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Coty (COTY, $7.44) surges more than +20% on adjusted earnings beat

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk|Expert

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.

COTY in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026

COTY moved below its 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 37 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on COTY as a result. In 71 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for COTY turned negative on September 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.

The 10-day moving average for COTY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 17 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COTY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for COTY's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

The 50-day moving average for COTY moved above the 200-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a +3.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COTY advanced for three days, in 195 of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.

COTY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 113 of 154 cases where COTY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. COTY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.716) is normal, around the industry mean (17.489). P/E Ratio (37.145) is within average values for comparable stocks, (43.367). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.182) is also within normal values, averaging (1.704). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.397) is also within normal values, averaging (1.884).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. COTY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.