Etsy (ETSY, $127.90) misses quarterly earnings estimates; disappoints on sales guidance
Etsy shares fell, after the online marketplace posted lower-than-expected fourth quarter earnings and issued a revenue guidance that’s below the Street forecasts.
Etsy is expecting its gross merchandise revenue in the current fiscal first quarter to be between $2.95 billion to $3.15 billion, vs. the year-ago quarter’s revenue of $3.25 billion. Analysts were expecting $3.17 billion.
For the fourth quarter, Etsy posted earnings of 77 cents a share, missing analysts’ estimate of 80 cents a share. Sales of $807.2 million, however, topped the Street expectations of $755.4 million.
“In a stable macro environment, the math would suggest a return to GMS growth rates in the teens in the second half of this year. However, the data and information we are seeing so far in 2023 related to consumer spending shifts and pressure from the macro environment makes us very cautious,” Chief Financial Officer Rachel Glaser mentioned during the company’s earnings call.
ETSY's Stochastic Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 2 days
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
ETSY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ETSY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 26, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ETSY advanced for three days, in of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 232 cases where ETSY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ETSY moved out of overbought territory on December 18, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 18, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ETSY as a result. In of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ETSY turned negative on December 19, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ETSY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ETSY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on December 16, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ETSY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (4.875). P/E Ratio (28.128) is within average values for comparable stocks, (60.817). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.342) is also within normal values, averaging (2.753). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.028) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.643) is also within normal values, averaging (5.823).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ETSY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
an online marketplace for buying and selling of handmade and vintage goods
Industry InternetRetail