ON Semiconductor (ON): Q1 2026 Earnings Preview – Modest Growth Expected Amid Stabilization
Key Takeaways
- Analysts forecast Q1 2026 revenue of $1.49 billion, up 2.8-3% year-over-year (YoY) from $1.446 billion in Q1 2025.
- Consensus non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) stands at $0.61, a 10.9% YoY increase.
- Company guidance calls for revenue of $1.435-$1.535 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.56-$0.66.
- ON Semiconductor has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, as seen in Q4 2025 ($0.64 vs. $0.62 expected).
- Investors will focus on segment performance in Power Solutions Group (PSG), Analog and Mixed-Signal Group (AMG), and Intelligent Sensing Group (ISG), plus gross margins amid inventory normalization.
- Guidance for Q2 2026 and commentary on automotive, industrial, and AI data center demand will drive market reaction.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
ON Semiconductor (ON), a key player in power management, analog, and sensing semiconductors, dealt with significant challenges in 2025, including a 15% full-year revenue decline to $5.995 billion driven by inventory corrections in automotive and industrial end-markets. Q4 2025 revenue held steady sequentially at $1.53 billion, though year-over-year declines continued across segments. This Q1 2026 report, covering the period ended April 3, 2026, feels pivotal to me as it could validate early stabilization signals in markets like electric vehicles (EVs), industrial automation, and AI data centers. For investors, the insights into margin recovery, ongoing cash flow strength—highlighted by record $1.4 billion free cash flow in 2025—and positioning for a cyclical recovery will shape how we value the stock in this volatile semiconductor landscape.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street looks for Q1 2026 revenue of $1.49 billion, which sits right at the midpoint of the company's $1.435-$1.535 billion guidance and represents a slight uptick from Q1 2025's $1.446 billion. The consensus non-GAAP EPS of $0.61 falls within the guided range of $0.56-$0.66 and marks a 10.9% increase from last year, supported by operational efficiencies even with softer demand.
Investors will zero in on gross margins (guided at 37.5%-39.5% non-GAAP), segment contributions—PSG around 47% of Q4 revenue, AMG about 36%, ISG roughly 16%—and inventory updates. ON Semiconductor has a history of beating EPS estimates in recent quarters, though it missed revenue in Q4 2025 ($1.53 billion versus $1.54 billion expected). Stock moves have varied, often driven more by guidance than the numbers themselves. To get a sense of how ON compares, I checked it against peers using Tickeron’s AI Screener.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into these earnings is cautiously optimistic, lifted by Q4's strong cash generation and guidance but checked by ongoing end-market softness. Historically, shares have been volatile post-earnings—for example, dropping after Q4 2025's EPS beat due to the revenue miss and measured outlook. Risks like weaker guidance or delays in auto ramps loom large. Options activity points to balanced positioning, with eyes on the volatility to follow.
AI Screener
One tool I incorporate into my research routine is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered platform for discovering stocks and ETFs. It lets me filter thousands of assets using technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals, with customizable criteria like industry, market cap, indicators, and performance metrics. This streamlines finding trade ideas, breakouts, or opportunities that might otherwise take hours manually. From what I see, it's a practical way to stay ahead in stock screening.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Post-Q1, the Q2 2026 guidance will be critical for gauging recovery momentum. Management noted growing stability in automotive and industrial during Q4, plus momentum in AI data center power solutions. I'm watching closely for EV updates, where silicon carbide (SiC) gives ON a solid edge.
Margins are a focus too, with Q1 guidance hinting at gains from 2025 troughs via cost discipline and supply chain tweaks. Free cash flow—$1.4 billion returned to shareholders last year—signals robust balance sheet health and buyback potential. Broader tailwinds include industrial destocking resolution and hyperscaler needs for power-efficient semis. Keep an eye on design wins in autonomy sensing, supply chain geopolitics, and segment acceleration in PSG and ISG heading into H2 2026.
Disclaimer
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ON in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on April 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ON crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on April 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ON just turned positive on May 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where ON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ON advanced for three days, in of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 227 cases where ON Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ON moved out of overbought territory on May 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ON declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.828) is normal, around the industry mean (14.293). P/E Ratio (80.463) is within average values for comparable stocks, (229.278). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.362) is also within normal values, averaging (1.744). ON has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.014). P/S Ratio (7.310) is also within normal values, averaging (53.308).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a manufacturer of semiconductors
Industry Semiconductors
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