American Airlines beat on its EPS estimates, but could be hitting resistance
American Airlines (NYSE: AAL) reported earnings on October 24 and the company beat on the top line, but missed on the bottom line. Analysts expected the company to report earnings per share of $1.38 and the actual number was $1.42. The company came up a little short on its revenue estimate, reporting $11.01 billion and the estimate was for $11.94 billion. The company cited low fuel costs as one reason for the earnings growth. The stock jumped 3.96% after the report.
Despite the optimistic report, the stock could face some headwinds in the coming weeks as there is potential resistance from two different sources just overhead. First, the stock has been trending lower over the last year and a trend channel has formed to define the different cycles over the past year. The upper rail of the channel is right at the $30 mark.
The second potential source of resistance is the 52-week moving average which is at $31.80 currently. The stock hasn’t closed above the trend line since March 2018.
In addition to the potential resistance, the daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory and have been for nine days now. There was also a bearish signal generated by the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine on October 23. The signal showed a confidence level of 83% and past predictions have been successful 78% of the time. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month.
From a fundamental perspective, American Airlines has struggled in recent years. The company has seen earnings decline by 15% per year over the last three years while sales have increased by only 5%. It also has a low profit margin at 6.3%.
Looking at Tickeron’s Fundamental Analysis Overview, the PE Growth Rating is 72 and that points to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for American Airlines is 83, indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AAL’s price has grown at a lower rate over the last 12 months compared to S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 points to highest price growth (largest percent return) while a rating of 100 points to lowest price growth (smallest percent return).
Finally, the Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for American is 100, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. Unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within the last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
Sentiment toward American Airlines is a little more pessimistic than the average stock, but that is to be expected when a stock has been trending lower and when the company has seen earnings decline. There are 21 analysts covering the stock at this time with 11 “buy” ratings, eight “hold” ratings, and two “sell” ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 52.4%, below the average range of 65% to 75%.
The short interest ratio is 3.7 currently and that is slightly higher than the average around the 3.0 mark. The number of shares sold short did jump by 1.75 million in the most recent reporting period.
AAL's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for AAL moved out of oversold territory on October 02, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 40 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAL as a result. In of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL just turned positive on October 08, 2025. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 287 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 60 cases where AAL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AAL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AAL entered a downward trend on October 09, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (3.003). P/E Ratio (14.119) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.046). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.233) is also within normal values, averaging (10.344). AAL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (0.151) is also within normal values, averaging (0.602).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo
Industry Airlines
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