Autodesk (ADSK, $199.86) Q3 earnings matches expectations
Autodesk posted third-quarter fiscal 2023 non-GAAP earnings of $1.70 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate (as reported by Zacks Equity Research). Revenues grew +14% from the year-ago quarter to $1.28 billion, meeting the consensus (according to Zacks Equity Research ). On a constant-currency basis, revenues climbed +15%.
The software company’s subscription revenues (~93% of total revenues) were up +14% year over year (+15% on a constant-currency basis) to $1.19 billion. Maintenance revenues (1% of total revenues) slipped to $16 million from $18 million in the year-ago quarter. Other revenues (6% of total revenues) grew +17% year-over-year to $76 million.
Billings grew +16% year over year in the quarter.
Revenues from the Americas (42% of revenues) increased +17% from the year-ago quarter to $541 million. Revenues from the EMEA (36% of revenues) climbed +10% to $476 million. Revenues from the Asia-Pacific (22% of revenues) were up +14% to $263 million.
For the fourth quarter, Autodesk expects revenues in the range of $1.303 billion to $1.318 billion, and Non-GAAP earnings of $1.77 to $1.83 per share.
For full fiscal year 2023, Autodesk now expects revenues in the range of $4.99 billion to $5.005 billion, compared to prior guidance of $4.985 billion to $5.035 billion. It projects billings to be $5.57 billion to $5.67 billion down from the earlier forecast of $5.705-$5.805 billion.
The company’s Non-GAAP earnings guidance is $6.56 to $6.62 per share, vs. prior outlook of $6.52-$6.71 per share. Free cash flow is now expected to range between $1.9 billion to $1.98 billion, down from the previous guidance of $2.000 billion to $2.080 billion.
ADSK in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on December 24, 2024
ADSK moved above its 50-day moving average on December 24, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 57 cases where ADSK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ADSK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ADSK moved out of overbought territory on November 25, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 50 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 18, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ADSK as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ADSK turned negative on November 27, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for ADSK entered a downward trend on December 24, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (29.940) is normal, around the industry mean (31.078). P/E Ratio (61.919) is within average values for comparable stocks, (160.694). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.557) is also within normal values, averaging (2.755). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.084) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.194) is also within normal values, averaging (58.228).
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a developer of multimedia software products
Industry PackagedSoftware