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Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
published in Blogs
May 10, 2019

American Airlines hitting downward sloped trend line and receives a bearish signal

Over the last few days, I have received several bullish signals on oil and oil companies. I even wrote about Devon Energy yesterday and the bullish signs it was showing. In somewhat of paired possibility, There are bearish signs surfacing on American Airlines (Nasdaq: AAL).

If we look at the daily chart, the stock has been trending lower since last September. Connecting the highs from September and December creates a trend line and the stock has just brushed up against this trend line in the last few days.

The stochastic readings had barely moved in to overbought territory in the last few days, but a couple of down days caused the indicators to move out of overbought territory and make a bearish crossover.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bearish signal for American on May 7 and the signal shows a confidence level of 69%. The signal calls for a decline in the stock of at least 4% within the next month. Previous predictions on American have been successful 71% of the time.

I hate to be blunt, but the fundamentals for American aren’t very good. The company has seen earnings decline by an average of 18% per year over the last three years and they were down 30% in the most recent quarter—that’s on a year over year basis. Sales have only grown at a rate of 4% per year over the last three years and the profit margin is a paltry 6.3%.

Related Ticker: AAL

AAL's MACD Histogram just turned positive

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL turned positive on February 23, 2024. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 22, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAL as a result. In of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 50-day moving average for AAL moved above the 200-day moving average on February 29, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 27, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (103.843). P/E Ratio (12.934) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.597). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.323) is also within normal values, averaging (0.714). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.213) is also within normal values, averaging (0.965).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV), United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL), JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ:JBLU).

Industry description

Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Airlines Industry is 6.67B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 9.36K to 27.19B. DAL holds the highest valuation in this group at 27.19B. The lowest valued company is KLMR at 9.36K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 6%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6%. AIABF experienced the highest price growth at 50%, while ATSG experienced the biggest fall at -13%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was -45%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -64% and the average quarterly volume growth was -28%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 64
P/E Growth Rating: 65
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 91
Seasonality Score: -18 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
AALDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo

Industry Airlines

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Airlines
Address
1 Skyview Drive
Phone
+1 682 278-9000
Employees
132100
Web
https://www.americanairlines.in
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AAL and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAL has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AAL jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To AAL
1D Price
Change %
AAL100%
+0.06%
DAL - AAL
82%
Closely correlated
-0.25%
UAL - AAL
82%
Closely correlated
-1.36%
LUV - AAL
61%
Loosely correlated
-0.90%
ALK - AAL
60%
Loosely correlated
-1.06%
ULCC - AAL
60%
Loosely correlated
-0.72%
More
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