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Oct 27, 2021

Microsoft (MSFT, $310.11) beat fiscal Q1 expectations

Microsoft  posted  its fiscal first quarter revenue and earnings, both of which surpassed analysts’ expectations.

For the period ending Sept. 30,. the technology behemoth’s revenue climbed +22% year-over-year to $45.32 billion, beating the $43.97 billion  expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv.

The company’s earnings came in at $2.27 per share, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $2.07.

Revenue in Microsoft’s intelligent cloud rose +31% to $17 billion. The company’s  revenue from productivity and business processes increased +22% to $15 billion.

Microsoft said that it paid out $10.9 billion to shareholders in share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022, which implies an increase of +14% compared to the year-ago quarter.

Related Ticker: MSFT

Momentum Indicator for MSFT turns positive, indicating new upward trend

MSFT saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on February 28, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 94 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSFT advanced for three days, in of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 389 cases where MSFT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for MSFT moved out of overbought territory on February 12, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 58 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MSFT turned negative on February 13, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSFT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

MSFT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 09, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MSFT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.887) is normal, around the industry mean (28.933). P/E Ratio (37.380) is within average values for comparable stocks, (145.312). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.402) is also within normal values, averaging (2.854). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.088) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (13.569) is also within normal values, averaging (74.781).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 10.29B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.07T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.07T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 0%. MTC experienced the highest price growth at 142%, while IFBD experienced the biggest fall at -97%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -27%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -18% and the average quarterly volume growth was -6%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 75
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 82
Profit Risk Rating: 88
Seasonality Score: 2 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: TECHNOLOGY ETFs
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a developer of software and harware products

Industry PackagedSoftware

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Packaged Software
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MSFT and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MSFT has been loosely correlated with NOW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MSFT jumps, then NOW could also see price increases.

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