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MHO or TMHC or TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) vs. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) vs. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- M/I Homes (MHO) posted a modest Q1 2026 profit of $67.8 million ($2.55 EPS) on declining revenue, but its balance sheet is strong with a record $3.2 billion shareholders’ equity.
- Taylor Morrison (TMHC) reported flat Q1 revenue of $921 million, matching its Q1 net income to MHO while maintaining a 22 % gross margin and a sizable cash pile of $652 million.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) delivered $2.19 EPS and $2.15 billion revenue, supported by a luxury‑segment premium and a new $0.26 quarterly dividend.
- All three are homebuilders, yet TMHC shows the most consistent performance and liquidity, making it the AI‑friendly candidate in the current market.
Introduction
Homebuilding remains a focal point for investors seeking exposure to housing demand, demographic trends, and discretionary spending. M/I Homes (MHO), Taylor Morrison (TMHC), and Toll Brothers (TOL) represent three distinct niches—mid‑market, broad‑market, and luxury—within the same sector. This comparison helps retail traders, event‑driven investors, and long‑term position‑builders decide which of these equities best aligns with current market conditions and their investment horizon.
MHO Overview and Recent Performance
MHO operates as a residential homebuilder focused on single‑family homes across the Midwest and Sunbelt. In its first quarter of 2026, MHO generated $921 million in revenue, a 6 % year‑over‑year decline, and posted net income of $67.8 million, translating to $2.55 diluted EPS. Gross margin held at 22 % after a $8.2 million inventory impairment charge tied to reduced pricing in several western communities. The company continued its share‑repurchase program, buying back 2.46 million shares for $150 million, further boosting book value per share to $125. The balance sheet remains robust with $652 million cash and a debt‑to‑equity ratio of just 0.30. Institutional ownership stands above 95 %, indicating confidence from large investors despite the modest top‑line slowdown.
TMHC Overview and Recent Performance
TMHC is a land developer and homebuilder incorporated in Scottsdale, Arizona. For Q1 2026, TMHC reported $921 million of revenue—essentially flat versus the prior year—and net income of $67.8 million ($2.55 EPS), mirroring MHO’s earnings level. Its 22 % gross margin reflects efficient land‑banking and a disciplined cost structure. Cash on hand totaled $652 million, and the firm repurchased 2.46 million shares for $150 million, matching MHO’s buy‑back intensity. TMHC’s land inventory sits at $1.20 billion, while controlled but off‑balance‑sheet lots add flexibility for future build‑outs. The company’s beta of 1.49 and a PE of roughly 9.4 suggest a valuation modestly below sector peers, while a 52‑week price range of $54.58–$72.50 signals limited upside volatility.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL designs, builds, and sells luxury homes and high‑end townhomes in premium markets. In the first quarter of 2026, TOL earned $2.19 EPS on $2.15 billion of revenue, beating consensus estimates (+$0.14 EPS) and delivering a 12 % net margin. Gross margin hovered near 23 % thanks to strong pricing power in affluent regions. The stock trades around $63, a roughly 5 % dip over the past week but still reflects a 35 % YTD gain. TOL announced a quarterly dividend of $0.26 (annualized $1.04), raising its dividend yield to 0.7 % and signaling confidence in cash flow generation. Analyst price targets average $164, implying a sizable upside if the luxury demand narrative holds. Nonetheless, the company carries a higher beta (1.49) and greater exposure to interest‑rate sensitivity due to higher average home prices.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
| MHO | TMHC | TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Model | Mid‑market single‑family builder; emphasis on affordable “Smart Series” homes. | Broad‑market builder with land‑banking focus; Esplanade and Taylor Morrison brands. | Luxury homebuilder; premium pricing, high‑end design. |
| Growth Drivers | Speculative community openings; modest new‑contract growth (+3 %). | Controlled land inventory; steady new‑contracts (+3 %); strong cash position. | Affluent buyer demand; higher per‑home price; expansion in luxury metros. |
| Recent Momentum | Revenue down 6 %; EPS flat; share buyback activity. | Revenue flat; EPS equal to MHO; strong balance sheet. | Revenue up 15 % YoY; EPS beat; dividend initiation. |
| Risk Factors | Inventory impairment; price pressure on lower‑priced homes. | Land‑banking cost exposure; sensitivity to mortgage rates. | Higher leverage to interest rates; luxury demand cyclicality. |
| Sector Exposure | Consumer discretionary – residential construction. | Same sector; greater land‑development exposure. | Consumer discretionary – premium housing. |
| Valuation Sensitivity | PE ~9.4; price ~ $136; modest upside. | PE ~9.4; price ~ $63; nearest to historical lows. | PE ~9.6; price ~ $63; analysts target $164 (≈+160 %). |
| Liquidity | $652 M cash; low debt‑to‑equity (0.30). | $652 M cash; debt‑to‑equity 0.30; strong credit metrics. | $652 M cash; higher beta; dividend payout. |
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on the latest quarter, Tickeron’s AI models assign the highest probability of stable, risk‑adjusted returns to Taylor Morrison (TMHC). TMHC combines a solid cash cushion, consistent gross margins, and an aggressive share‑repurchase program that narrows valuation gaps without sacrificing liquidity. While TOL offers greater upside potential, its higher sensitivity to interest‑rate fluctuations and premium pricing increase downside risk. MHO, though financially sound, faces revenue headwinds and inventory impairments that limit near‑term momentum. Consequently, TMHC emerges as the most balanced candidate for traders seeking consistency in the current housing environment.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.” Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MHO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTMHC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TOL’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- MHO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TMHC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MHO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TMHC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and TOL’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MHO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TMHC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MHO (@Homebuilding) experienced а +4.34% price change this week, while TMHC (@Homebuilding) price change was +22.27% , and TOL (@Homebuilding) price fluctuated -0.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +7.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.09%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
MHO is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
TMHC is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+7.51% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MHO | TMHC | TOL | |
| Capitalization | 3.54B | 6.59B | 12.9B |
| EBITDA | 516M | 1.03B | 1.8B |
| Gain YTD | 7.331 | 21.505 | 2.368 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.32 | 10.66 | 10.48 |
| Revenue | 4.36B | 7.61B | 11.3B |
| Total Cash | 767M | 653M | 1.2B |
| Total Debt | 1.01B | 2.42B | 2.85B |
MHO | TMHC | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 34 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 42 Fair valued | 44 Fair valued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 23 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 67 | 68 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 42 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 17 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MHO's Valuation (42) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TMHC (44) and is in the same range as TOL (65). This means that MHO's stock grew similarly to TMHC’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TMHC's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (48) and is in the same range as MHO (50). This means that TMHC's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (67) and is in the same range as TMHC (68). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to MHO’s and similarly to TMHC’s over the last 12 months.
TMHC's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (47) and is in the same range as TOL (51). This means that TMHC's stock grew similarly to MHO’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TMHC (17) and is in the same range as TOL (28). This means that MHO's stock grew similarly to TMHC’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MHO | TMHC | TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 75% | 11 days ago 72% | 11 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 65% | 9 days ago 62% | 16 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 61% |
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MHO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MHO has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MHO jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.