The stock of insurance provider Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) has doubled in price in the last two years. It has been one of the most consistent climbers during that span. The gain is pretty impressive when you consider that the S&P 500 is only up 25% over the same time period.
The stock has slipped in the last few weeks, which caused it to drop below the lower rail of a trend channel that seemed to be guiding the stock higher over the last few years. Despite falling below the lower rail, the stock appears to have found support at its 52-week moving average earlier this week and has since bounced back.
The oscillators have moved sharply lower over the last few weeks and they are now at their lowest levels since July. The 10-week RSI dipped to the 40 level and the weekly stochastic readings have dipped below the 50 level for only the second time in the last two years. When the indicators were this low in July, the stock bounced off the lower rail of the channel and then jumped approximately 20% in a few months.
Progressive has some pretty impressive fundamentals to go along with the technical performance. Earnings jumped by 313% in the most recent quarter compared to the same period a year ago. Analysts expect earnings to grow by 88% for the year as a whole.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PGR moved out of overbought territory on April 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 44 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 02, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PGR as a result. In of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PGR turned negative on April 25, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PGR declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
PGR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 19, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 49 cases where PGR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PGR advanced for three days, in of 349 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 360 cases where PGR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PGR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PGR's P/B Ratio (6.215) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.145). P/E Ratio (31.907) is within average values for comparable stocks, (31.140). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.300) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). PGR has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.005) as compared to the industry average of (0.031). P/S Ratio (1.987) is also within normal values, averaging (1.404).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a provider of automobile and casualty insurance services
Industry PropertyCasualtyInsurance