GET DAILY SIGNALSUlta (ULTA, $469.91) beats fiscal Q3 expectations
Ulta Beauty topped analysts’ expectations in its fiscal third quarter, and boosted its guidance for the full year amidst solid demand.
The skincare/cosmetics company’s earnings for the quarter came in at $5.34 per share, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $4.15 per share.
Revenue of $2.34 billion also beat expectations of $2.21 billion. Comparable sales climbed +14.6% year over year (vs.+ 25.8% increase in the year-ago period, and well above the 8.8% expected by analysts according to StreetAccount).
Looking ahead, Ulta raised its full-year earnings projection to a range of $22.60 to $22.90 per share, vs. prior forecast of $20.70 to $21.20 per share. The forecast also exceeds the Street expectation of $21.40 earnings per share. The company now expects full-year revenue of between $9.95 billion to $10 billion, compared to its previous outlook of $9.65 billion to $9.75 billion. Analysts had anticipated $9.77 billion in revenue. Ulta expects comparable sales y/y growth in the range of 12.6% to 13.2%, vs. prior forecast of 9.5% to 10.5%.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ULTA in +0.39% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on October 27, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in 214 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for ULTA moved above the 200-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 169 of 277 cases where ULTA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ULTA moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ULTA turned negative on November 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
ULTA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ULTA's P/B Ratio (10.428) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.289). P/E Ratio (23.412) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.578). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.978) is also within normal values, averaging (1.159). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.102) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.806) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a company that retails cosmetics and other personal care products
Industry SpecialtyStores
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