Advertisement
HMY vs IAG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both HMY and IAG are gold producers, but Harmony adds copper diversification while IAMGOLD remains a gold-focused developer-producer.
- HMY posted record fiscal 2026 results with minimal leverage and a dividend yield near 4.7%; IAG pays no dividend but is executing an active share buyback.
- IAG carries a much higher beta (roughly 2.35) than HMY (near 0.79), indicating greater price volatility.
- Both names have retreated in recent weeks amid rising energy costs tied to geopolitical tension, though their underlying fundamentals remain strong.
- Risk profiles differ sharply: HMY faces South African electricity and labor exposure, while IAG carries jurisdictional risk in Burkina Faso.
Introduction
Gold miners have been a focal point for investors as elevated bullion prices and shifting macroeconomic conditions reshape the sector. This stock comparison examines two producers at different stages of their corporate lifecycles: Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY), an established South African gold-copper operator, and IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG), a Canadian developer-producer anchored by its Côté Gold mine. Both offer leveraged exposure to gold, yet their relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles diverge meaningfully. Traders seeking momentum and growth catalysts, as well as longer-term investors weighing stability against volatility, may find this comparison particularly relevant.
HMY Overview and Recent Performance
Harmony Gold Mining is a gold and copper mining company with operations in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. In recent market activity, the company has delivered record results, including revenue growth of 34% and net profit up more than 100% for its fiscal year ended June 2026. Gold production met guidance for an eleventh consecutive year, and the integration of the CSA copper mine in Australia has expanded its portfolio beyond gold. Harmony has also converted gold and copper resources into reserves, while advancing the Eva Copper project, which targets first production by late 2028.
Despite these fundamentals, HMY shares pulled back roughly 15% in recent weeks. Sentiment has been pressured by rising electricity and labor costs in South Africa and by broader commodity-price volatility linked to Middle East tensions. Management has indicated costs remain under control, and the company maintains a strong balance sheet with net debt of only about 0.02 times EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
IAG Overview and Recent Performance
IAMGOLD Corporation is a gold producer and developer with assets in Canada and Burkina Faso. Its flagship Côté Gold mine in Ontario anchors the portfolio, alongside the Westwood and Essakane operations. In the first quarter of 2026, IAG reported attributable production of 183,600 ounces, revenue exceeding $1 billion, and mine-site free cash flow of roughly $525 million, positioning it well against full-year guidance of 720,000 to 820,000 ounces.
IAMGOLD has used strong cash flow to repay debt and repurchase shares, with approximately $350 million returned through buybacks since late 2025. The company also received a Fitch rating outlook upgrade to positive. However, the stock has retreated in recent weeks, and at least one major bank lowered its price target, reflecting cost pressures and near-term uncertainty. All-in sustaining costs (AISC, a per-ounce measure of full production cost) of about $2,124 per ounce highlight ongoing cost discipline challenges.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a curated list of Trending AI Robots that highlights the trading bots best suited to current market conditions. Tickeron's platform features hundreds of AI trading bots that trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and set of securities. Only a select group earns placement in this section. Because every bot applies a distinct analytical approach, investors can evaluate patterns and statistics to identify strategies aligned with their objectives. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to review current candidates and consider which automated strategies may complement your research process.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly on diversification and risk. HMY is building a gold-copper franchise, using copper assets to widen margins and reduce single-commodity dependence, while IAG remains gold-focused with a Canadian flagship. On growth drivers, Harmony's catalysts center on copper expansion at CSA and Eva, whereas IAMGOLD's revolve around debottlenecking Côté and a planned technical report outlining a larger mine incorporating the Gosselin zone.
Shareholder returns also contrast: Harmony pays a dividend with a yield near 4.7%, while IAMGOLD returns capital through buybacks. On risk, Harmony contends with South African electricity and labor costs, whereas IAMGOLD faces Burkina Faso royalty and cash-repatriation exposure. Relative performance has been mixed, with both stocks lower in recent weeks but IAMGOLD displaying notably higher beta and analyst consensus support.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward HMY for its combination of trend consistency, lower volatility, a modest dividend, and an exceptionally strong balance sheet. Harmony's record results and multi-year track record of meeting guidance suggest greater stability, even amid near-term cost headwinds. That said, IAG presents a more catalyst-rich growth profile with higher beta and a consensus "Buy" rating, which may appeal to momentum-oriented traders willing to accept added volatility. The AI's preference is therefore probabilistic rather than definitive, contingent on how risk tolerance and catalyst timing are weighed.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HMY is a Hold and IAG is a StrongBuy.
HMY sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for HMY moved above the 200-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HMY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HMY just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where HMY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +5.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HMY advanced for three days, in 215 of 270 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
HMY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 48 of 60 cases where HMY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HMY as a result. In 63 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
HMY moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HMY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 16 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HMY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for HMY entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 6 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.230) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (0.645) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.098) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.996) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HMY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
IAG's RSI Indicator descends into oversold zone
The RSI Oscillator for IAG moved into overbought territory on October 22, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 59 cases where IAG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The 50-day moving average for IAG moved above the 200-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +6.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IAG advanced for three days, in 262 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
IAG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IAG as a result. In 58 of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
IAG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for IAG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IAG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for IAG entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. IAG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.313) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (8.910) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.102) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
HMY | IAG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | 54 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 34 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HMY's Valuation (6) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IAG (54). This means that HMY’s stock grew somewhat faster than IAG’s over the last 12 months.
IAG's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (43). This means that IAG’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
HMY's SMR Rating (20) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as IAG (34). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to IAG’s over the last 12 months.
IAG's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (56). This means that IAG’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
IAG's P/E Growth Rating (34) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HMY (96). This means that IAG’s stock grew somewhat faster than HMY’s over the last 12 months.
| HMY | IAG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 80% | 7 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HMY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while IAG’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- HMY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- IAG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HMY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while IAG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HMY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- IAG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HMY (@Precious Metals) experienced а -4.53% price change this week, while IAG (@Precious Metals) price change was -7.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -5.92%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -20.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
HMY is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
IAG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-5.92% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
Advertisement
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| MILK | 23.73 | 0.18 | +0.76% |
| Pacer US Cash Cows Bond ETF (MILK) | |||
| IWD | 259.05 | 0.76 | +0.29% |
| iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) | |||
| QAI | 35.65 | -0.19 | -0.53% |
| NYLIM Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI) | |||
| XC | 31.00 | -0.29 | -0.93% |
| WisdomTree True Emerging Markets Fund (XC) | |||
| OPTZ | 43.60 | -0.89 | -2.00% |
| Optimize Strategy Index ETF (OPTZ) | |||