NIO (NIO, $19.92) posted wider-than-expected Q4 loss
NIO reported a fourth quarter loss that was wider than analysts' expectations, even though the Chinese carmaker beat revenue expectations.
The company’s loss for the quarter was -1.36 yuan (-$0.21), more than twice as large as the loss per share analysts expected.
Revenue, however, climbed +49% from the year-ago quarter to 9.9 billion yuan, beating analysts’ expectations of 9.7 billion yuan.
NIO delivered 25,034 vehicles, higher than analysts’ expectation of 24,930. Total vehicle sales for the quarter increased +49.3% year-over-year to 9.2 billion yuan (vehicle sales accounted for about 93% of total revenue for the quarter). The company's measure of gross margin for vehicle sales, was 20.9% compared to 17.2% in the year-ago quarter, on the back of higher average selling prices.
For Q1 FY 2022, NIO projects vehicle deliveries to be between 25,000 and 26,000, which would represent a year-over-year growth rates of approximately 24.6% to 29.6%. It is expecting revenue growth between 20.6% and 25.1% compared to the first quarter of FY 2021.
Momentum Indicator for NIO turns negative, indicating new downward trend
NIO saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on May 24, 2023. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 70 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 70 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NIO turned negative on May 30, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 40 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
NIO moved below its 50-day moving average on May 24, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NIO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
NIO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 22, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NIO entered a downward trend on May 09, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NIO advanced for three days, in of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.766) is normal, around the industry mean (9.571). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (95.933). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (5.857). NIO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.042). P/S Ratio (1.770) is also within normal values, averaging (74.768).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NIO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NIO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
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Industry description
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High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a manufacturer of electric cars
Industry MotorVehicles
NIO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NIO has been closely correlated with XPEV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NIO jumps, then XPEV could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NIO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIO | 100% | +1.62% | ||
| XPEV - NIO | 82% Closely correlated | +0.13% | ||
| LI - NIO | 72% Closely correlated | -0.31% | ||
| NIU - NIO | 63% Loosely correlated | -4.10% | ||
| RIVN - NIO | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.94% | ||
| LCID - NIO | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.45% | ||
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