Mortgage rates are up in what is typically a slow time of the year. Lower interest rates, coupled with strong job growth and modest wage growth in 2018, have helped boost mortgage application volumes by 1.6% from last week to this week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says this, however, was 16% lower than a year ago.
"Mortgage rates fell across the board last week, driven by a similar slide in Treasury. Trade fears dominated investors' concerns for another week, and this was amplified by data released by the U.S. Commerce Department showing a widening trade deficit," said Joel Kan, MBA's associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) decreased to 4.96%, the lowest level since September, from 5.08%, with points increasing to 0.48 from 0.44 (including the origination fee) for loans with 20% down payments.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on April 30, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 139 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 139 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 22, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TOL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 13 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 26, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on April 29, 2024. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on April 26, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TOL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 53, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.900) is normal, around the industry mean (6.594). P/E Ratio (9.918) is within average values for comparable stocks, (94.223). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.006) is also within normal values, averaging (1.437). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.007) as compared to the industry average of (0.043). P/S Ratio (1.380) is also within normal values, averaging (80.487).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding