Vail Resorts (MTN) Reports Lower Fiscal 2026 Third-Quarter Results and Reduces Full-Year Guidance
Key Takeaways
- Vail Resorts reported fiscal 2026 third-quarter net income of $314.4 million, down from $389.7 million a year earlier.
- Resort Reported EBITDA totaled $586.4 million versus $647.7 million in the prior-year period.
- The company lowered full-year fiscal 2026 guidance to net income of $128 million to $162 million and Resort Reported EBITDA of $735 million to $755 million.
- Early season pass product sales for the 2026/2027 North American ski season declined approximately 5% in dollars, 10% in units, and 8% in days sold.
- Skier visits and other operating metrics reflected softer mountain performance compared with the prior year.
Why These Results Matter
Vail Resorts operates the largest network of ski resorts in North America, so its quarterly performance serves as a useful indicator of leisure travel demand and discretionary spending trends. The fiscal third quarter, which ended April 30, covers the heart of the winter ski season and usually drives the bulk of annual profits. Results in recent periods have fluctuated with weather conditions, season pass momentum, and broader economic factors that influence travel plans. I pay close attention to these releases because they offer early signals on pass renewals and updated guidance that shape expectations for the full fiscal year ending July 31.
The Quarter in Detail
Vail Resorts reported fiscal 2026 third-quarter net income attributable to the company of $314.4 million, compared with $389.7 million in the same quarter a year earlier. Resort Reported EBITDA reached $586.4 million versus $647.7 million previously. The company revised its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook downward, now expecting net income in the range of $128 million to $162 million and Resort Reported EBITDA between $735 million and $755 million. Early indicators for the 2026/2027 ski season showed pass product unit sales down about 10%, days sold down about 8%, and sales dollars down about 5% through late May, relative to the prior-year period.
To place these figures in context with other leisure and consumer discretionary names, I ran a quick comparison using Tickeron’s AI Screener.
Investor Response to the Release
Shares of MTN moved in reaction to the combination of lower year-over-year results and the reduction in full-year guidance. Attention focused on the softer ski season metrics and what they could mean for pass sales momentum heading into next winter. The earnings release came after market close on June 8, 2026, with commentary underscoring ongoing caution around consumer spending in leisure categories.
Key Areas to Watch Going Forward
Investors will follow the pace of early season pass sales through the summer months, as these numbers give the clearest read on demand for the 2026/2027 ski season. Management’s updated guidance reflects lower expected Resort Reported EBITDA and net income for the full fiscal year, pointing to continued pressure on operating results. Weather patterns during the upcoming winter remain a critical variable, given the company’s exposure to natural snowfall and its ability to produce snow at its resorts. Broader trends in domestic and international travel spending, along with any changes in pricing or product offerings for season passes, could affect revenue mix and margins. Cost management efforts and capital spending plans for resort improvements will also merit attention in future updates.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When analyzing companies like MTN, I find it helpful to supplement traditional review with data-driven screening. Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. I occasionally turn to this platform when I want a structured way to compare a company’s metrics against peers or broader industry benchmarks before forming a final view.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
MTN in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on August 19, 2026
MTN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 37 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTN moved out of overbought territory on July 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTN turned negative on August 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on August 18, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTN as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for MTN moved above the 200-day moving average on July 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTN advanced for three days, in of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 152 cases where MTN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.872) is normal, around the industry mean (9.505). P/E Ratio (32.933) is within average values for comparable stocks, (83.804). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.589). MTN's Dividend Yield (0.058) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.022). P/S Ratio (1.943) is also within normal values, averaging (1.154).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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a company which owns and operates resorts
Industry HotelsResortsCruiselines
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