1 2026 results drove sentiment, with net sales of $4.9 billion (up 11% year-over-year) and operating EBITDA rising 21%, fueled by seed demand and cost efficiencies. The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance for $4.0-4.2 billion operating EBITDA and remains on track for a Q4 corporate separation into two entities, enhancing focus and potentially unlocking value. Elevated fertilizer prices indirectly support crop protection needs, though weather risks and high valuations temper gains.
MOS Overview and Recent Performance
The Mosaic Company (MOS) produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients via Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes segments, with operations in the U.S., Canada, and Brazil. It focuses on mining and processing essential fertilizers like diammonium phosphate and potash for global agriculture. Recent weeks have seen shares near $22, down roughly 8% year-to-date and 30% over the past year, hitting 52-week lows amid a range of $22 to $38. Headwinds include elevated sulfur costs, supply disruptions, and soft U.S. demand, projecting Q1 EBITDA pressure. Full-year 2025 net income was $541 million, with cost savings ahead of targets at $150 million. Anticipation builds for Q1 earnings on May 11, with analysts cautious on EPS at $0.20 amid sector cyclicality. Rising global nutrient prices offer upside, but operational challenges have weighed on sentiment.
NTR Overview and Recent Performance
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is a leading provider of crop inputs and services, spanning Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate segments, with a global network of production and distribution. As the top potash producer, it supplies nutrients, seeds, and agronomic solutions. Shares have traded around $68, delivering 11-21% year-to-date gains and up 20-35% annually, within a 52-week range of $53 to $85. Q1 2026 results boosted momentum, with net earnings of $139 million, record potash volumes of 3.51 million tons, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.11 billion, aided by higher nitrogen and phosphate prices. The company flagged tighter nitrogen supplies ahead. Steady Retail performance and share buybacks support positioning, though post-earnings dips reflect EPS misses. Geopolitical tensions elevating fertilizer costs favor its scale.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CTVA, MOS, and NTR operate in complementary ag subsectors: CTVA emphasizes stable seed and protection innovation, while MOS and NTR focus on cyclical fertilizers (phosphate/potash). Growth drivers diverge—CTVA via its planned split and R&D, versus volume/pricing for nutrient peers amid supply tightness. Recent momentum favors CTVA and NTR over MOS, which faces cost pressures. Risks include commodity volatility and weather for all, but MOS/NTR amplify cyclical exposure. Sector ties to global food demand persist, yet CTVA shows lower beta (0.6). Valuation sensitivity: CTVA's 40x+ P/E reflects premium stability; peers' 13x suggest value if demand rebounds. Sentiment leans positive on nutrient tailwinds, with NTR's retail buffering downturns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors CTVA for its trend consistency, Q1 beat, reaffirmed guidance, and separation catalyst, positioning it strongly amid rising input costs. While NTR offers scale and potash leadership with solid volumes, and MOS trades at a discount, CTVA exhibits higher probability of near-term outperformance based on momentum, lower relative volatility, and observable stability.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CTVA’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMOS’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and NTR’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- CTVA’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MOS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NTR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CTVA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MOS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and NTR’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CTVA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NTR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CTVA (@Chemicals: Agricultural) experienced а -3.36% price change this week, while MOS (@Chemicals: Agricultural) price change was -7.90% , and NTR (@Chemicals: Agricultural) price fluctuated -4.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Agricultural industry was -3.48%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
CTVA is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
MOS is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
NTR is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Agricultural (-3.48% weekly)The agricultural chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemical products for the agricultural industry applications like crop protection, animal health, biotechnology and pharmaceutical-related products. Some of the largest agricultural chemicals producers include Nutrien Ltd., Corteva Inc., and FMC Corporation.
| CTVA | MOS | NTR | |
| Capitalization | 50.1B | 6.7B | 31.5B |
| EBITDA | 3.15B | 1.99B | 6.32B |
| Gain YTD | 12.191 | -10.818 | 6.990 |
| P/E Ratio | 40.46 | 150.64 | 13.35 |
| Revenue | 17.9B | 12.4B | 27.8B |
| Total Cash | 1.97B | 282M | 777M |
| Total Debt | 3.36B | 5.76B | 13.9B |
CTVA | MOS | NTR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 52 | 66 | 69 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 46 Fair valued | 16 Undervalued | 18 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 100 | 82 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 87 | 91 | 73 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 65 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 3 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 47 | 49 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MOS's Valuation (16) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as NTR (18) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry, and is in the same range as CTVA (46) in the null industry. This means that MOS's stock grew similarly to NTR’s and similarly to CTVA’s over the last 12 months.
CTVA's Profit vs Risk Rating (36) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NTR (82) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MOS (100) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry. This means that CTVA's stock grew somewhat faster than NTR’s and somewhat faster than MOS’s over the last 12 months.
NTR's SMR Rating (73) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as CTVA (87) in the null industry, and is in the same range as MOS (91) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry. This means that NTR's stock grew similarly to CTVA’s and similarly to MOS’s over the last 12 months.
CTVA's Price Growth Rating (58) in the null industry is in the same range as NTR (61) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry, and is in the same range as MOS (65) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry. This means that CTVA's stock grew similarly to NTR’s and similarly to MOS’s over the last 12 months.
MOS's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CTVA (59) in the null industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for NTR (99) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry. This means that MOS's stock grew somewhat faster than CTVA’s and significantly faster than NTR’s over the last 12 months.
| CTVA | MOS | NTR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 73% | 4 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 60% | 15 days ago 74% | 8 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 72% |
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CTVA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CTVA has been loosely correlated with NTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CTVA jumps, then NTR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CTVA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVA | 100% | +0.54% | ||
| NTR - CTVA | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.82% | ||
| MOS - CTVA | 43% Loosely correlated | +6.41% | ||
| IPI - CTVA | 38% Loosely correlated | +1.66% | ||
| FMC - CTVA | 37% Loosely correlated | +4.35% | ||
| CF - CTVA | 36% Loosely correlated | -2.47% | ||
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