Ulta (ULTA, $469.91) beats fiscal Q3 expectations
Ulta Beauty topped analysts’ expectations in its fiscal third quarter, and boosted its guidance for the full year amidst solid demand.
The skincare/cosmetics company’s earnings for the quarter came in at $5.34 per share, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $4.15 per share.
Revenue of $2.34 billion also beat expectations of $2.21 billion. Comparable sales climbed +14.6% year over year (vs.+ 25.8% increase in the year-ago period, and well above the 8.8% expected by analysts according to StreetAccount).
Looking ahead, Ulta raised its full-year earnings projection to a range of $22.60 to $22.90 per share, vs. prior forecast of $20.70 to $21.20 per share. The forecast also exceeds the Street expectation of $21.40 earnings per share. The company now expects full-year revenue of between $9.95 billion to $10 billion, compared to its previous outlook of $9.65 billion to $9.75 billion. Analysts had anticipated $9.77 billion in revenue. Ulta expects comparable sales y/y growth in the range of 12.6% to 13.2%, vs. prior forecast of 9.5% to 10.5%.
ULTA in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on May 03, 2023
ULTA moved below its 50-day moving average on May 03, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 50 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 01, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ULTA as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ULTA turned negative on May 01, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day moving average for ULTA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 10, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for ULTA entered a downward trend on June 02, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ULTA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.428) is normal, around the industry mean (15.528). P/E Ratio (17.182) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.746) is also within normal values, averaging (2.491). ULTA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.038). P/S Ratio (2.061) is also within normal values, averaging (69.830).
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High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a company that retails cosmetics and other personal care products
Industry SpecialtyStores
ULTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ULTA has been loosely correlated with TSCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ULTA jumps, then TSCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ULTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 100% | +4.60% | ||
| TSCO - ULTA | 62% Loosely correlated | +2.36% | ||
| SBH - ULTA | 51% Loosely correlated | +5.48% | ||
| ASO - ULTA | 50% Loosely correlated | +5.68% | ||
| HNST - ULTA | 49% Loosely correlated | +6.90% | ||
| FIVE - ULTA | 48% Loosely correlated | +7.79% | ||
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