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published in Blogs
Jul 16, 2018
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NETFLIX EARNINGS ARE OUT

NETFLIX EARNINGS ARE OUT

As we wrote in our previous blog, while the external events have significant influence on the markets, they tend to be short-lived. The “real news” are in the earnings and we are witnessing the blood bath for one of the high flyers – Netflix (NFLX). The expectations of the growth for the number of subscribers (and thus the growth of the revenues) were nothing short but a pure fantasy. It seems that the entire world should be watching the movies only on the Netflix. It is indeed a remarkable service, but the stock has been up almost 100% YTD. It is now down 14% in aftermarket trading.  

Related Ticker: NFLX

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


NFLX's Stochastic Oscillator is sitting in oversold zone for 9 days

The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NFLX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 29 of 41 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.

Following a +2.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NFLX advanced for three days, in 217 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.

NFLX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NFLX as a result. In 53 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NFLX turned negative on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NFLX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.

The Aroon Indicator for NFLX entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NFLX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.758) is normal, around the industry mean (12.946). P/E Ratio (19.635) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.092). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.183) is also within normal values, averaging (2.376). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.798) is also within normal values, averaging (2.932).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NFLX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), Walt Disney Company (The) (NYSE:DIS), Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), Skydance Corporation (NYSE:SKYD), AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC), iQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ), HUYA (NYSE:HUYA).

Industry description

Movies/entertainment industry include companies that produce and distribute motion pictures, and companies that operate general entertainment facilities like amusement parks and bowling centers. Some companies in this industry also have professional sports franchises. Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., Liberty Media Corp. and Viacom Inc. are some of the biggest companies in this space.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Movies/Entertainment Industry is 16.21B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 293 to 264.08B. NFLX holds the highest valuation in this group at 264.08B. The lowest valued company is BLMZF at 293.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Movies/Entertainment Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -5%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7%. MSGR experienced the highest price growth at 31%, while CPOP experienced the biggest fall at -12%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Movies/Entertainment Industry was 7%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -15% and the average quarterly volume growth was -27%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 49
P/E Growth Rating: 54
Price Growth Rating: 56
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 76
Seasonality Score: 10 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a provider of online movie rental subscription services

Industry MoviesEntertainment

Industry
Cable Or Satellite TV
Address
121 Albright Way
Phone
+1 408 540-3700
Employees
16000
Web
https://www.netflix.com
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