Fed minutes indicate risks from trade war; markets jump on hopes of interest rate cut
Stocks jumped to record highs Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments seemed to strengthen expectations for monetary policy easing.
The latest minutes released from Federal Open Market Committee indicate their perception of trade uncertainty posing risks to their economic growth and inflation projections. Powell's comments indicate that trade tensions and concerns about the global economy have challenged the policymakers' outlook on the U.S. economy. In prepared testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, Powell said business investments in the nation have slowed “notably” recently against economic outlook uncertainties.
However, Powell also mentioned that the U.S. economy remains healthy.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are anticipating a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut in July.
The S&P 500 briefly jumped above 3,000 for the first time. But later in the session it pared back its move to below 3,000, up 0.4%
SPY in +0.95% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on July 17, 2025
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 365 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 429 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on July 15, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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