Strong upward trend for Twilio (TWLO) looks to continue
Enterprise software firm has been trending higher over the last four months and it has had one of the best price performances of all stocks over the past year. The company scores a 99 on Investor’s Business Daily’s Relative Price Strength Rating and that is the highest score you can get.
Looking at the daily chart we see that a trend channel has formed from the low in December. The upper rail was formed by the highs from February and March. The lower rail hits the low from late December and early January and now this past week.
The daily stochastic readings didn’t quite reach oversold territory on this latest pullback, but they did get close. The indicators also just made a bullish crossover on April 10.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on April 9 and that signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 89% and the previous signals on Twilio have been successful 83% of the time.
Twilio’s fundamentals are very interesting. The company’s earnings have been flat for the last three years, but they jumped by 233% in the most recent quarter. Sales have increased at an annual rate of 53% per year over the last three years and they were up 77% in the most recent quarterly report.
Unfortunately, the company’s management efficiency measurements aren’t very good. The return on equity is only 2.9% and the profit margin is only 1.1%.
Aroon Indicator for TWLO shows an upward move is likely
TWLO's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on December 24, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 209 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 209 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 03, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TWLO as a result. In of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TWLO advanced for three days, in of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 63 cases where TWLO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TWLO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TWLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.168) is normal, around the industry mean (11.194). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (48.888). TWLO's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (28.154) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.441). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.756) is also within normal values, averaging (19.660).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TWLO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a provider of cloud-based communications platform
Industry InternetSoftwareServices