American International Group runs into resistance at its 104-week moving average
After rallying almost 50% from its December low, American International Group (NYSE: AIG) seems to have hit resistance at its 104-week moving average. Looking at the weekly chart we see how the stock moved sharply higher in the last month but turned lower in the past week after hitting the trend line. The stock found support at the 104-week in 2017 but then dropped below it in early 2018.
It may seem a little unorthodox to use a 104-week moving average, but I use it with a 13-week and a 52-week to get moving averages for one quarter, one year, and two years.
We see that the stock was tremendously overbought based on the 10-week RSI and according to the weekly stochastic readings.
Looking at the Tickeron overview for AIG, we see there are a couple of technical factors that are also indicating that a move lower is likely. The weekly MACD crossed below the signal line and in 39 of 50 previous instances, the downward trend continued.
We also see that the momentum indicator turned negative on May 31. In 60 of 81 previous instances where this occurred, the price of the stock fell further.
The fundamentals for AIG leave something to be desired. The earnings have been flat over the last three years while sales have declined at a rate of 5% per year during the same timeframe. The return on equity is a paltry 1.8% and the profit margin is only 3.0%.
Aroon Indicator for AIG shows an upward move is likely
AIG's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on May 15, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 358 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 358 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for AIG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 12, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AIG advanced for three days, in of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 23, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AIG as a result. In of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AIG turned negative on May 23, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 55 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
AIG moved below its 50-day moving average on May 21, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AIG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AIG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 02, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 38, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AIG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.178) is normal, around the industry mean (2.084). P/E Ratio (15.590) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.920). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (6.024). AIG has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.019) as compared to the industry average of (0.054). P/S Ratio (1.192) is also within normal values, averaging (1.427).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a global insurance company, which provides property casualty insurance, life insurance, retirement products, mortgage insurance and other financial services
Industry MultiLineInsurance
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