Ulta Beauty (ULTA, $237.73) disappoints on earnings; lowers full-year guidance
Ulta Beauty shares plummeted close to -30% Friday, after the company lowered its fiscal- full-year outlook and also missed earnings expectations.
The chain of stores selling cosmetics and hair & skincare products reported net income of $2.76 per share which, although higher than the year-ago quarter’s $2.46, fell short of the Street estimate of $2.80.
Revenue for the quarter increased +12% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, which was in line with expectations.
Comparable sales (which in this case includes stores open at least 14 months and e-commerce sales) increased +6.2%. Last year same quarter, the growth was +6.5%.
But for the full-year, the company reduced its guidance citing headwinds in the U.S. cosmetics market. Ulta now expects EPS to range between $11.86 and $12.06 for the year, down from its prior projection of $12.83 to $13.03 range. The company indicated that the revision includes the effect of around $700 million in share buybacks and also the assumption of a 23% effective tax rate (versus 24% previously).
Ulta has predicted comparable sales growth of approximately +4% to +6%, down from previous estimates of +6% to +7%. The forecast includes e-commerce growth of +20% to +30%.
The company hopes to increase total sales by +9% to +12%, as compared to previous forecasts of low double-digit growth.
The company expressed plans to open around 80 new stores, remodel or relocate 20 others and do some touch-ups of about 270 stores.
ULTA's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for ULTA moved out of oversold territory on October 30, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 23 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 55 cases where ULTA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ULTA just turned positive on November 25, 2025. Looking at past instances where ULTA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ULTA moved above its 50-day moving average on November 26, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ULTA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 17, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ULTA as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for ULTA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 24, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for ULTA entered a downward trend on November 24, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.217) is normal, around the industry mean (6.492). P/E Ratio (20.544) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.622). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.320) is also within normal values, averaging (4.307). ULTA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.027). P/S Ratio (2.114) is also within normal values, averaging (5.295).
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General Information
a company that retails cosmetics and other personal care products
Industry SpecialtyStores
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