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FUTU vs IBKR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Futu Holdings (FUTU) vs. Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FUTU is delivering strong operating growth—record trading volume and rising accounts—but reported net income was sharply dented by a large Chinese regulatory penalty.
- IBKR has posted robust account and asset growth with an exceptionally high pre-tax margin, and its shares have materially outperformed so far in 2026.
- FUTU carries a materially lower valuation and heavy exposure to Asia regulatory dynamics, while IBKR trades at a premium multiple tied to its global, diversified footprint.
- Sentiment is diverging: IBKR is benefiting from consistent earnings scalability, whereas FUTU is being repriced around regulatory and compliance uncertainty.
- The two names suit different profiles—FUTU as a higher-growth, higher-risk Asia-focused play, IBKR as a steadier global brokerage compounder.
Introduction
Investors evaluating online brokerage platforms increasingly weigh growth potential against regulatory and valuation risk. FUTU, the Chinese-founded digital brokerage operating under the Moomoo brand, and IBKR, the global electronic trading pioneer Interactive Brokers Group, sit at opposite ends of that spectrum. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles to help traders and longer-term investors understand where each name stands in the current environment. Both have expanded aggressively across international markets in recent quarters, yet their paths—and their investor sentiment—have diverged meaningfully.
FUTU Overview and Recent Performance
Futu Holdings is a technology-driven brokerage and wealth-management platform with its largest client base in Hong Kong and Singapore, plus rapidly growing operations in Malaysia, Japan, and the United States. Recent weeks have highlighted both the strength and the fragility of its model. The company added 225,000 net new funded accounts in its latest quarter, bringing total funded accounts to 3.59 million, up 34% year over year, while total trading volume reached a record. Revenue rose roughly 25% year over year, and gross margin expanded to 87.2%.
That operating momentum, however, has been overshadowed by regulatory developments. Futu reflected a large administrative penalty from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in its results, which drove reported net income down sharply despite underlying growth. The company has also ceased account openings for Mainland China ID holders, and Japan's regulator suspended new account openings for a period over compliance issues. These factors have pressured the share price in recent market activity, leaving FUTU trading well below its earlier-year highs and at a comparatively low earnings multiple.
IBKR Overview and Recent Performance
Interactive Brokers Group is one of the world's largest automated electronic brokers, offering access to stocks, options, futures, currencies, and digital assets across more than 170 market centers in 40 countries. Its recent performance has been defined by consistency and scale. In its latest quarter, revenue rose about 16% year over year, driven by net interest income (NII) up 19% and commissions up 12%. Total client accounts grew 35% to roughly 5.6 million, and customer equity climbed 27% to nearly $965 billion.
IBKR's pre-tax margin has remained exceptionally high, around 78%, supported by a highly automated, low-cost operating model. The company also raised its quarterly dividend substantially, signaling confidence in cash generation. Unlike FUTU, IBKR has not faced a comparable regulatory shock, and its diversified global base has helped it compound account and asset growth. That said, the stock's strong advance has lifted its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio well above its historical range, a point some analysts flag as a valuation risk even as consensus ratings remain broadly favorable.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is their risk-and-return profile. IBKR is a global, multi-asset franchise with a diversified revenue mix spanning commissions, net interest income, and other fees across dozens of markets. Its growth is steady and its profitability industry-leading, but the market prices that quality at a premium. FUTU, by contrast, is a faster-growing but more concentrated business whose revenue and client base remain tied to Asia—especially Greater China and Southeast Asia—and therefore more exposed to a single regulator's policy shifts.
On recent momentum, IBKR has been the stronger performer, with its shares advancing substantially this year against a backdrop of record account and margin-loan growth. FUTU has delivered impressive operating metrics but has seen its stock weigh down by regulatory penalties and compliance suspensions. Sector exposure also differs: both are brokers, but FUTU's fortunes hinge more directly on Chinese and Hong Kong equity volumes and policy, while IBKR benefits from broad cross-border activity. In terms of valuation, FUTU trades at a discount that reflects elevated uncertainty, whereas IBKR's premium reflects durability and market confidence.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, earnings scalability, regulatory stability, and relative positioning—Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward IBKR in the current environment. The company's sustained account growth, exceptional margins, and diversified revenue streams provide a steadier foundation than FUTU's more volatile regulatory backdrop. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: FUTU offers potentially greater upside if regulatory pressures ease and its international expansion compounds, but it carries a correspondingly higher risk of drawdown. The AI's preference reflects relative stability and trend consistency more than an absolute judgment on either company's long-term quality.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FUTU is a Hold and IBKR is a Buy.
FUTU's RSI Indicator stoops into oversold zone
The RSI Indicator for FUTU moved into overbought territory on October 22, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FUTU advanced for three days, in 255 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
FUTU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FUTU as a result. In 67 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FUTU turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
FUTU moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for FUTU crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FUTU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for FUTU entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.357) is normal, around the industry mean (3.532). P/E Ratio (1.241) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.846). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.105) settles around the average of (7.708) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.699) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FUTU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FUTU’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
IBKR in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026
IBKR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 36 cases where IBKR's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 47 cases where IBKR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +4.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IBKR advanced for three days, in 252 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IBKR as a result. In 44 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for IBKR turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 57%.
IBKR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IBKR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator for IBKR entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. IBKR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.314) is normal, around the industry mean (3.532). P/E Ratio (32.522) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.846). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.406) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (7.708) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.498) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
FUTU | IBKR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 60 Fair valued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 92 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 33 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FUTU's Valuation (60) in the null industry is in the same range as IBKR (92) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that FUTU’s stock grew similarly to IBKR’s over the last 12 months.
IBKR's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is significantly better than the same rating for FUTU (92) in the null industry. This means that IBKR’s stock grew significantly faster than FUTU’s over the last 12 months.
FUTU's SMR Rating (33) in the null industry is in the same range as IBKR (45) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that FUTU’s stock grew similarly to IBKR’s over the last 12 months.
IBKR's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as FUTU (63) in the null industry. This means that IBKR’s stock grew similarly to FUTU’s over the last 12 months.
IBKR's P/E Growth Rating (35) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FUTU (96) in the null industry. This means that IBKR’s stock grew somewhat faster than FUTU’s over the last 12 months.
| FUTU | IBKR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 4 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FUTU’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while IBKR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FUTU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- IBKR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FUTU’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while IBKR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FUTU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- IBKR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FUTU (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -4.04% price change this week, while IBKR (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +1.41% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -5.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -16.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
FUTU is expected to report earnings on Nov 17, 2026.
IBKR is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-5.09% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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FUTU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FUTU has been closely correlated with TIGR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FUTU jumps, then TIGR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FUTU | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUTU | 100% | -5.82% | ||
| TIGR - FUTU | 82% Closely correlated | -1.93% | ||
| IBKR - FUTU | 50% Loosely correlated | -3.57% | ||
| XP - FUTU | 41% Loosely correlated | -3.52% | ||
| HOOD - FUTU | 40% Loosely correlated | -5.25% | ||
| BMNR - FUTU | 39% Loosely correlated | -6.09% | ||
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IBKR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IBKR has been closely correlated with HOOD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IBKR jumps, then HOOD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To IBKR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBKR | 100% | -3.57% | ||
| HOOD - IBKR | 68% Closely correlated | -5.25% | ||
| GS - IBKR | 67% Closely correlated | -1.48% | ||
| RJF - IBKR | 66% Loosely correlated | +2.25% | ||
| MS - IBKR | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.63% | ||
| GLXY - IBKR | 60% Loosely correlated | -9.69% | ||
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