Badger Meter (BMI) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: What Investors Should Watch Closely
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 EPS of $1.20-$1.22, down about 8% from $1.30 reported in Q1 2025.
- Consensus revenue forecast around $231-232 million, up roughly 4% year-over-year from $222 million.
- Recent Q4 2025 results showed sales of $220.7 million and EPS of $1.14, slightly missing estimates but with margin expansion.
- Investors watching gross margins, SaaS revenue growth, and updates on the PRASA project in Puerto Rico.
- Company reaffirmed high single-digit sales growth outlook over next five years in recent earnings call.
- Stock has historically reacted positively to earnings beats, rising in 6 of last 12 reports.
Earnings Context and Why This Report Matters
As we approach Badger Meter (BMI)'s Q1 2026 earnings on April 17, there's understandable focus on this leader in water metering and flow measurement solutions. The company posted record full-year 2025 sales of $917 million, up 11% year-over-year, thanks to strong demand for smart water technologies like ultrasonic meters and cellular AMI systems. That said, recent quarters like Q4 2025 have included some misses on revenue. From what I see, this report will provide key signals on whether momentum holds in utility water products, especially with municipal infrastructure spending, the integration of the SmartCover acquisition, and SaaS revenue trends. Investors are looking for clarity on margin pressures from supply chain costs and project timing in a sector closely linked to water utility budgets.
What Wall Street Expects for Q1
Wall Street anticipates consensus EPS of approximately $1.21 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, reflecting a decline from $1.30 in Q1 2025, per Zacks and MarketBeat data based on 6-11 analysts. Revenue estimates hover at $231-232 million, a 4% increase from $222 million last year, supported by utility water interval data products and software growth. Key metrics to watch include gross profit margins (expected stable near 42%), operating margins around 20%, and SaaS contributions, which reached 20% of sales in recent quarters. No specific company guidance was issued post-Q4, but management maintains conviction in high single-digit annual sales growth through 2030, fueled by projects like PRASA. Historically, Badger Meter (BMI) has beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, though Q4 missed slightly; the stock often rises on positive surprises. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Current Sentiment
Heading into earnings, sentiment is cautious after Q4 2025's slight miss led to an 11-15% stock drop post-report, though shares have partially recovered. Analysts rate BMI a Hold with targets around $183, implying modest upside from current levels near $155-160. Key risks include EPS downside from higher SEA (selling, engineering, and administration) expenses or project delays, while beats on revenue growth and margins could spark gains, given the stock's history of positive reactions to outperformance. One thing that stands out is how the stock has risen in 6 of the last 12 reports following earnings beats.
Discovering Opportunities with Tickeron's AI Screener
In my own research process, I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for stock and ETF discovery that filters the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. It lets me scan thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable filters like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics—making it far more efficient than manual screening for spotting trade ideas, trending stocks, or breakout candidates. I've found it particularly useful for analyzing companies like Badger Meter (BMI) in context with peers.
Forward Outlook and What to Monitor Next
Following Q1 results, focus will shift to management's commentary on full-year 2026 trajectory. Badger Meter (BMI) targets high single-digit sales growth over five years, supported by durable demand for smart water solutions amid aging U.S. infrastructure and regulatory pushes for efficiency. I'm watching this closely.
Updates on the PRASA project—one of the largest AMI deployments globally—could drive variable quarterly revenue but bolster backlog. SaaS revenue from BEACON and SmartCover platforms is key, as recurring income now exceeds 20% of sales, enhancing predictability. This is important because it adds stability to the top line.
Margin trends remain critical: Q4 showed 42.1% gross margins and 20.5% base operating margins (excluding acquisitions), up significantly YoY. Investors should track SEA leverage, supply chain costs, and cellular endpoint adoption. Broader industry dynamics, like municipal budget cycles and water quality initiatives, will influence demand signals.
No formal 2026 guidance expected yet, but consensus projects full-year EPS near $5.00-$5.08 and revenue around $962 million, implying 5%+ growth. In my view, sustained execution here could reinforce the long-term story.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
BMI's Stochastic Oscillator slumps oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for BMI moved into oversold territory on October 06, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +1.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BMI advanced for three days, in 185 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
BMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BMI as a result. In 65 of 98 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BMI turned negative on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for BMI entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.371) is normal, around the industry mean (4.255). P/E Ratio (29.632) is within average values for comparable stocks, (88.653). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.931) is also within normal values, averaging (5.470). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.004) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.255) is also within normal values, averaging (32.028).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BMI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BMI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a maker of flow measurement and control products
Industry ElectronicEquipmentInstruments
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