Is an ageing demographic a threat for Harley-Davidson (HOG, $36.75)?
The century-old American motorcycle icon, Harley-Davidson, may have had its day as a generational shift in attitudes towards heavyweight motorcycles is causing a sales dip. And with falling sales, shares of the company also dropped 32% in the last 12 months.
A recent survey report by UBS suggests that millennials these days consider buying motorcycles for more practical purposes, like easing their transportation, and hence opt for lightweight and less expensive ones. Older customers purchase bikes for lifestyle reasons like ‘as a hobby’ or because ‘motorcycles are cool.’
As an average Harley rider is an early 50’s married man with an annual income of $90,000 or more, people of this age buy motorcycles out of a passion for the product or lifestyle. But millennials seem to be more practical and prefer less expensive bikes that bring-in lower margins for manufacturers.
Millennials also tend to have lower earnings, fewer assets, and less wealth, meaning iconic companies like Harley-Davidson are finding it all the more difficult to stay afloat in an highly competitive and innovative market.
The survey also found, however, that younger generations also buy motorcycles for ‘self-image’ reasons, perhaps the sole hopeful sign for the iconic brand and the industry.
In an effort to counter the situation and to woo the new generation of riders, the company is setting up riding schools across U.S, and also unveiled its first electric motorcycle, the LiveWire – expected to hit market in the coming summer. Furthermore, the company has set up an ambitious plan to lure 2 million more riders to the brand over the next 10 years.
HOG in +3.76% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 28, 2024
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where HOG advanced for three days, in of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HOG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
HOG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 24, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HOG as a result. In of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HOG turned negative on October 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
HOG moved below its 50-day moving average on October 02, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HOG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HOG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for HOG entered a downward trend on October 28, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.828) is normal, around the industry mean (48.917). P/E Ratio (8.943) is within average values for comparable stocks, (55.184). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.619) is also within normal values, averaging (2.499). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.021) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.083) is also within normal values, averaging (5.104).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HOG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HOG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a manufacturer of motorcycles, parts and accessories
Industry RecreationalProducts