Estee Lauder (EL,$184.71) shares decline, on lower-than-expected guidance, despite earnings beat
Estee Lauder shares declined on Thursday, after the cosmetics & skincare company reported better-than-anticipated earnings, but provided guidance below expectation.
For the three months ended Sept. 30, the company’s earnings came in at $1.61 a share, exceeding the $1.60 a share expected by analysts. The figure is also higher than the year-ago quarter’s $1.34 a share.
Revenue of $3.9 billion is up from $3.5 billion a year ago. It is also higher than analysts' forecasts.
CEO Fabrizio Freda indicated that strong international sales, particularly in China and other emerging markets, as well as within the company's skin care category, travel retail and online channels bolstered earnings for the quarter.
However, Estee Lauder now expects second-quarter earnings per share in the range of $1.83 to $1.86, and full-year per-share earnings of $5.85 to $5.93 - both the ranges are below analysts' forecasts. The company is cautious about potential global uncertainties like those related to the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, and currency volatility. Also, it will be taking charges associated with previously approved restructuring and other activities of around $110 million to $125 million in fiscal, equal to between 24 cents and 27 cents a share – as indicated by the company.
EL sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
EL saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on July 16, 2025. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EL moved out of overbought territory on July 15, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 53 cases where EL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 17, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EL as a result. In of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
EL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 02, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for EL moved above the 200-day moving average on July 16, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EL advanced for three days, in of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 203 cases where EL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.542) is normal, around the industry mean (17.380). P/E Ratio (117.853) is within average values for comparable stocks, (204.360). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.715) is also within normal values, averaging (3.832). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.107) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.617) is also within normal values, averaging (116.662).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. EL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company which offers skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products
Industry HouseholdPersonalCare
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