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published in Blogs
Apr 04, 2019

India is expected to grow 7.3% in 2019, but is the estimate reliable?

Economic growth worldwide has taken a hit, and India is not outside the softening growth projections. A fair comparison could be made with China for whom the Sino-American trade war is proving hazardous. But India may be in a better position than China, as IMF says that being the six-largest economy in the world, India has the potential to grow by 7.3% in 2019.

However, these sources are unreliable.

The former chief economist of IMF himself expressed doubts over the veracity of these numbers, calling them ungrounded since there isn't any substantial job growth in India.

Consequently, he suggested that India should delegate the analysis to an independent third party body that could take a detailed look at the existing economy and come up with accurate numbers and realistic strategies.

China has also been criticized over its dubious growth figures, but some sources justify that it’s simply difficult to compile reliable data for emerging markets like India and China.

According to the World Bank’s statistical capacity score, India is in the 91st percentile in its ability to produce high quality aggregate data, beating China in its score at 77th percentile. This indicates that the nation should have a much easier time compared to China when it comes to providing investors with accurate numbers.

Reasons for the unreliable numbers in India are frequently, perhaps rightly, attributed to its strained relation with Pakistan over Kashmir issue, corruption and misinformation. Also, political instability in the country is also creating  uncertainty in the market.

 

Related Ticker: INDY

INDY in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 06, 2025

INDY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 43 cases where INDY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where INDY advanced for three days, in of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 282 cases where INDY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for INDY moved out of overbought territory on October 28, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 47 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 64 cases where INDY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 25, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on INDY as a result. In of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for INDY turned negative on November 21, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where INDY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the Nifty 50 IndexTM composed of 50 of the largest Indian equities. The underlying index measures the equity performance of the top 50 companies by free float market capitalization whose equity securities trade in the Indian securities markets. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The fund is non-diversified.
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India Equity
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iShares Trust400 Howard StreetSan Francisco
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