Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stock Drops -17% Over Past 30 Days on Earnings Miss and Delays
Key Takeaways
- LMT stock declined approximately -17% over the past 30 days, primarily driven by a Q1 2026 earnings miss, production delays on key programs like the F-16, and negative free cash flow.
- Over the past quarter, shares fell around -19%, erasing earlier gains amid company-specific challenges despite strong sector demand for defense products.
- Aeronautics segment profit dropped 14% due to fixed-price contract costs and F-16 issues, weighing heavily on overall results.
- Despite the pullback, LMT maintains a $186 billion backlog and reaffirmed full-year guidance, supported by geopolitical demand.
- Defense sector ETFs saw prior inflows, but LMT underperformed peers like RTX due to execution risks.
Lockheed Martin (LMT): A Key Player in Aerospace and Defense Portfolios
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) remains a cornerstone in the aerospace and defense space, serving as a strong single-stock proxy for ETF-style exposure to the sector. Rather than tracking an index, it offers direct access to a diversified business across four core segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control (MFC), Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS), and Space. The company delivers advanced technology systems to the U.S. government and international customers, with flagship programs like the F-35 Lightning II fighter jet driving much of its revenue. From what I see, this setup makes recent price action particularly telling, as setbacks in major programs like these ripple straight through to earnings and broader investor views on defense themes.
LMT Price Performance: The Last 30 Days Versus the Quarter
In the past 30 days, LMT shares dropped sharply by -16.9%, moving from around $618 to $514 in a volatile, downward-trending slide following earnings. The decline picked up speed after April 23, with several straight losing sessions amid intensified selling.
Looking at the full quarter, the stock fell -19.0%, from about $634 to $514, transitioning from early range-bound trading to a pronounced downtrend that lagged major indices.
Key Drivers Behind LMT's 30-Day Decline
The main trigger for LMT's 30-day drop was its Q1 2026 earnings release on April 23, which fell short of expectations. Earnings per share (EPS) landed at $6.44, missing forecasts, while sales hit $18.0 billion against the anticipated $18.24 billion. Free cash flow (FCF) turned negative at -$291 million, hit by working capital shifts and squeezed margins. Production holdups on the F-16 fighter and C-130 Hercules aircraft, plus elevated costs from fixed-price contracts, hit the Aeronautics segment—its biggest revenue driver—leading to a 14% profit decline. The stock fell 4.7% that day and kept sliding over eight sessions, even as munitions demand stayed solid. In my view, the market soured on execution risks, overshadowing the solid $186 billion backlog.
I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge how LMT stacks up against other defense names on fundamentals and trends.
What Shaped LMT's Performance Over the Quarter
Over the quarter, LMT's slide marked a reversal from earlier 2026 gains, as operational challenges piled up. The broader defense sector rode tailwinds from geopolitical tensions and ETF inflows into aerospace, but LMT grappled with supply chain strains and program delays. The Q1 miss poured fuel on these issues, with negative FCF and segment margin pressure denting confidence. Steady U.S. defense budgets lifted peers, yet LMT's exposure to fixed-price contracts and F-16/C-130 setbacks caused relative underperformance versus RTX. One thing that stands out is how institutional investors prioritized execution amid climbing military outlays, putting company risks ahead of sector positives.
Tools I Rely On: Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my research on stocks like LMT, I turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to sift through the market efficiently. This AI-powered tool lets me filter thousands of stocks and ETFs using custom criteria like technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals—such as industry peers, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. It surfaces trade ideas, breakouts, and opportunities faster than manual scans, which has been helpful for spotting setups in sectors like aerospace and defense.
What's Next for LMT Investors
I'm watching LMT's execution on F-16 and F-35 deliveries closely, as improvements there could steady the ship. Keep an eye on U.S. defense budget updates, geopolitical demand for missiles and aircraft, and supply chain progress in the sector. The reaffirmed 2026 guidance points to mid-single-digit sales growth and FCF rebound, with peers like RTX and Boeing offering context. Downside risks linger from more delays or overruns, but upside could come from new contracts and backlog work.
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LMT sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for LMT moved below the 200-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 24, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LMT as a result. In 42 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LMT turned negative on September 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 19 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.
LMT moved below its 50-day moving average on September 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LMT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 38%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for LMT entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LMT advanced for three days, in 204 of 348 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.643) is normal, around the industry mean (6.305). P/E Ratio (19.104) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.116). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.978) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.616) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of components and systems for aerospace and defense use
Industry AerospaceDefense
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