Luckin may dethrone Starbucks (SBUX, $77.62) in China
Starbucks’ Chinese rival, Luckin Coffee, is all set to take its rivalry with Starbucks to the next level as it filed for an IPO with the U.S. Securities and Exchange on Monday.
The company expects to raise $586.5 million in its initial public offering which implies an estimated offer of 34.5 million American depository shares (ADS) priced between $15 and $17 per ADS with each ADS representing eight Class A shares.
The coffee maker has been expanding rapidly with currently 2,370 stores in 28 Chinese cities and a plan to open another 2,500 stores by the end of this year in an ambition to replace Starbucks as the go-to coffee shop.
Coffee consumption in China has doubled to 8.7 billion cups last year from 4.4 billion in 2013 and is anticipated to rise to 15.5 billion cups by 2023. The Chinese coffee maker is rooting on this increase in consumption.
Further, Luckin’s app also has the option of ordering food and beverages outside coffee.
However, the company’s growth also has a flipside - it’s running into losses and may continue to do so in the near future. To date, it has recorded net losses of $475.4 million and total revenue of $125.27 million. For the first three months of 2019, it posted a net loss of $85.3 million.
Yet, the coffee maker has some high-profile investors like U.S. money manager BlackRock (BLK) and Chinese investment firms Centurium Capital and Joy Capital.
SBUX in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 08, 2026
SBUX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 23 of 38 cases where SBUX's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SBUX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 62 cases where SBUX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SBUX as a result. In 48 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SBUX just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where SBUX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +0.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SBUX advanced for three days, in 171 of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
SBUX moved below its 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SBUX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SBUX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for SBUX entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 10 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SBUX's P/B Ratio (-20.594) is slightly lower than the industry average of (5.328). P/E Ratio (55.069) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.128) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.901) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SBUX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SBUX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a producer of coffee and tea
Industry Restaurants
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