American Express oversold and looking to bounce
Credit card issuer and processor American Express (NYSE: AXP) has performed very well in recent years in terms of its fundamental statistics. The company has seen earnings grow by an average of 18% per year over the last three years and it saw 13% growth in its EPS in the second quarter. Sales have grown by 11% per year in the last three years and they were up 9% in the second quarter.
The company boasts a return on equity of 31.7%, a profit margin of 18.8%, and an operating margin of 21.3%.
Looking at some valuation indicators from the Tickeron fundamental analysis overview, we see a price to book ratio of 4.35 and a P/E ratio of 14.96. The price to book ratio is slightly above the P/B ratio of the S&P 500 while the P/E ratio is below the current P/E of the S&P.
The stock has fallen over the last few weeks and it dropped below its 50-day moving average for the first time since January as a result. You can see that a trend channel has formed on the stock that goes back to the low in December. This particular channel is formed more by the upper rail connecting the highs from each month and the parallel lower rail connects the December low with the low from August 5.
The 10-day RSI hit oversold territory this week and the daily stochastic readings also reached oversold territory. The stochastic readings made a bullish crossover on August 6 and past crossovers have been good bullish signs for the stock.
In addition to the oversold levels on the RSI and stochastic readings, we see the following from Tickeron’s technical analysis overview.
The lower Bollinger Band was broken -- a price increase is expected as the stock heads toward the middle band, which indicates a buy or call consideration for traders. In 26 of 42 cases where AXP's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
The sentiment toward American Express was a little surprising, specifically the analysts’ ratings weren’t as bullish as I would have expected given the solid fundamentals for the company. There are 31 analysts following the stock currently and there are 14 “buy” ratings, 16 “hold” ratings, and one “sell” rating. The overall buy percentage is only 45.2% and that is well below average.
The short interest ratio is a little lower than average at this time with a current reading of 1.8. The average short interest ratio is in the 3.0 range so the bullish sentiment is a little greater in this category.
Something to remember about the sentiment indicators is that they are best used as contrarian indicators. Extreme bullish sentiment isn’t something you want on a stock as it means the expectations are really high. Conversely, extreme bearish sentiment can help a stock if the company is producing good earnings results. The sentiment toward American Express isn’t extremely bearish, but the analysts’ ratings are definitely skewed toward the bearish side.
Given the solid fundamentals, the oversold levels on the chart, and the bearishly skewed sentiment, look for American Express to bounce in the coming weeks.
AXP sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
AXP saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 13, 2025. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AXP moved out of overbought territory on November 13, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 14, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AXP as a result. In of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AXP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 52 cases where AXP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
AXP moved above its 50-day moving average on November 21, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AXP advanced for three days, in of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AXP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 287 cases where AXP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AXP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.496) is normal, around the industry mean (12.250). P/E Ratio (23.700) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.536). AXP's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.054) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.349). AXP has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.009) as compared to the industry average of (0.041). P/S Ratio (3.505) is also within normal values, averaging (128.616).
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General Information
a financial conglomerate
Industry SavingsBanks
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