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ERIE vs MRSH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Erie Indemnity (ERIE) vs. Marsh & McLennan (MRSH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ERIE is a fee-based insurance services company, while MRSH is a diversified global professional-services and insurance-brokerage firm, giving the two very different growth and risk profiles.
- Erie Indemnity has shown improving underwriting results and a recent rebound, but its share price remains down over the trailing year amid softer premium growth.
- Marsh McLennan has delivered steady mid-single-digit underlying revenue growth and double-digit adjusted EPS (earnings per share) growth, supported by its Thrive efficiency program.
- ERIE trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple relative to many insurance peers, while MRSH carries a larger market capitalization and more diversified revenue base.
- Leadership transitions at Erie Indemnity and a soft commercial insurance pricing environment at Marsh are key watch items for investors.
Introduction
Investors comparing ERIE and MRSH are weighing two distinct ways to gain exposure to the insurance industry. Erie Indemnity acts as the managing attorney-in-fact for the Erie Insurance Exchange, earning fee-based income tied to policy issuance and renewal. Marsh McLennan is a global professional-services leader spanning insurance brokerage, reinsurance, and consulting. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and risk across a focused regional operator versus a diversified multinational. Understanding their contrasting business models and recent momentum can help clarify which name better fits a given portfolio objective in the current market environment.
ERIE Overview and Recent Performance
Erie Indemnity Company operates as the attorney-in-fact for subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange, a reciprocal property and casualty insurer based in Erie, Pennsylvania. Its fee-based model generates management fee revenue from policy issuance and renewal services, rather than underwriting profit directly. In recent weeks, the stock has regained favor after stronger quarterly results, with second-quarter revenue rising to roughly $1.09 billion and net income improving on a year-over-year basis. A significant improvement in the combined ratio (a key measure of underwriting profitability, where a lower figure is better) reflected reduced catastrophe losses and better rate adequacy.
That said, the broader picture remains mixed. Direct written premium growth has slowed, policies in force have declined modestly, and retention has eased. The company has also announced CEO and CFO transitions scheduled for 2026, which adds a layer of execution uncertainty. Despite a recent bounce, ERIE has lagged over the trailing year, and its valuation continues to screen at a premium to many insurance peers.
MRSH Overview and Recent Performance
Marsh McLennan is a global professional-services firm operating through four businesses: Marsh (insurance brokerage), Guy Carpenter (reinsurance brokerage), Mercer (health, retirement, and investment consulting), and Oliver Wyman (management consulting). This diversified structure generates revenue across risk advisory, insurance placement, and human capital services worldwide. In its most recent quarter, consolidated revenue grew roughly 8%, with about 5% underlying growth, while adjusted EPS rose double digits year over year.
Recent market activity has been supported by the company's Thrive efficiency program, whose savings target was raised from $400 million to $600 million, along with continued share repurchases and a brand transition consolidating several units under the Marsh name. Headwinds include a soft commercial insurance pricing environment, with global rates declining in recent quarters, and a subdued reinsurance market. Analysts generally maintain an outperform stance on the stock, though momentum indicators have been relatively muted.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is scope. ERIE is a concentrated, fee-based services business tied to a single regional reciprocal insurer, giving it high return on equity but limited diversification and exposure to regional weather and competitive dynamics. MRSH is a global platform with revenue spread across brokerage, reinsurance, and consulting, which offers diversification but also exposes it to soft pricing cycles and macroeconomic sensitivity in consulting demand.
On growth, MRSH has shown more consistent organic expansion, while ERIE is navigating slower premium growth and leadership change even as underwriting profitability improves. On valuation, ERIE trades at a higher P/E multiple and offers a higher dividend yield, whereas MRSH carries a larger market capitalization with a lower payout ratio supporting dividend growth. Risk factors differ as well: ERIE faces concentration and transition risk, while MRSH faces pricing headwinds and integration costs from its efficiency program.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MRSH in the current environment. The company's steadier organic revenue growth, double-digit adjusted EPS expansion, diversified business mix, and visible efficiency-driven margin catalyst present a more consistent trend profile than ERIE, which is contending with slower premium growth, elevated valuation, and pending executive transitions. That said, ERIE's improving underwriting results and recent share-price rebound could support favorable momentum if these trends persist. The assessment reflects probabilistic analysis of current data rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ERIE is a StrongBuy and MRSH is a StrongBuy.
ERIE in +5.91% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 16, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where ERIE advanced for three days, in 199 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ERIE as a result. In 50 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ERIE just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ERIE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
ERIE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ERIE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ERIE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
ERIE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ERIE entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ERIE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to slightly better than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ERIE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.443) is normal, around the industry mean (2.616). P/E Ratio (20.726) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.071). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (17.200) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.070) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
Momentum Indicator for MRSH turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MRSH saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 48 of the 87 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 55%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MRSH just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where MRSH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
MRSH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MRSH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
Following a +1.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRSH advanced for three days, in 160 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
MRSH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MRSH entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MRSH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.263) is normal, around the industry mean (2.616). P/E Ratio (24.272) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.071). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.486) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.089) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
ERIE | MRSH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 46 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 99 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 66 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 39 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MRSH's Valuation (88) in the null industry is in the same range as ERIE (99) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to ERIE’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's Profit vs Risk Rating (66) in the null industry is in the same range as ERIE (80) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to ERIE’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's SMR Rating (37) in the null industry is in the same range as ERIE (39) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to ERIE’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's Price Growth Rating (42) in the null industry is in the same range as ERIE (47) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to ERIE’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's P/E Growth Rating (35) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ERIE (68) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew somewhat faster than ERIE’s over the last 12 months.
| ERIE | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 29% | 2 days ago 39% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 48% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 47% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 30 days ago 57% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 37% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ERIE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while MRSH’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ERIE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MRSH’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ERIE’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRSH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ERIE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MRSH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ERIE (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +7.59% price change this week, while MRSH (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +6.82% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was +5.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.18%.
Reported Earning Dates
ERIE is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
MRSH is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (+5.61% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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ERIE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ERIE has been loosely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ERIE jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ERIE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERIE | 100% | +5.19% | ||
| BRO - ERIE | 64% Loosely correlated | +5.61% | ||
| AJG - ERIE | 59% Loosely correlated | +4.88% | ||
| MRSH - ERIE | 53% Loosely correlated | +4.57% | ||
| RYAN - ERIE | 51% Loosely correlated | +5.28% | ||
| AON - ERIE | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.23% | ||
More | ||||
MRSH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRSH has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MRSH jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRSH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 100% | +4.57% | ||
| BRO - MRSH | 80% Closely correlated | +5.61% | ||
| AJG - MRSH | 80% Closely correlated | +4.88% | ||
| AON - MRSH | 79% Closely correlated | +4.23% | ||
| WTW - MRSH | 65% Loosely correlated | +4.58% | ||
| RYAN - MRSH | 59% Loosely correlated | +5.28% | ||
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