Coffee Competition in China Grows, but Starbucks (SBUX, $65.69) Remains Relevant
Luckin Coffee, a 15-month-old Chinese coffee startup, is already operational in nearly 2,000 stores in China and is expected to reach 4,500 stores by the end of the year. Targeting low cost real estate and offering affordable coffee to young professionals, Luckin is a technology-forward startup that has already made name for itself in a short span of time.
Should Luckin's growth worry Starbucks?
It hasn't worried analysts yet, who maintain an overweight on Starbucks with a $70 price target.
Luckin is still a start-up, and in China per-capita coffee consumption is less than one cup/year compared to 300 cups in the U.S. So, there is an ample opportunity for growth for both companies.
Second, Starbucks also has a strong presence in China through its 3,251 stores, and its recent collaboration with UberEats is expected to act as a catalyst in further strengthening its foothold. Starting Wednesday, UberEats is launching Starbucks delivery in San Francisco that will be soon expanded into other U.S cities along with a test program in London. Also, the company plans add 6,000 new stores in China by 2022, therefore further enhancing its presence.
Finally, its recent licensing deal with Nestle S A/S ADR to expand greater in-home food consumption may prove to be a key catalyst for Starbucks.
SBUX sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for SBUX moved above the 200-day moving average on September 23, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 18, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SBUX as a result. In of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SBUX just turned positive on October 24, 2024. Looking at past instances where SBUX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SBUX advanced for three days, in of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SBUX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 67 cases where SBUX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SBUX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (5.853). P/E Ratio (27.308) is within average values for comparable stocks, (55.606). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.664) is also within normal values, averaging (1.769). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.048) is also within normal values, averaging (3.661).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. SBUX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a producer of coffee and tea
Industry Restaurants