Alibaba (BABA, $175.57) reports estimate-smashing fourth quarter results
Chinese tech giant Alibaba clocked an impressive fourth quarter, despite the ongoing US-Sino trade war, with revenue rising 51% to $13.9 billion beating estimate of $13.3 billion. The number of active customers reached 654 million, rising 18 million from the previous quarter and 102 million from the same period a year ago.
The main driver for this growth was e-commerce businesses made up of Taobao marketplace and Tmall. The core commerce revenue of the company rose 54% to $11.8 billion during the period, as the company continued to penetrate across the less developed cities and acquire new customers.
Owing to the increase in average spending per customer, Alibaba Cloud business emerged as a strong revenue generator as the cloud computing segment saw its revenue jump 76% to $1.15 billion.
However, operating income fell 5% during the quarter owing to $250 million lawsuit settlement in the U.S. and spending to consolidate Ele.me as well as increased inventory and logistics expenses at its new retail and direct sales businesses. However, investment income came at $2.8 billion during the said quarter offsetting that drop in operating income. As a result, adjusted earnings per share increased 50% to $1.28 beating expectations of $0.93.
By 2020, the company plans to grow its revenue by 32.7% to 500 billion RMB, or $74.5 billion, apparently unperturbed by the recently escalated U.S.-China trade war. The company confirmed negotiations to amend trade imbalance as well as addressing infringements on intellectual property rights. These will encourage more imports from outside of China.
BABA sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On June 25, 2025, the Stochastic Oscillator for BABA moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 57 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BABA advanced for three days, in of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 148 cases where BABA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 18, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BABA as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BABA turned negative on June 13, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
BABA moved below its 50-day moving average on June 12, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BABA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 18, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BABA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BABA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.922) is normal, around the industry mean (4.256). P/E Ratio (15.177) is within average values for comparable stocks, (50.154). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.904) is also within normal values, averaging (1.431). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.090) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.972) is also within normal values, averaging (6.540).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BABA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an online and mobile commerce company
Industry InternetRetail
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