Astrazeneca hits lower rail of an upward sloped trend channel
Pharmaceutical manufacturer Astrazeneca (NYSE: AZN) has been trending higher over the last three and a half months and a trend channel has formed that defines the various cycles within the overall trend. The stock bounced off of the lower rail of that channel earlier this week and now the stock looks poised to move higher in the coming weeks.
The 5o-day moving average is just above the lower rail and that gives the stock two layers of support to help it. We also see on the chart that the daily stochastic readings were flirting with oversold territory before making a bullish crossover on September 18. Similar developments in July and May were really good buy signals for the stock.
In addition to the oversold readings from the 10-day RSI and the stochastic readings, the stock dropped below its lower Bollinger Band on September 10. A price increase is expected as the stock heads toward the middle band. In 20 of 38 cases where Astrazeneca's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month.
Over the past year, Astrazeneca’s relative strength rating from Investor’s Business Daily is a 74, meaning that the stock is in the top 26% of all companies in IBD’s database from a price appreciation perspective.
Tickeron’s Price Growth Rating for Astrazeneca is 28, indicating outstanding price growth. The stock’s price has increased at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 points to highest price growth (largest percent return) while a rating of 100 points to lowest price growth (smallest percent return).
In addition to the technical indicators that are pointing toward an upside move for Astrazeneca, there are a number of fundamental indicators that are really positive for the stock. First, the company boasts a return on equity of 28.5% and a profit margin of 27.4%. Both of these figures are well above average. These two indicators are contributing factors as to why the company gets an SMR rating of 17 from Tickeron. This indicates that the company has very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Also from Tickeron, the Profit vs. Risk Rating for Astrazeneca is 31, indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for Astrazeneca is 21, pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.
As well as the company and the stock have performed over the past year, the sentiment toward Astrazeneca is anything but overly bullish. According to the Wall Street Journal, there are 24 analysts covering the stock at this time and 16 have it rated as a “buy”. There are five “hold” ratings and three “sell” ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 66.7%. This is in the lower portion of the average range. The average buy percentage is in the 65% to 75% range.
The short interest ratio is higher than average at 5.4 and that is surprising for a company like Astrazeneca. The number of shares sold short increased from 15.47 million shares to 16.32 million during the second half of August and that suggest the bearish sentiment is growing.
AZN's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for AZN moved out of oversold territory on October 28, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 27 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AZN advanced for three days, in of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AZN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AZN as a result. In of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AZN turned negative on October 25, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AZN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for AZN entered a downward trend on October 17, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.325) is normal, around the industry mean (5.632). P/E Ratio (35.297) is within average values for comparable stocks, (48.974). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.870) is also within normal values, averaging (3.004). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.164) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.585) is also within normal values, averaging (3.643).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AZN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor