Qualcomm (QCOM) Q2 Earnings Preview: Key Expectations Amid Supply Headwinds and AI Momentum
Key Takeaways
- Analysts anticipate second quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of approximately $10.6 billion, down slightly year-over-year (YoY) from $10.8 billion in the prior-year period.
- Consensus non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) estimate stands at $2.57, within the company's guidance range of $2.45 to $2.65.
- Investors will scrutinize handset chip demand amid ongoing DRAM memory shortages impacting production.
- Strength in automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) segments expected to offset potential smartphone weakness.
- Progress on AI-enabled PCs using Snapdragon X Elite processors is a key highlight.
- Options market implies an approximately 8% stock move post-earnings.
Earnings Context and Why They Matter
Qualcomm (QCOM), a leader in wireless technologies and semiconductors, is set to report its second quarter fiscal 2026 results after market close on April 29, 2026. The company delivered a record first quarter with $12.3 billion in revenue, fueled by premium Android smartphone sales and growing diversification. Now, this report will test its resilience against industry headwinds like memory supply constraints and softening smartphone demand, especially in China. From what I see, investors are looking for clear signals on AI chip adoption and expansion into non-handset areas. With shares up over 10% lately on AI enthusiasm, these earnings could influence views on QCOM's shift away from mobile dependency toward PCs, autos, and IoT.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street expects second quarter revenue of $10.58 billion to $10.65 billion, a modest YoY decline driven mainly by handset segment pressures. This fits within Qualcomm's first quarter guidance of $10.2 billion to $11.0 billion, which accounted for DRAM shortages limiting modem production. Consensus non-GAAP EPS is pegged at $2.57, lower than last year but inside the company's $2.45-$2.65 range.
In focus will be Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT) revenues, projected around a $9.1 billion midpoint, and Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) royalties near $1.33 billion. Qualcomm has beaten EPS estimates in seven of the last eight quarters, though its first quarter guidance fell short, causing a post-earnings drop. One thing that stands out to me is the need to watch management commentary on AI PC ramps and automotive design wins for potential upside. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge how QCOM stacks up against semiconductor peers.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into earnings is mixed but cautious, with consensus EPS estimates cut by 4% over the past 30 days due to supply worries. QCOM shares have climbed about 11% in recent sessions amid AI optimism, but they remain exposed to smartphone cycles and China risks. Options traders are pricing a 7-8% post-earnings move, above average, which points to elevated volatility ahead. A miss on handset numbers or weak guidance could pressure the stock, while beats in AI and diversification might spark a rally.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
The guidance for third quarter and full fiscal 2026 will be critical, particularly any updates to the prior Q2 range of $10.2-11.0 billion. Investors should pay close attention to comments on DRAM supply recovery, as shortages continue to limit premium smartphone shipments.
AI stands out as a key bright spot—in my view, adoption of Snapdragon X Elite for Windows PCs could pick up speed, building on early design wins for multi-year growth. Automotive revenues, up over 50% YoY in Q1, merit watching for continued wins in connected vehicles and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS).
IoT diversification and edge AI provide buffers against handset swings. China dynamics, including premium device mix and regulations, will shape QTL royalties. Margins could face cost pressures, but AI and 5G tailwinds bode well long-term. Broader macro factors like consumer upgrade spending are worth monitoring too.
A Tool I Rely On: Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my research process, Tickeron’s AI Screener has become a go-to resource for scanning stocks and ETFs. It leverages AI to filter based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and signals, letting me quickly assess thousands of names using custom criteria like industry, market cap, indicators, and performance. For dynamic sectors like semiconductors, it uncovers trade ideas, breakouts, and opportunities far more efficiently than manual methods, helping inform data-driven decisions.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
Aroon Indicator for QCOM shows an upward move is likely
QCOM's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 06, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 205 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 139 of the 205 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
QCOM moved above its 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for QCOM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +11.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QCOM advanced for three days, in 217 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for QCOM moved out of overbought territory on September 28, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 77%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QCOM as a result. In 57 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QCOM turned negative on September 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 70%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QCOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
QCOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QCOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.241) is normal, around the industry mean (7.975). P/E Ratio (21.426) is within average values for comparable stocks, (165.532). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.832) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). QCOM has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.019) as compared to the industry average of (0.007). P/S Ratio (4.513) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QCOM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a provider of wireless communication systems
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